PLFantasy

Given the number of transfers already made (290k at the time of writing), this post is potentially too late, but for those Aguero owners who haven't yet pulled the trigger on a replacement, here are a few factors to consider before you do. The Argentinian's absence seems to be being pegged anywhere between four and six weeks, which means he will almost certainly miss gameweeks 17-21 and his absence could potentially extend through GW22 or even 23 (with good squad depth City should be mindful not to push their talisman and risk further injury as seems to have been the case with Kompany in the past ). With his return therefore scheduled to coincide with the middle of the second wildcard window, the cost to buy Aguero back should essentially be ignored and value for money for right now  is  a factor. This contradicts the situation if he was missing for just a week or two, in which case it might be worth eating his cost to sit on the bench rather than lose 0.5m when you ar...

As a quick introduction for those new to the blog, this piece runs every couple of weeks during the season and looks to shine a light on those "hot" players whose "form" looks unsustainable and those "cold" players who should enjoy success in the future if they keep playing the way they have to date. The below chart shows this week's subjects, with those on the left having outscored their underlying data and those on the right having outperformed their score. Before we start, as is becoming a tendency on this blog, I need to add a quick caveat as to exactly what we're saying here. First, we are not  saying that a player will somehow "get back" or "give back" their production to date or that bad luck will necessarily follow good luck. We are saying that players' (and teams') conversion rates should regress to the mean , seeing them earn points at a rate more in line with their underlying stats (which could be a good ...