PLFantasy

There are always new lessons to be learned when it comes to fantasy football, even when you get into the last gasps of a fading season. Last week, a fantasy rambler not too far from here noted: “Mario Balotelli . . . might be worth a punt but it really would be a risk at this point. Only those needing to gain ground on opponents should apply.” A couple of Friday night beers and YouTube videos can do funny things to a fantasy team though and come Saturday morning, Balotelli was lacing up his boots for my team, despite the fact I had everything to lose and nothing to gain in my main mini league. We’ve no more double gameweeks to get carried away with but the lesson stands – don’t overpay for upside unless you’re totally desperate. With two weeks to go a majority of people probably are desperate but 4 point hits rarely work out and I would almost never recommend using them in a non double gameweek. Observant readers might expect to see last week's Fulham clean sheet ...

I always start getting a bit nostalgic around this time of the year as reality sets in that the season is almost over and we have the long summer ahead. There are still a few weeks left though and this is an important week to negotiate with a large portion of fantasy studs involved in games against each other. The two big clashes makes for excellent TV viewing but they make fantasy lineups harder to set as players rarely have big games in the top of the table clashes. It is of course key to also remember that Spurs face the double gameweek in GW36 so be careful before you sell these assets this week due to their tough fixture. City are the other team with the double next week and given their good looking fixture this week (West Ham H) they look like solid investments right now. Clean Sheet Rankings (clean sheets kept at home or away / opponents failed to score at home or away in parenthesis) Liverpool (9 - 6) Man City (10 - 9) Blackburn (6 - 6) Birmingham (6 - 7) Chelsea (11...

Clean Sheet Rankings (clean sheets kept - opponents failed to score in parenthesis) Chelsea (10 - 8) Man Utd (9 - 4) Stoke* (2 - 4) and (5 - 6) Fulham* (3 - 3) and (8 - 5) Liverpool (7 - 4) Aston Villa (6 - 8) Tottenham (5 - 7) Sunderland (7 - 8) Blackburn (6 - 6) Wolves* (3 - 6) and (2 - 3) Man City (4 - 4) Blackpool (0 - 6) Wigan (3 - 3) Bolton* (5 - 2) and (0 - 3) Arsenal (4 - 3) Newcastle (5 - 0) Birmingham (3 - 1) West Brom (0 - 4) Everton (3 - 0) West Ham (1 - 2)  * = double gameweek Attacking Rankings (expected goals in parenthesis) Chelsea (2.48) Stoke (2.44)* Fulham (2.36)* Tottenham (2.21) Bolton (2.07)* Arsenal (1.94) Man Utd (1.64) Liverpool (1.62) Wolves (1.60)* Aston Villa (1.50) Blackpool (1.44) West Brom (1.39) Newcastle (1.21) Man City (1.15) Blackburn (1.13) Everton (1.07) Wigan (0.92) Birmingham (0.89) Sunderland (0.82) West Ham (0.75)  * = double gameweek   Captain Stats The stars seen to have aligned f...

It's vital to keep your mind with this week and not get too carried away with tuning your team up for the upcoming double gameweeks in GW33 and beyond. No matter how many doubles you have in the future, if getting them involves playing short handed in the run up, you totally negate any value you might gain. Having said that, the two highlighted DGWs lie with Arsenal and Chelsea who both enjoy a nice run of fixtures leading into the double. Arsenal in particular look to be the best investment this week though it is tough to read their injury situation with any certainty as the promising return of Fabregas and Walcott has been limited with Wenger stating he " has not decided if they will start the game ". With Van Persie also facing a late fitness the Arsenal stars look to be risky plays this week though with by the far the best fixture they might just be worth the gamble. With Denilson sidelined I would think Fabregas is the most likely to return though I think I prefer...

