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Showing posts from September, 2009

Bonus Point Analysis

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I thought it might be useful to do a bit of analysis on how bonus points are awarded with a hope of getting a higher return on these valuable extras available each week. First then, let's look at the facts so far, through 7 weeks of the new season: 92% of bonus points are awarded to players from the winning side, 51% of bonus points are awarded to players who score a goal during the week, The top 5 strikers account for 36% of all points awarded to forwards. The top 5 midfielders account for just 13% of midfield points, 47% of all bonus points awarded to midfielders have been given to players who cost 6m or less. This figure is only 24% for strikers, Goalkeepers account for just 4% of bonus points awarded and Ben Foster is the only 'keeper to score any points (2) from the big four sides, 32% of all defenders' bonus points have been given to a defender that scored that day, The 'big five' teams (including City) account for 38% of all bonus points awarded; including 44

Gameweek 7 Wrap-up

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Firstly, apologies if anyone used my awful defensive rankings to select their team this week. There were only four clean sheets for the week and none of them were in my top five (though City are yet to play). My captain rankings fared slightly better ranking backing third top scorer Torres, though this was hardly rocket science with his home game to Hull. I am therefore working on new ways to evaluate these predictions to try and do better in the future. A few trends continue to present themselves this season, as discussed below: Year of the striker Without wishing to sound like a broken record, the strategy of picking top scorers paid dividends again this week with Torres (17 points), Van Persie (9), Drogba (6), Berbatov (8) and Keane (21) all having productive weeks. Of strikers valued at over 8m, everyone who played gained at least 6 points apart from Rooney, Defoe and Anelka. Based on matchups only Defoe and Anelka were disappointments here. Of the midfielders valued at over 8m, on

Gameweek 7 Diary

Here we go again, for what has the potential to be a great day of Premier League action. Seven 3pm kick offs today, as well as a great London derby (Ful-Ars) at 5.30pm later. Chelsea, Liverpool and United are all in action at 3pm and there is the opportunity for plenty of goals. Portsmouth are trailing Everton by a Louis Saha goal to nil would around 10 minutes to play. I only managed to catch the last 20 minutes of this one and Portsmouth have actually had the more chances. Sad news is that Steve Pienaar was stretchered off with what looked like a knee injury though having tried to continue for a few minutes, it hopefully isn't too bad. He was replaced by new boy Bilyaletdinov (Bily from now on, please) who has looked lively but failed to create a concrete chance. The assist went to the other new arrival John Heitinga , who started in place of Tony Hibbert at the back. Saha now has 8 goals in his last 11 starts for the Blues and might be useful replacement for Bent owners concer

Gameweek 7 Preview

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Gameweek 7 fixtures Portsmouth v Everton Birmingham v Bolton Blackburn v Aston Villa Liverpool v Hull City Stoke City v Man Utd Tottenham v Burnley Wigan v Chelsea Fulham v Arsenal Sunderland v Wolves Man City v West Ham It could be a great week to have players from the big sides as all top s even sides are strong favourites to win this week. In fantasy terms, Liverpool, Spurs and Chelsea have particularly attractive fixtures and should be a good source of points this week. Of the big four sides, Liverpool are by the far the strongest p lay, with the bookies offering 23-1 odds on a Hull victory. Liverpool have the most home goals this season while the Tigers have the second worst away record. The potential for goals is so strong that it might be worth considering using your transfer solely for the purpose of getting Torres or Gerrard in just for this week. Captain Rankings 1. Steven Gerrard 2. Fernando Torres 3. Jermaine Defoe 4. Frank Lampard 5. Nicholas Anelka As noted above, three

Gunning for answers

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It seems sometimes that Arsene Wenger's side are polarising in the Premier League despite being, for me, the second most enjoyable side in the world to watch (after European Champions Barcelona). Fans of the other big four sides mock their lack of trophies and others call them underachievers or even cheats . Whatever their merits, they have been in sublime goal scoring form this year (17 goals in 5 games) and their upcoming fixtures look promising. A few questions have been posed over where we should rate Cesc and company and who looks likely to play in the coming weeks, so lets have an in-depth look at their team and what we can expect over the next few weeks. Who will play in Wenger's bes t eleven? It appears that eight spots are pretty much locked down, and will be occupied by the same players barring injury or the occasional rest. These are Almunia (6.0), Clichy (6.3), Gallas (6.6), Vermaelen (6.7) and Sagna (6.3) at the back; Fabregas (10.6) in midfield and Arshavin (10.7

Gameweek 6 Wrapup

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Another great weekend of action is in the books, and some interesting conclusions can be drawn: The big four is still a big four, at least for now. The two big challengers stepped up, and were duly dispatched by their more successful neighbours, with Spurs putting up less of a fight than City. City were unfortunate to lose in the circumstances but overall their defensive frailty, particularly in the air, were exposed and they will struggle to break the big four unless this area is improved. Spurs meanwhile were easily dismissed, and again, despite being unlucky to not get a penalty for a foul on Robbie Keane, they were easily the weaker side on the day. The big strikers keep on rolling. I feel somewhat vindicated for my controversial decision to drop Lampard in favour of big name strikers, as Drogba, Van Persie, Torres, Rooney and Agbonlahor all finding the net. Of the 8m+ midfielders only Cesc, Kuyt and Ballack scored for their respective sides. The promoted sides are for real and all

