PLFantasy

A couple of weeks back, we looked at the correlation between shots on goal and goals scored and (unsurprisingly) found a pretty strong link between the two. This ground breaking research probably won't make it into the next Freakonomics book but it might help illustrate players who are getting good looks at goal but not converting their chances. I went on to mess up my explanation of regression to the mean (h/t to mustardking for correcting me) but in essence, while players who have yet to capitalise on a number of shots on target, don't suddenly find themselves 'due' a goal, if a player continues to get in good positions and take good shots, over a period of time we would expect them to score at their historical rate going forward (normally around a goal every three shots on target for elite players). Building on the shots analysis, we can now move onto to trying to predict assists. This is inherently trickier as the inputs we need to use will almost certainly invo...

Looking back at last season One of three sides (with Newcastle and Man Utd) to average over 2.0 GPG at home. Also one of three sides (with Arsenal and Man Utd) to average more than 1.5 GPG at home and on the road Failed to score a goal a surprising 9 times, equal with West Brom and once more than Blackpool 15 clean sheets ranked second only to Man City with 11 at home also second in the league (again, Man City led). Averaged just 1.05 GPG conceded on the road, a league best mark, but yet only recorded 4 clean sheets away from Stamford Bridge. Started the season with 7 clean sheets in the first 9 gameweeks; adding just 8 more over the next 29. Goalkeepers as a unit ranked 2nd overall in points (after Man City) but ranked just 16th in value for money ( P$ 0.621) Defenders were the best unit in the league with 683 points. Even with their high prices this still translated as the second best value around ( P$ 0.715 after only Fulham). At home the defensive unit was formidable, ...

I always start getting a bit nostalgic around this time of the year as reality sets in that the season is almost over and we have the long summer ahead. There are still a few weeks left though and this is an important week to negotiate with a large portion of fantasy studs involved in games against each other. The two big clashes makes for excellent TV viewing but they make fantasy lineups harder to set as players rarely have big games in the top of the table clashes. It is of course key to also remember that Spurs face the double gameweek in GW36 so be careful before you sell these assets this week due to their tough fixture. City are the other team with the double next week and given their good looking fixture this week (West Ham H) they look like solid investments right now. Clean Sheet Rankings (clean sheets kept at home or away / opponents failed to score at home or away in parenthesis) Liverpool (9 - 6) Man City (10 - 9) Blackburn (6 - 6) Birmingham (6 - 7) Chelsea (11...

Apologies but I am in my final week of traveling and so this week's preview is going to be a condensed version. I will however respond to all comments in the previous post to answer your questions and will try and get to anything posted below before Saturday. Injuries seem to be dominating the fantasy landscape at the moment with Valencia and Zamora the latest long term injuries. Modric will be back quicker than expected though this could be a double edged sword as the Spurs midfield remains a crowded place. As this is the time of year when we all need to start making changes I have included the mid-long term ranks of all players I discuss below to indicate if they are one week options or should be transfer targets. Clean Sheet Rankings Chelsea Man Utd Tottenham Blackburn Aston Villa Stoke Man City Everton WBA Sunderland Arsenal Fulham Wigan West Ham Birmingham Newcastle Liverpool Bolton Wolves Blackpool  Captain Rankings Didier Drogba Florent Malouda ...

Oscar Wilde once wrote that "everything popular is wrong"; a point echoed by the majority of my posts singing the praises of differentiation and uncovering the next sleeper. However, the selection of your star players is equally important and with just 7 weeks to go, now is a great time to assess who will shine the brightest. I am going to focus on midfielders today (and forwards tomorrow) given that the weekly value of defenders/keepers is driven too much by the form/fitness of the squad rather than an individual's ability/form. Midfielders Four double digit million players are available in the game, and it is here that our attention will be focused. I accept that an argument can be made for, say, James Milner over Andrei Arshavin but given the difference in price it seems illogical to compare those two types of player. In order to avoid too much text and to get into the numbers I have created a quick box score to summarise each player. This will be as below: Name (Go...