Clean Sheet Rankings (clean sheets kept - opponents failed to score) Man City (7 - 4) Sunderland (7 - 2) Chelsea (7 - 2) Birmingham (4 - 5) Liverpool (4 - 3) Fulham (3 - 3) Stoke (3 - 3) Arsenal (3 - 1) Tottenham (3 - 2) Wigan (2 - 4) Bolton (0 - 3) West Brom (1 - 5) Blackpool (5 - 2) Everton (2 - 1) Man Utd (2 - 2) Newcastle (3 - 2) Aston Villa (0 - 4) Wolves (1 - 3) West Ham (3 - 2) Blackburn (0 - 1) Attacking Rankings Man City Arsenal Chelsea Birmingham Tottenham Stoke Sunderland Blackpool Fulham West Brom Man Utd Blackburn Bolton West Ham Wigan Everton Newcastle Aston Villa Liverpool Wolves Captain Stats I keep suggesting it could be a statistical anomaly but Van der Vaart continues to crush mid level teams (between 1 and 1.5 GPG conceded) for 9.57 PPG. Given that he is also averaging over 7 PPG at home and 8 PPG over his last 4 games, he remains an excellent option at home this week despite the tricky fixture on paper.  Despite th...

As we approach the final third of the season, a few issues stand out that should play a major part when settling on your final wildcard lineup: Where will Arsenal's goals come from? Whatever the doomsday merchants say , Arsenal are an elite scoring team, currently ranked second in goals scored (39) and have a league leading 20 goals away from home. From a fantasy point of view though it's hard to know where a steady flow of fantasy points is going to come. I received criticism for suggesting Nasri might not be the answer to all our woes and while his minutes have been solid (he was dropped against Wigan) in the last 5 games he's added just 15 points to his total. Five players have four or more goals for Arsenal, and that doesn't even include van Persie or Fabregas. It seems that Chamakh is the odd man out in the front five, having been dropped for three of the last four games. Arshavin also seems to be out of favour and behind Walcott on the depth chart. With van P...

No time to breathe or dwell on GW 21 (which was fairly successful by recent standards) as the EPL action continues on a short week. The highlight for most will be the double gameweeks for Blackpool and Liverpool, who both also enjoy a double in GW24 (some thoughts on them below). Clean Sheet Rankings The rank order is based on the normal form adjusted expected goals per game. In parenthesis you can find the number of clean sheets (at home/away) by the listed team and the number of times the oppositon has failed to score (at home/away) Man Utd (6 - 3) Blackpool* (1 - 3) and (1 - 4) Blackburn (4 - 4) Bolton (2 - 5) Newcastle (2 - 5) Aston Villa (4 - 4) Chelsea (2 - 1) Fulham (3 - 4) Tottenham (0 - 2) Liverpool (2 - 2) and (2 - 0) Man City (3 - 1) Everton (3 - 2) Wolves (1 - 4) Arsenal (2 - 2) Sunderland (3 - 2) West Brom (0 - 2) Wigan (3 - 2) Birmingham (2 - 0) West Ham (0 - 2) Stoke (2 - 0)  *double gameweek Team Goal Rankings (form adjusted) Man City Bl...

Clean Sheet Rankings Chelsea Tottenham Liverpool Man City Sunderland West Ham Arsenal Everton Stoke Birmingham Fulham Wigan Man Utd Newcastle Blackpool West Brom Wolves Bolton Blackburn Aston Villa Attacking Rankings Man City Chelsea Man Utd Sunderland West Brom Newcastle West Ham Wigan Tottenham Blackburn Arsenal Everton Stoke Wolves Liverpool Birmingham Bolton Blackpool Fulham Aston Villa Captain Stats Van der Vaart is playing equally well at home and away though he is crushing mid level team for 10.8 PPG. As Spurs welcome Fulham this week he is a very good option and projects to score more points than anyone this week. On the flip side his last two home games have yielded just 4 points so his owners must decide whether he is a funk or just a dip in form. Tevez isn't necessarily better at home than away but he is crushing weak sides at over 7 PPG and welcomes a Blackpool side who are giving up over 1.6 GPG. As with Van der Vaart his...

