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Showing posts with the label Dimitar Berbatov

Dimitar Berbatov and small sample sizes

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There's been some chatter these past couple of weeks about Dimitar Berbatov's perceived decline, with Bryan Ruiz's absence being suggested by a number of sources as the main factor. Fantasy Football Scout members can read their well reasoned and logical take on the issue here . This post is not a rebuke to that or any other post - indeed Ruiz's absence might be a legitimate reason for Berbatov's apparent decline - I just want to highlight the danger of cherry picking stats and using small sample sizes to make data fit with a convenient narrative. Using just the last three games without Ruiz seems to be a touch imprecise as we have a number of other gameweeks from this very season where Berbatov played without his Costa Rican pal (GW3, 4 and 8, plus two games where Ruiz only came on a sub - GW5 and 9). Looking at Berbatov's data simply split between those minutes with Ruiz and those without gives a closer situation than the disaster some have suggested, but we...

Dousing the fire, fanning the flames: Gameweek 11

Each player who racked up 6 or more points this week has been assigned a 'Buy', "Hold' or 'Sell' status. These don't necessarily reflect what I would do, more what I believe to be a reasonable action at this time: Buy - the player can be purchased immediately taking consideration of his playing time, fixtures, injury status etc. This status does not necessarily mean you should buy him now as it depends who else you own, only that it is reasonable to do so. Hold, and/or monitor - if you own the player you're not in a rush to ditch him but there's sufficient risk here to justify potential buyers holding off. Sell - the player has too many risks and should either be sold or not purchased. This does not mean he might not have value in the future, just not right now. Note that I don't generally include defenders as so much of their value is tied to their team's success rather than their individual skill set. Dimitar Berbatov 16 Not ...

Dousing the fire, fanning the flames: Gameweek 5

In this weekly series, each player has been assigned a 'Buy', "Hold' or 'Sell' status. These don't necessarily reflect what I would do, more what I believe to be reasonable action at this time: Buy - the player can be purchased immediately taking consideration of his playing time, fixtures, injury status etc. This status does not necessarily mean you should buy him now as it depends who else you own, only that it is reasonable to do so Hold, and monitor - if you own the player you're not in a rush to ditch him but there's sufficient risk here to justify potential buyers holding off. Sell - the player has too many risks and should either be sold or not purchased. This does not mean he might not have value in the future, just not right now. Ashley Cole 15 points Cole took his goal very well this week but it was probably another factor which boosted his value more: John Terry being benched. With that, along with the ominous presence of A...

Dousing the fire, fanning the flames: Gameweek 4

In the first of a new regular series, we're going to look at the week's top fantasy performers (purely measured by fantasy points) and look at the evidence as to whether their success is sustainable or whether the inevitable hype needs to be ignored. Where possible I will draw on the available stats but I'll also add more subjective comments regarding a player's future playing time or other possible risks. Without wishing to be negative, more often than not we're going to be dousing fires here as you don't need me to tell you after yet another Carlos Tevez goal that he's a good player. I'm also going to stay away from defenders who purely earned their points from defensive means as the sustainability of those is a whole other ball game that needs more than just a line or two per player. Each player has been assigned a 'Buy', "Hold' or 'Sell' status. These don't necessarily reflect what I would  do, more what I believe to b...

Man United

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I started this post saying how the FA Cup weekend offers little guidance as to fantasy tips and only serves as a series of games in which our players get injured. However, I then tuned into the late kick off at Old Trafford in time to see Berbatov look incredibly dangerous and Ronaldo impotent once more. I have previously stated my recommendation to hold two United defenders over the next 5-6 weeks which means I only have room for one of these men in the side. I, along with many others, have held Ronaldo all season, who despite being the 5 th top points scorer, has failed to justify his lofty price tag. My original strategy was to hold him until at least the two double gameweeks pass, but I am now leaning towards Berbatov to capitalise on this scheduling anomaly. Berbatov's cup goal today gives him 4 goals in 5 along with 5 bonus points in his last 4 premier league outings. Ronaldo on the other hand hasn't scored in the league since 15 November. Berbatov is himself r...

Injury update

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Damn those friendlies, my team is in shreds. Here's a quick run though of the injury news, with further updates to come in the week. Arsenal The big news out of the international break for the Gunners is that Walcott is out for as long as three months (shoulder). He is an obvious sell for anyone who has him. In terms of replacements, Eboue will get a game over the next few weeks, especially because Sagna is also injured (ankle). Eboue has been injured himself though maybe back this week to face City, though don't expect a clean sheet as City have scored a massive 16 in 6 at the Middle Eastlands this season. Van Persie and Adebayour both return, though Fabregas will miss out due to suspension. The seemingly out of favour Toure has also picked up a knock and will probably not figure. A rare bright spot is that Eduardo is close to returning to training. Aston Villa Martin O'Neill is sweating on the fitness of Carew this week though he could be set to return having been nam...

Injury Roundup/Week Ahead

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Everton v Fulham No regular first teamers are out for either side. Everton players are a good bet this week with Fulham not travelling too well this year (only 2 goals in 4 games scored). The impressive Fulham defense is less so on the road having failed to keep a clean sheet so far. One to watch: Tim Cahill Chelsea v Sunderland Carvalho is back on the sidelines and could be out for up to three weeks. This makes Alex (5.6) an interesting prospect once more with Sunderland at home this week and decent fixtures after that (@Bla, @WH, New). Ballack and Drogba are also sidelined, though there is a chance Cole could return. If you own him for some reason I'd probably keep him out for one more week. Craig Gordon is also a doubt though you want to avoid him anyway in what should be a win for the home side. One to watch: Alex Man Utd v Hull Hargreaves and Scholes are still out which means Carrick, Fletcher and Anderson will battle it our for playing time. I wouldn't suggest that any o...

Week 10 Rising Stars

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A great night of football tonight, highlighted by the amazing 4-4 North London derby, served up a plethora of fantasy points and raised a number of rising stars Rising Stars The Spurs midfielders appear to be getting their act together and could be steals at this point of the season with Jenas (6.8), Modric (6.9), Bentley (7.2) and Lennon (6.7) all notching at least 5 points tonight. The fixture list isn't the best (Liv,@ManC,@Ful) so it might be best to monitor the situation over the coming weeks to see if Spurs really have turned a corner. Ma rouane Fellaini has scored 3 in 4 on his way to a very healthy 0.808 PPMS . Everton have a good looking fixture list coming up ( Ful , @Wes, Mid) and 'screech' may be worth a shot for those looking for someone to differentiate their team held by 0.3%). Michael Turner is a player I alluded to in a previous article and the buy rating remains despite Hull's 3-0 beating tonight by Chelsea. They play Man United next week but af...

The season so far . . .

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So far its been a pretty successful season, having scored 466 points and lying 620th place after gameweek 8. However, having already used my wildcard to get into the Ronaldo sweepstakes, it is vital that I use my transfers wisely over the coming weeks. A quick look at my team in terms of Points per Million Spent makes interesting reading (I have assumed that I will captain Ronaldo every week): E.Van der Sar The big Dutchman has been a great acquisition for me, notching 3 clean sheets in the 3 games I've had him. Indeed he's been great value all season notching 4 clean sheets in the 6 full games he's played. I can't see why he is still 5.9m and I am sure he will rise in value in the next couple of weeks. With United facing only one hard game over the next 5 (@Ars) now is as good a time as any to buy Van der Sar. M.Schwarzer I'm pleased with Schwarzer's value and only Myhill (4m) has scored more points for the same value. Sorenson and Turnbull are also decent buy...