PLFantasy

We've added new wrinkle this week, first with the data table below, and second with the players we're going to highlight. First, let's look at the new table. It shows the key data points for every player who scored six or more points for the week, along with their actual (P) and expected points (xP) and then the difference between the two. xP is calculated based on the actual  underlying stats for the week and does not  relate to any forecasts associated with the model. What we're trying to do is identify legitimate big performances rather than those where a player, for example, notches one shot, one on target and one goal yet makes out with a nine point haul. Those points still count of course but we'd be more suspicious about their sustainability and thus they'd need more discussion (and in most causes some dousing of the fire). Where a player's points are backed up by his xP I will be more inclined to gloss over them, particularly where said player is an...

Each player who racked up 6 or more points this week has been assigned a 'Buy', "Hold' or 'Sell' status. These don't necessarily reflect what I would do, more what I believe to be a reasonable action at this time: Buy - the player can be purchased immediately taking consideration of his playing time, fixtures, injury status etc. This status does not necessarily mean you should buy him now as it depends who else you own, only that it is reasonable to do so. Hold, and/or monitor - if you own the player you're not in a rush to ditch him but there's sufficient risk here to justify potential buyers holding off. Sell - the player has too many risks and should either be sold or not purchased. This does not mean he might not have value in the future, just not right now. Note that I don't generally include defenders as so much of their value is tied to their team's success rather than their individual skill set. In the interest of time I...

Team Attacking Forecast Powered by Tableau Team Defensive Forecast Powered by Tableau Individual Player Forecast Powered by Tableau In anticipation of the inevitable "why do you hate van Persie" questions, I thought I better add a quick note on his unexpectedly low ranking here. Powered by Tableau The key difference the model sees between van Persie and Rooney is simply the percentage of United's chances he has accounted for when playing. Rooney sits at 29% in home games while van Persie comes in with a useful 20%, which based on United's forecast 14 SiB gives Rooney a forecast 1.3 shot advantage. Rooney also enjoys a distinct advantage in SoB, though given the low likelihood of those turning into goals, that doesn't have a huge impact. This all translates to a relatively slim, but not insignificant, 1.4 point lead and thus likely some scorn for these electronic pages. If I'm honest, if I owned both players and hadn...

The situation in both Manchester teams has been one of the most important issues so far this year in fantasy, and to a degree, those who have simply ignored the drama and gone with elite players from the London clubs have been rewarded. Of course, Robin van Persie and Carlos Tevez have both enjoyed plenty of success to date, but that has been achieved amidst a shroud of uncertainty, which at least in Tevez’s case is still far from cleared up. The prompt for this post is United’s prospects over the next eight gameweeks, which under the new model look simply outstanding, particularly at the attacking end of the field Powered by Tableau First, as always, a couple of caveats on this data. If we look at what Man United have done so far versus league average, their shot generation statistics are excellent, though not to a degree that would arouse suspicion about their validity. At home they’re generating 40% more shots inside the box (SiB) than the average team has against thei...

These early season rankings columns are tough as we only have prior year data to rely on, which has the potential to be outdated following the various moves in the off season. Alas, the show must go on, so without further ado here are this week's forecast goals per game for each team. Note that for the promoted sides I have used an adjusted number based on their performance in last year's Championship (further explained here ). <a href="#"><img alt="Dashboard 1 " src="http://public.tableausoftware.com/static/images/Ga/Gameweek1Preview/Dashboard1/1_rss.png" style="border: none" /&...

The best part of this time of year as a fan is that almost anything is possible and things can change dramatically in a heartbeat. The worst part about this time of the year as a fantasy manager is that almost anything is possible and things can change dramatically in a heartbeat. After putting together a high level team preview for the league's elite , United finally concluded their drawn out negotiations for Robin van Persie thus having a massive impact on both United and Arsenal's lineup for the upcoming year. With the season so close and with so many questions still unanswered (indeed the transfer hasn't even gone through yet) we can only hope to clear up what we do  know to avoid costly mistakes right out of the gate. I've put together some quick thoughts on the key players this impacts, though to be honest, we aren't going to know too much until Van Persie has played a few games for United. Robin van Persie (13.0m) I don't think anyone can say for s...

<a href="#"><img alt="Captain Data " src="http://public.tableausoftware.com/static/images/Ca/Captain38/CaptainData/1_rss.png" style="border: none" /></a> Powered by Tableau P90 Points scored per 90 minutes at home/away based on this week's opponents QG% Percentage of games played where the player scored 6 or more points xPct The percentage of his team's goals a player has accounted for, multiplied by the expected goals for this week Rating Based on the player's rankings in the other three categories. Note: above data assumes 90 minutes of action, with rotation risk not being factored in. The data hasn't liked anyone as much as Aguero this week for some ti...

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