Pure Juice rocked as captain Lampard is sold

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Manchester (AP) -- The fantasy world was rocked today when the Juice announced there new lineup and Frank Lampard was nowhere to be seen. "I can confirm that with great regret and hesitation Frank Lampard has been sold and will be replaced by Cesc Fabregas", commented manager Glover. In what was a busy week for the Juice, with no less than 12 changes to the squad, Glover was quick to add that the team will be able to gel quickly and that he expects a big gameweek 6 from all the new players. "A few of the new lads were brought in specifically with the next few weeks in mind and they need to deliver as soon as possible". Glover is in no doubt referring to Villa paid Collins and Dunne who face Portsmouth at home today, where a clean sheet is expected by most pundits. While his strategy has not been made clear, the likely lineup for gameweek 6 is: T.Sorensen A.Cole J.Collins R.Dunne M.Turner C.Fabregas S.Wright Phillips Y.Benayoun D.Drogba R.Van Persie (c) D.Bent Glover

Gameweek 6 Preview

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Gameweek 6 fixtures Burnley v Sunderland Arsenal v Wigan Aston Villa v Portsmouth Bolton v Stoke Hull v Birmingham West Ham v Liverpool Man Utd v Man City Wolves v Fulham Everton v Blackburn Chelsea v Tottenham Sunday serves up a couple of epic derby matchups where as Saturday provides several opportunities for stronger teams to have some fantasy joy over weaker sides. I love Martinez's confidence and c ommitment to the beautiful game , but Wigan simply do not have the players to keep possession against Arsenal and often the teams who take on Wenger's men with such expectations are often the ones who get shot down. The trip to Burnley also provides a good game to gauge just how good Sunderland can be as Burnley have played well at home this year while Sunderland have managed just one goal on their travels. I also like Villa's chances against Pompey who have yet to gel all their new signings, and Villa should be good for a clean sheet and a few goals in that one. Clean Sheet

Bonus Round

As the debate between expensive strikers and midfielders rages on, I thought I'd look at how bonuses affect this question. To date, midfielders have earned 105 bonus points where as forwards account for 82 (for the record defenders contribute 76 and keepers 13). The big difference is how these points are distributed with the forward's points going to just 22 players, where as 41 midfielders have gained the approval of the pundits to date. At the top of each bracket, 11 players valued at 8m+ account for 30% of all midfield bonus points but for forwards this is even greater, with 10 8m+ players accounting for 55% of all forward points. This shows how the premium strikers are attracting a greater percentage of the points on offer. Taking the top three premium players at each position shows this in even harsher light: Lampard, Gerrard and Fabregas - 13 bonus points (12% of midfield total) Adebayor, Rooney and Drogba - 27 bonus points (33% of forward total) Looking at the bargains a

Wild Wild Week

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As a few of you may have gathered from my tweeting and comments over the weekend, I playing my wildcard this weekend, as I am sure a few others are considering doing. Otis posted that it might be fun to run through my thoughts, so here is my old team, followed by the proposed new team: Expired Juice Thomas Sorensen Second among all keepers (playing a game less than many) and first in PPMS (1.585), Sorensen has been this year's Schwarzer and pretty much a must own. Unfortunately most people identified this before the season so we haven't see a meteoric price rise for the former Villa man. He should return from injury this week and he will be staying in the Juice ranks as long as he remains fit. Ben Foster Fourth in points among keepers but only 10th in terms of PPMS, I am satisfied if not thrilled with Foster but with Vidic and Ferdinand back from injury the clean sheets should be more frequent for United, and with Van der Sar still a way from returning, and Foster aiming to ho

Gameweek 5 Wrapup

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We were treated to a great weekend of action with 36 goals and big wins for City, United and Liverpool. A huge performance by Yossi Benayoun dominated the fantasy headlines, though Adebayor was also in the limelight for good and bad reasons . As predicted, clean sheets were hard to come by with only 3 on offer all weekend. For me, the weekend confirmed something I have been thinking since the season started, and threw up a new group of players that could play into a new strategy: Premium Strikers are for real In previous years the consensus strategy has been to spend big on midfield and plug in mid range or budget strikers, with the likes of Carlton Cole, James Beattie, Kevin Davies etc being popular choices. This year is shaping up very differently. The six most expensive strikers available are all in the top eight at their position, with four in the top five (Defoe being the odd man out). Rooney and Defoe have five goals, Drogba, Adebayor and Bent have four and Torres has three. Onl

Gameweek 5 Preview

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There's a change of pace for this week's preview as I feel the game-by-game run-through often just tells you what you already know (Gerrard is a good play against Burnley - no kidding) and doesn't give you what you really want. I will therefore focus on 4 categories to help you make your decisions: - best clean sheet bet - captain rankings - game predictions - long term strength of schedules (for forward planning). Let me know what you guy s think and if any of the features are particular useful or if you could do without them. With that in mind, let the weekly preview begin . . . Gameweek 5 fixtures Blackburn v Wolves Liverpool v Burnley Man City v Arsenal Portsmouth v Bolton Stoke v Chelsea Sunderland v Hull Wigan v West Ham Tottenham v Man Utd Birmingham v Aston Villa Fulham v Everton Clean Sheet R ankings 1. Liverpool 2. Blackburn 3. West Ham 4. Sunderland 5. Bolton I don't like that many teams this week for clean sheets with Liverpool looking like the only odds on