At time of posting I am working on the basis that all games will go ahead as planned this week, though at least the Blackpool-Liverpool game is already looking doubtful. More updates on this will of course come later in the week but I would recommend holding off on your transfers for now and definitely not paying 4 points for any moves until we are more certain who will actually play. Clean Sheet Rankings Fulham Man Utd Blackburn Wolves Blackpool Everton Aston Villa Birmingham Arsenal Man City Bolton West Ham  Wigan Stoke Chelsea Newcastle Tottenham Liverpool Sunderland West Brom Team Goals Bolton Man Utd Blackpool Aston Villa Man City Arsenal Blackburn Wolves Fulham West Brom Newcastle Chelsea Everton Tottenham Birmingham Liverpool Wigan Stoke Sunderland West Ham Team Goals (form adjusted) Bolton Man Utd Man City Blackpool West Brom Blackburn Everton Arsenal Tottenham Chelsea Liverpool Fulham Birmingham Newcastle Stoke A...

Clean Sheet Rankings Blackburn Liverpool Man City Birmingham West Brom Chelsea Sunderland Everton Wigan Arsenal Bolton Newcastle Aston Villa Fulham Blackpool West Ham Wolves Tottenham Man Utd Stoke  Team Goal Rankings Arsenal Chelsea Blackpool West Brom Blackburn Tottenham Liverpool Wigan Birmingham Sunderland Stoke Aston Villa Man City Bolton Man Utd Wolves Newcastle Everton Fulham West Ham Team Goals (form adjusted*) West Brom Tottenham Arsenal Blackburn Man City Blackpool Sunderland Chelsea Stoke Birmingham Bolton Man Utd Wigan Aston Villa Liverpool Wolves Newcastle Everton Fulham West Ham *This formula simply adds extra weight (33%) to the last 5 games rather than the whole season. I haven't tested whether this has proven to be more effective but it's at least worth a glance. Captain Stats The captain picks this week are pretty tough with Chelsea and Man Utd squaring off on Sunday. The pick of the stats are b...

Sorry for the delay again this week, some joker at my job has got it in his head that any of those pesky clients are worth more than fantasy football rankings. Has he seen my team? I haven't topped 50 points for five weeks. Five weeks! Hopefully the below will help: Clean Sheet Rankings Sunderland Chelsea Liverpool Blackburn Arsenal Birmingham Stoke Man City West Brom Bolton Tottenham Wigan Newcastle Wolves Everton Fulham West Ham Aston Villa Attacking rankings (team goals) Liverpool (2.67) Sunderland (1.87) Arsenal (1.76) Chelsea (1.76) Blackburn (1.66) West Brom (1.42) Stoke (1.36) Birmingham (1.25) Man City (1.14) Newcastle (0.93) Bolton (0.82) Wigan (0.78) Tottenham (0.74) Fulham (0.67) Aston Villa (0.44) Wolves (0.44) Everton (0.31) West Ham (0.30) Captain Stats Tevez - Tevez has strangely been a lot better away from Eastlands (7.43 PPG) than at home (4.86 PPG) but has been very useful against sides conceding more than 1.5 GPG (7.25...

When a team loses badly they always say that the best thing is to play again soon to banish the bad memories. I am therefore very thankful for the midweek action so I don't dwell on my disastrous wildcard forray last week resulting in a miserable 24 point week. The weekly wrap up will go up Wednesday night for GW11 and GW12 combined to allow for me to get the preview column out now. Clean Sheet Rankings Chelsea (0.15) Birmingham (0.36) Aston Villa (0.35) Tottenham (0.44) Liverpool (0.79) Newcastle (0.81) Everton (0.91) Arsenal (0.92) Stoke (0.97) Wigan (1.01) Man City (1.35) Wolves (1.37) West Ham (1.43) Man Utd (1.57) Bolton (2.00) Blackpool (2.03) West Brom (2.11) Sunderland (2.14) Blackburn (2.72) Fulham (3.39) Attacking rankings Chelsea (3.39) Newcastle (2.72) Tottenham (2.14) West Ham (2.11) Aston Villa (2.03) Everton (2.00) Stoke (1.62) Man City (1.57) West Brom (1.43) Arsenal (1.37) Man Utd (1.35) Birmingham (1.16) Liverpool (1.01) Wolves...

