Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Gameweek 18 Rankings

Clean Sheet Rankings
  1. Blackburn
  2. Liverpool
  3. Man City
  4. Birmingham
  5. West Brom
  6. Chelsea
  7. Sunderland
  8. Everton
  9. Wigan
  10. Arsenal
  11. Bolton
  12. Newcastle
  13. Aston Villa
  14. Fulham
  15. Blackpool
  16. West Ham
  17. Wolves
  18. Tottenham
  19. Man Utd
  20. Stoke
 Team Goal Rankings
  1. Arsenal
  2. Chelsea
  3. Blackpool
  4. West Brom
  5. Blackburn
  6. Tottenham
  7. Liverpool
  8. Wigan
  9. Birmingham
  10. Sunderland
  11. Stoke
  12. Aston Villa
  13. Man City
  14. Bolton
  15. Man Utd
  16. Wolves
  17. Newcastle
  18. Everton
  19. Fulham
  20. West Ham
Team Goals (form adjusted*)
  1. West Brom
  2. Tottenham
  3. Arsenal
  4. Blackburn
  5. Man City
  6. Blackpool
  7. Sunderland
  8. Chelsea
  9. Stoke
  10. Birmingham
  11. Bolton
  12. Man Utd
  13. Wigan
  14. Aston Villa
  15. Liverpool
  16. Wolves
  17. Newcastle
  18. Everton
  19. Fulham
  20. West Ham
*This formula simply adds extra weight (33%) to the last 5 games rather than the whole season. I haven't tested whether this has proven to be more effective but it's at least worth a glance.

Captain Stats
The captain picks this week are pretty tough with Chelsea and Man Utd squaring off on Sunday. The pick of the stats are below (though the players are not necessarily ranked in order).

  • Malouda: despite his patchy form of late he is still averaging 7.0 PPG at home and added 34 points in 3 games in which Lampard played. He should be pushed back into the front three rather than being stranded and so might regain his early season form. Obviously the fixture isn't great but United are giving up 1.43 GPG on the road so Chelsea might have a goal or two in them.
  • Bale / Van der Vaart: Spurs have the best fixture of the top teams this week and Bale and Van der Vaart (if fit) are well placed to take advantage. Bale has performed better on the road (5.5 PPG) than at home (3.89 PPG) while Van der Vaart has also shown himself to be reliable away from White Hart Lane (5.60 PPG). Blackpool have only kept one clean sheet at home and that was in GW1 against Wigan. Long story short, Spurs are going to score, it's just a case of guessing who gets the points.
  • Torres: The fixture looks better than it is (Fulham have only conceded 9 in 8 on the road) and Torres has regressed after his flurry in GW9-12. That said, he does his best work at home (5.86 PPG) adding 4 goals in 7 games at Anfield. Despite last week's blank against Sunderland, Fulham's defense has shown signs of weakness of late (7 goals in 4 games) so Torres deserves at least a look.
  • Drogba: Like teammate Malouda, Drogba has been struggling for form but has still managed to score twice in the past two games. He will surely lose penalty duties after last week's miss coinciding with the return of Frank Lampard but he still has some value. In those first 3 weeks when Lampard played, Drogba scored 4 goals, added 3 assists, was awarded 8 bonus points and had a total of 39 points. This game might define their season and if you think Drogba will shy away and disappear you're crazy.
  • Chamakh: I think Chamakh might be the pick of the Arsenal players given Stoke's tendency to concede to forwards over the past few road games. Chamakh is averaging 5.0 PPG against teams conceding 1.5 GPG and he therefore makes another solid selection this week.
  • Nasri: I know everyone will go cray if I don't at least mention Nasri here. I feel my hesitancy towards Nasri has been misconstrued as me not rating him. To clear it up, if Arsenal played in the Champions League final on Saturday he is in the team no matter who is fit. There is no question about that right now. What I do question is how he can possibly play every week. It's not a case of 'Wenger will drop x before he drops y' because he has so many options at his disposal. The only way Nasri can play every week is if Wenger departs from his season long strategy of playing two defensive mids and moves Fabregas into that role alongside Song or Wilshere. If not then he is competing for one of the wide positions with Van Persie, Arshavin, Walcott and Rosicky. I don't care where you think he ranks in that list, he won't play every week unless someone is sold or injured. For 1m less I would therefore prefer someone like Bale over the Christmas period whose only risk of missing out is a one off resting. With Fabregas and Van Persie back from injury we will see how this plays out over the coming weeks. As far as this week goes he is a decent option for the armband with 6 of his 8 goals coming at the Emirates. He is averaging 7.83 PPG at home and is performing well against all level of opponents so he makes a good play this week.
If you are wondering where Tevez is, I would not touch him until this situation is resolved. The most dangerous situation is that he is benched and then thrown on with a few minutes to go. Hence I can't consider him for the armband this week.

I think the defensive fixtures are better than the attacking options this week and so I might be tempted to throw 4 defenders out there. The captain picks are pretty uninspiring but value is available in the Arsenal team and I have a suspicion Chelsea might bounce back somewhat.

5 comments:

Ben said...

Thanks Chris. Good to see your new adjustments for form, will be interesting to see how that pans out. It certainly makes a lot of sense. My only concern is the cases where a team has a big win but then loses badly, or vice versa, which we've had a few cases of this season. But I'd imagine that overall it gives a better view, and there's only so far you can go in predicting the unpredictable.

Interesting views on Malouda's (and Drogba's) impact being boosted by Lampard's return, definitely one to watch.

Chris Glover said...

Ben - I agree with the form issue and I am thinking of how I can try and use form vs expected result rather than just pure form (to avoid biasing the results too much by a 7-0 victory for example). Thanks for the comment

Carroll=Shearer said...

Mancini has confirmed that Tevez will start against Everton:

http://www.goal.com/en-gb/news/2896/premier-league/2010/12/16/2264699/manchester-city-boss-roberto-mancini-confirms-carlos-tevez

Chris: I posted in the previous entry about Chamakh vs. Van Persie but I think you answered it with your captain rankings.

Chris Glover said...

Caroll - I think Chamakh will play the majority of games. The Eduardo/Bendtner combination got 26 PL starts last season which suggests there is room in this team for forwards outside of RvP.

I think for the next couple weeks he and Nasri are safe, after that there could be some rotation issues for everyone in this team outside of Fabregas and probably RvP when fully fit.

Andrew said...

I'm stuck trying to figure out which one to play out of Dempsey, Etherington, or Baines. Right now I have Baines in, but really any of the three could do nothing or have a 5-8 pointer. Anyone have an argument for or against one of the three?