Football 365 were reporting earlier in the day that Frank Lampard was about to be shut down for the season after he aggravated a thigh injury on the flight to Doha this week. Poor old Frank had to suffer the frankly medieval conditions of sitting in economy class ! Perhaps Blatter and Ronaldo were right when they described modern day footballers as slaves - imagine having to sit in economy class for almost four hours. Well it seems that F365 have backtracked somewhat and the mention of being out for the season has now been removed, with the Chelsea official site suggesting three weeks and Goal.com suggesting the rest of 2009. This story could have huge fantasy implications with Lampard being considered by many (not me) to be the fantasy player and is owned by 30% of all players (6th most in the league). With Gerrard struggling for fitness and form and Fabregas in majestic form, the transfers between these two players could be monumental. The extra week off and high publicity the i...

Lampard not worried by Blues' form (Football365) - Lampard isn't worried by his team's form, but fantasy owners should be worried by Frank's. Only one goal this season is a worrying total for a 12.5m player, though 4 assists in 7 games is a nice return. The great asset for midfielders though is that they earn more points per goal than strikers so assists and bonuses are unlikely to get it done and justify his lofty price. I am far from ready to write Lampard off who is still the man-to-beat as the best in fantasy, but at least for now, I will continue to say he is overpriced based on his form and Chelsea's fixtures which are up and down for the next few weeks. Walcott back in Gunners mix (Football365) - Walcott and Bendtner are back though Eduardo is out for Wenger's men. I would imagine Bendtner will remain on the bench while Walcott has a chance to start in the front 3 alongside Van Persie and Arshavin . This brings into doubt the fantasy future of...

I thought it might be useful to do a bit of analysis on how bonus points are awarded with a hope of getting a higher return on these valuable extras available each week. First then, let's look at the facts so far, through 7 weeks of the new season: 92% of bonus points are awarded to players from the winning side, 51% of bonus points are awarded to players who score a goal during the week, The top 5 strikers account for 36% of all points awarded to forwards. The top 5 midfielders account for just 13% of midfield points, 47% of all bonus points awarded to midfielders have been given to players who cost 6m or less. This figure is only 24% for strikers, Goalkeepers account for just 4% of bonus points awarded and Ben Foster is the only 'keeper to score any points (2) from the big four sides, 32% of all defenders' bonus points have been given to a defender that scored that day, The 'big five' teams (including City) account for 38% of all bonus points awarded; including 44...

England 5 -1 Croatia Braces from Lampard and Gerrard along with a goal for in-form Rooney served to underline the strength of the top fantasy players available. Lennon also played well and has all but convinved me that he is the logical choice to replace Modric for those with the extra bit of cash - 0.3m - to spare. The main thing is that there were injuries and a goal for Eduardo will also be welcomed by the Arsenal fans. Scotland 0-1 Hollland De Jong, van Persie and Kuyt all played a part here and got through the game unscathed. Kuyt should have scored at least once where as van Persie was largely quiet. Kuyt looks like a great bet this week at home to Burnley and he will take confidence from another good performance here, though his booking for diving was not good to see. Hutton, Alexander and Fletcher were all in action for Scotland with, again, no injuries noted. Elia's goal was brilliantly taken and I think we might here more than that boy in the future. Serbia 1-1 France Ev...

After week 1, fantasy fans were happy with Ancelotti for providing them two premier strike options up front, as well as pushing Lampard into a more advanced role, with Drogba benefiting the most with his brace against Hull. However, after week 2, many will have a different opinion with Ancelotti having no place in the side for Anelka (Kalou), Malouda (Deco) or Carvalho (Ivanovic). I have questioned the long term value of Malouda before due to the potential to rotate him for Deco, Zhirkov or Cole but I expected Anelka and Carvlaho to be all but guaranteed a weekly spot. Ancelotti explained , "I changed the team because I trust my players and I wanted to rest some. I know we have quality in the other players and I want to use them and keep them all fresh." This is not good news for fantasy fans and I have downgraded the aforementioned players due to the fact that (a) they might be rotated and (b) they are likely to come off the bench, hence preventing your sub from coming in. C...