No rambling this week as I've been moving home with boxes stacked high and much upheaval. This isn't unlike my fantasy team which is chaotic and unpredictable and might need a renovation of it's own very soon. I was saved last week by Vidic and Adam's performances but cruelly punished by last minute goals conceded by Williamson and Jaaskelainen. As you have hopefully noticed I am starting to re-design the site a bit to give everyone constant access to the stats I try and incorporate into my work. I have started with the aPPMS and aPoints to the right of this post and I will be adding short and long term strength of schedules soon. Any requests for specific data to be posted would be welcomed. Without further delay then, here are this week's rankings: Clean Sheet Rankings (expected goals conceded in parenthesis) Birmingham (0.28) Sunderland (0.38) Man Utd (0.40) Blackburn (0.60) Fulham (0.64) Arsenal (0.69) Chelsea (0.98) West Brom (1.02) Everton (1.0...

I'm putting all the design nonsense to one side to get down to some actual fantasy writing. As I'm sure most of you are chomping at the bit to get into your transfers/lineups so I will get straight down to business. Clean Sheet Rankings Aston Villa (0.43) Arsenal (0.49) Chelsea (0.56) Man City (0.69) Everton (0.72) Bolton (0.72) Newcastle (0.72) Fulham (0.77) Man Utd (0.82) Blackburn (1.26) Wolves (1.26) Wigan (1.60) Blackpool (1.72) Liverpool (1.74) Stoke (1.93) Sunderland (1.95) Birmingham (2.05) Tottenham (2.44) West Brom (2.79) West Ham (4.53) Captain Rankings Cesc Fabregas: Arsenal are the top rated team for the week with an expected 4.5 goals. Arsenal have scored 10 league goals with Fabregas on the pitch this season and he has scored or assisted three of them. This would suggest he should notch points this week and I wouldn't bet against him getting one of each, even after his penalty miss last week. Dimitar Berbatov: 38 points in 4 home ga...

We're seven weeks in and we're really starting to get a good idea on who we can rely and what trends are for real. I thought - in honor of the title of this weekly post - I would employ the help of Led Zeppelin to help explain the season so far: "Been dazed and confused for so long it's not true" Though the top five has a familiar look, the rest of pack appears upside down and fantasy value has been scattered throughout the league with minnows like Blackpool and West Brom providing good fantasy picks while teams like Liverpool and Everton have struggled to contribute. One of the lessons as always is to play the fixtures, which explain why Everton's midfield and forwards (hardest attacking schedule to date) have struggled while Birmingham's defense (2nd easiest defensive schedule) have provided some value. More confusing is the fact that West Brom have conceded 6 in 6 since GW2 while facing one of the hardest schedules around while Spurs have managed just ...

Clean Sheet Rankings  I am hesitant to try and over-engineer these rankings but it has always been my view when I read other fantasy sites that I'd prefer to have as much info as possible and then use my own judgement to decide what is best to rely on. Therefore, given that we are now 6 weeks in, I am going to include the rankings to reflect both the hybrid stats (based on last year's results and this years) as well as the rankings if you purely use this season's data. I have also included below some trends that need factoring into your decisions this week. Hybrid rankings (based on 2009/10 and 2010/11 seasons) Birmingham (0.51) + Tottenham (0.53) Liverpool (0.56) - Stoke (0.62) Man City (0.66) + West Ham (0.76) West Brom (0.78) Chelsea (0.79) Everton (0.91) + Wolves (1.11) Wigan (1.13) Man United (1.20) + Sunderland (1.31) Fulham (1.63) + Blackburn (1.67) + Aston Villa (2.00) Newcastle (2.13) Bolton (2.16) Arsenal (3.17) Blackpool (3.68) 2010/11 ran...

It's that time again to take a ramble around the league and pick out the key fantasy news, trends and stats from the weekend's action. It was an unpredictable week from both a fantasy and real world perspective and my - along with many others' - teams suffered accordingly. Six teams managed clean sheets (ranked 2nd, 7th, 11th, 12th, 14th, and 15th) though few (sane) managers will have started City players against the mighty Chelsea or indeed West Ham defenders for, well, any reason. That made defensive points aside from Birmingham somewhat sporadic as seen by Pure Juice's poor showing this week. My prediction spreadsheet also whiffed on several games only getting 9 teams' score correct within 1 goals and two teams being more than 2 goals wrong, though to be fair these were both in the wacky game at the Emirates (West Brom predicted to score 0, Arsenal predicted to score 4). Let's run round the key news for the weekend and assess the fantasy impact: Arsenal...