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Dousing the fire, fanning the flames: Gameweek 4

In the first of a new regular series, we're going to look at the week's top fantasy performers (purely measured by fantasy points) and look at the evidence as to whether their success is sustainable or whether the inevitable hype needs to be ignored. Where possible I will draw on the available stats but I'll also add more subjective comments regarding a player's future playing time or other possible risks. Without wishing to be negative, more often than not we're going to be dousing fires here as you don't need me to tell you after yet another Carlos Tevez goal that he's a good player. I'm also going to stay away from defenders who purely earned their points from defensive means as the sustainability of those is a whole other ball game that needs more than just a line or two per player. Each player has been assigned a 'Buy', "Hold' or 'Sell' status. These don't necessarily reflect what I would  do, more what I believe to b...

Welcome back

Here we go again. Enjoy your last few stress-free Friday evenings, fill your mind with philosophical musings about the meaning of life and soak up those precious sun rays while you still can (that one might not apply to readers in Manchester), for we all know those freedoms will end in just a mere matter of weeks. The annual release of the pl.com player price list marks the start of the footballing season for me, and that landmark event is now in the rear view mirror for 2012 (By the way, how is this day  still   not  a public holiday? Honestly, wouldn't you have preferred a day to tinker with your team than watch Tom Jones and Suggs sing to the Queen?). It's also the first time in a couple of months that I've faced the reality of a Bolton-less Premier League, though   I'm sure most of you will get over that one quicker than me. Silver lining fans may well note that at least I will avoid the twinge of guilt when a small part of me is satisfied with a Van Persie ...

Lineup Lessons Gameweek 24

Arsenal Szczesny, Koscielny, Mertesacker, Vermaelen, Coquelin, Song, Rosicky, Arteta, Walcott, van Persie, Oxlade-Chamberlain Subs: Fabianski, Sagna, Park, Henry, Ramsey, Arshavin, Benayoun. Nothing to see here folks, keep on moving. We all knew Van Persie would play and definitely didn't strip him of the captain's armband in the early hours of the morning, right? I maintain there was an strong argument to not captain Van Persie this week but perhaps it was too risk averse. The outcome obviously indicates he should have been captained but the process is less clear. A tough call gone wrong and apologies to anyone who I swayed the wrong way. On a brighter note, having impressed of late in a handful of appearances, the Ox got his rewards with a couple of well taken goals. He is  the form wide player in Arsenal's side and looks likely to continue his run in the first team. At such a young age he comes with a risk of rotation but I really like him as a differential opti...

The form fallacy

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Any time one of the league's better players struggles for goalscoring form and then breaks his drought, you will inevitably hear the commentator point out that while his poor 'form' was temporary, his class is permanent. We aren't here to perform autopsies on former stars of previous decades to suggest their class was anything but permanent, but instead we will examine the very notion of 'form' and how this is reflected in a player's goalscoring record (and hence fantasy success). A player is described as being 'in form' under two distinct scenarios. The first is where a (rare) commentator has actually watched all of that players' games, assessed his overall performance and concluded that he is playing up to his full potential. The second, and much more common occurrence, is where an 'expert', or more pertinently here, a fantasy manager, will assess that a player is in form because he's scored a couple of goals in the last few week...

Gameweek 12 Preview

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No matter what happens in the world or how I spend my time, the preview article after an international break is like trying to recall what you ate for dinner four weeks ago. Is Aguero still good? What kind of form is Amr Zaki in this year? Did I have pasta three nights running? I recently described Bolton's home form as improving 'a few weeks back', after they hammered Stoke. That's right, I have zero concept of time without my Saturday morning sun dial. Lucky for us, pretty much nothing happened. Suarez was charged followed the alleged racist comments, though Sepp Blatter doesn't seem to be too concerned (is there anything more worrying than the head of any body being (rightfully) scolded by Rio Ferdinand : the beacon on common sense in this whole debate. This might be the sign of the apocalypse Harold Camping was waiting for). Aguero gave us a scare but then played for Argentina. England gave their fans just enough promise to overreact to and thus be crush...

The draining pool of talent

Depth is universally seen as a virtue. We all like to be well informed to avoid being 'shallow'. Managers praise the depth of their teams, and, well, no one wants to take a dive into a paddling pool. The same is true in fantasy - the deeper the pool of talent, the more options we have, and the more opportunities there are to differentiate our teams. With the international break giving us time to catch our collective breath, I thought it might be useful to look at the current pool of talent, and assess how it looks after 7 weeks. The below are the players who I feel should register on our radars. I'm not saying they all represent great investments right now, just that, as things stand, they could hold some value in the short-medium term. A couple of points to clarify before we start. Anyone suffering from a long term injury (even if close to returning) is excluded. You can't be caught picking up injured players too early and so the likes of Glen Johnson or Steve Gerr...

Gameweek 5 Preview

In years past, Chelsea playing away at Old Trafford would have caused countless issues for fantasy managers, who would have been forced to contemplate how to use their Chelsea assets. No more. Aside from the emerging Mata, Chelsea have become a fantasy afterthought and instead it's Man City and Liverpool's tricky trips causing us issues this week. The best fixtures for the week appear to belong to some of the mid-level teams, with Bolton and Everton looking like the pick of the bunch. Without further ado then, here are this week's clean sheet and attacking rankings: Clean Sheet Rankings Forecast goals conceded and clean sheets kept - opponents failed to score in parenthesis Aston Villa vs Newcastle (0.86 8-8) Everton vs Wigan (1.05 6-9) Man Utd vs Chelsea (1.10 11-8) Sunderland vs Stoke (1.12 7-10) Swansea vs West Brom (1.14 n/a - 9) Tottenham vs Liverpool (1.17 5-6) Wolves vs QPR (1.22 4 - n/a) Man City @ Fulham (1.31 6-4) Stoke @ Sunderland (1.36 4...

Lineup Lessons: Gameweek 4

Arsenal Szczesny, Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Gibbs, Ramsey, Frimpong, Arteta, Arshavin, Walcott, van Persie. Subs: Fabianski, Park, Andre Santos, Djourou, Chamakh, Benayoun, Coquelin. This lineup is what most predicted, though I am little surprised that Benayoun didn't get a chance ahead of Arshavin or Walcott, who have both flattered to deceive so far this year. Arshavin grabbed a fortuitous goal was pretty quiet throughout while Walcott had another game of promising positions turning into wasted chances. Benayoun got half an hour but was often pushed back with defensive duties, though he did play a couple of nice through balls to spring Arsenal counter attacks. I almost brought Ramsey in this week on the basis that this team will surely start scoring goals soon, but Arsenal just don't look too dynamic at the moment and even with great fixtures can't be relied upon for big goal hauls. Defensively, the team obviously looked better than last week though Swansea sti...

Gameweek 4 Preview

It seems like an eternity since the last Premier League games, though despite my dislike for the international break , we actually got through relatively unscathed with only a few injuries of note. In short, we've lost Van der Vaart, Vermaelen, Jarvis, Nasri, Richards, Long and Bent though from that group only Van der Vaart and Vermaelen look like the long term casualties. Hopefully you resisted the urge to jump into any rash decisions immediately after the last gameweek finished and so can take these latest developments in stride as you look to shape your team for the coming weeks. A few readers have asked about playing their wildcard, which probably deserves a separate post, but given a lack of other stories for this week I thought it might be worth quickly discussing here. For me, the key is striking a balance between not overreacting but acting quickly enough to avoid stubbornly holding on to worthless assets. You should be in a position where you need  to get rid...