If your team is based around 11 7m guys then this article isn't for you. If however, like most fantasy players you like to have a premier player or two, then read on for some thoughts on how to pick your lynch pin. The main advantage in my eyes of bringing in a premier player for your team is the fact you can captain him and bring in a unrivalled amount of points. For example, last year Lampard scored 226 points, which would give you 452 points if you captained him every week. Even at his steep price tag of 12.5m this season, a similar level of production would lead to a 0.952 PPMS and almost 12 points per game. This kind of production is just not possible from 2 or even 3 mid level players, even if you strike it rich with a cheap superstar like Stephen Ireland. Factor in the chance to find a bargain to play alongside your stud (perhaps Larsson, Jimenez or Muamba) and the choice to grab a star player appears to be made for you. But who do you take? With over a tenth of your whole b...

Taking a break from the statistical analysis, lets take a trip around the league and see what managers, players and even pundits are talking about, as we try and glean some concrete information upon which to base our fantasy strategies: Frank Lampard is my new Kaka This one all but confirms Frank's return to my team, with a promotion to default Captain highly likely. For those who don't follow Italian football, here is Kaka's line from last season at Milan: 31 appearances (3 as sub), 16 goals, 9 assists Lampard , in his fantasy leading 226 point season had 12 goals and 10 assists, so the type of production seen above would be outstanding. Of course, I think we all agree that Kaka is a more gifted player but Anelotti's system does promise much and in light of Gerrard's court issues (see below) I think Lampard is the premier player in the league right now. Lampard also converted a penalty against Inter , as if to further underline his fantasy...

After two more miserable performances from Ronaldo over the Christmas period, many owners are getting close to dumping Ronaldo and the net transfers for the week are in a small outflow position. I myself was considering dumping him for Gerrard until Gerrard's off the field antics cast doubt over his future for the coming weeks. Three points need raising though before any rash decisions are made: 1. Ronaldo still leads all fantasy players with 6.67 points per game ( PPG ) which equates to a Points Per Million Spent ( PPMS ) of 0.457, which is ahead of Deco (o.444) and Fabregas (0.424) among others. If you have captained Ronaldo every week (or even just a few of his 15 point+ performances) then his PPMS will be up with anyone else in the league. It is also important to remember that value for money ( ie PPMS ) will only carry your team a certain distance and it is actual points ( PPG ) that really matters. 2. United have two double gameweeks in the next 5 and then have a 3 g...

After suffering through another miserable fantasy weekend which saw me slip in the standings for the 4 th week running and surrender my once solid 120 point lead my work league I have decided to implement two new strategies. The second one to be discussed in a separate article is that I will now be employing a 3-man striking rotation of mid-priced strikers based on match up . The first to be discussed here is that my team selection has gotten too cute and I will now focus on the following key factors when selecting my squad and team lineup: 1. Don't select players who I do not rate as good or better, no matter what they have done in the last couple of weeks. As they say, form is temporary, class is permanent. I've had Carlton Cole, Javier Garrido , Jonas Olsson , Edwin Van Der Sar and Andy Dawson, all of whom I rate no better than average Premiership players (van der Sar once was obviously a class keeper). 2. Don't take avoiding point chasing to a ridiculous degree. La...

For those of you with Ronaldo in your team - that's a quarter of you - the weekly question is whether anyone should take the armband from your premium midfielder. Since I bought him in week 7 I have captained Ronaldo every week and he has had 2 poor weeks, 2 good weeks and 2 monster weeks, averaging 8.33 points over that 6 game stretch. Last week was a stupid move captaining him against Arsenal rather than Lampard against Blackburn , and I am now cautious about captaining him again this week. I know I know, Stoke have shipped 10 in 6 on the road, and 19 in total, and I know that Ronaldo has now scored in his last 10 domestic home games, but my question is whether he will play. Looking back to last year is encouraging as Ronaldo featured in 34 league games, and of the 4 he missed, three were due to suspension. However, with his injury over the summer potentially still lingering, will Ferguson be tempted to drop his leading man? On the other hand, you can be almost certain that ...