Friday, November 5, 2010

Gameweek 11 Preview

No rambling this week as I've been moving home with boxes stacked high and much upheaval. This isn't unlike my fantasy team which is chaotic and unpredictable and might need a renovation of it's own very soon. I was saved last week by Vidic and Adam's performances but cruelly punished by last minute goals conceded by Williamson and Jaaskelainen.

As you have hopefully noticed I am starting to re-design the site a bit to give everyone constant access to the stats I try and incorporate into my work. I have started with the aPPMS and aPoints to the right of this post and I will be adding short and long term strength of schedules soon. Any requests for specific data to be posted would be welcomed.

Without further delay then, here are this week's rankings:

Clean Sheet Rankings
(expected goals conceded in parenthesis)
  1. Birmingham (0.28)
  2. Sunderland (0.38)
  3. Man Utd (0.40)
  4. Blackburn (0.60)
  5. Fulham (0.64)
  6. Arsenal (0.69)
  7. Chelsea (0.98)
  8. West Brom (1.02)
  9. Everton (1.05)
  10. Blackpool (1.13)
  11. Bolton (1.20)
  12. West Ham (1.21)
  13. Tottenham (1.25)
  14. Man City (1.33)
  15. Stoke (1.42)
  16. Wigan (1.53)
  17. Liverpool (1.62)
  18. Aston Villa (2.03)
  19. Newcastle (2.99)
  20. Wolves (3.78)
Captain Rankings: Team Goals
(expected goals scored in parenthesis)
  1. Man Utd (3.78)
  2. Arsenal (2.99)
  3. Fulham (2.03)
  4. Chelsea (1.62)
  5. Blackburn (1.53)
  6. Sunderland (1.42)
  7. West Brom (1.33)
  8. Bolton (1.25)
  9. Birmingham (1.21)
  10. Tottenham (1.20)
  11. Everton (1.13)
  12. Blackpool (1.05)
  13. Man City (1.02)
  14. Liverpool (0.98)
  15. Newcastle (0.69)
  16. Aston Villa (0.64)
  17. Wigan (0.60)
  18. Wolves (0.40)
  19. Stoke (0.38)
  20. West Ham (0.28)
Captain Rankings: Players
  1. Nani*: I can't keep him from top spot for any longer though it's looking likely the Portuguese winger will miss out through injury. If he plays though, he's number one.
  2. Dimitar Berbatov: With no Rooney and probably no Nani, Berbatov needs to step up in this one and take the strain. 
  3. Cesc Fabregas: My favorite player hasn't really shone since returning from injury but he played well against City and you feel it's a matter of time before goals and points come his way. Newcastle only have one road clean sheet this season so this could be the week Cesc marks his return to the fantasy elite.
  4. Didier Drogba: His early form has faltered a bit but he netted in midweek and faces a Liverpool side who he has scored 3 and assisted 3 goals against in the past 4 meetings. His must own status in wavering but he's still very very good.
  5. Samir Nasri: I was a bit worried about Fabregas' impact on Nasri but he was heavily involved against City and actually had more touches than Cesc (though he was pushed a bit wider). He isn't likely to reach double figures again but I like him as a player to give you plenty of 6-8 point games throughout the season.
* Injury risk

Plenty of good clean sheet options this week make the captain picks pretty thin but as with the past few weeks you are really looking at United, Arsenal and Chelsea to supply your skipper. With United down to one true star this list is getting shorter by the week. It might be a week to field 4 at the back and limit your strike-force if they play tough games.

13 comments:

Soo Kyo said...

hey, thanks for post always.
just wanted you let you know, Malouda is definetely out for this weekend's game

Chris Glover said...

Thanks Soo Kyo. I just read that too. I've updated the post

Ryan said...

Chris,

Not sure if it's just my computer but the link to your twitter page (plfantasy) doesn't work because there's an extra "!/" in the URL. Just thought I'd let you know :)

bjørn said...

Hi all, I need to make a change in defence this week. I was hoping Bos would play a lot when i picked him up but it seems Ancelotti likes him on the bench. Ivanovic is in my opinion a good option now with good fixtures coming up for chelsea. Any thoughts? Also, would it be wise to maybe get a cheap tottenham def next week with their fixtures looking a bit better? cheers for the input people

Chris Oien said...

I wouldn't dare try to pick between Bosingwa and Ivanovic right now, seems like either one could start on any given gameweek. I picked up A. Cole when he was at least .6 cheaper, and though he's certainly pricey, I'm keeping him until further notice.

Steven said...

Malouda definitely available :)

http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2010/11/05/the-weekend-team-news-malouda-available-for-anfield/

I'm curious about Odemwingie.

Chris Glover said...

News from Old Trafford is that Nani is OUT. I think it might be wildcard time for me.

Carroll=Shearer said...

Malouda IN. Lampard, Bosingwa, and Nani OUT.

Also, Chris, how do you feel about Bent as captain? I think Sunderland is pissed about getting demolished by their rivals last week (fantastic!) and will seek to make amends to their hometown fans. And Stoke has been awful on the road.

Chris Glover said...

Carroll - I had Bent on this list then I changed my mind as I decided he was just too damn inconsistent. He's scored his goals against City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Birmingham and Newcastle, all of whom have decent defenses. It seems he relies little on the opponent and so he's the type of player you need to play every week regardless of matchup if you wish to benefit from his season tally.

That said, Stoke at home is a nice fixture and the stats suggest Sunderland will score 1 or 2 goals this week. He is therefore a reasonable option but I am scared of being too cute with my armband having been burned by Drogba on a couple of occasions this season already.

Craig B said...

Love what you are doing with all the updates to the site. Something on my wishlist has been an update to the goal keeper pairings article with this season's data and a view at the next ten weeks or so. If you could get your data to crunch pairings for 6 and 12 weeks I think that would be a phenomenal tool. Keep up the great work! P.S. It might also help give us insight into cheap backlines w/ minimal need for movement.

Ryan said...

Chris,

Do you have any stats to prove that Nasri does not do as well fantasy-wise (includes getting benched) when Fabregas plays regularly? I'm trying for the zillionth time to justify not buying Nasri. In the past he's always been disappointing whenever I bought him.

Totally agree with Craig about GK pairings and bargain defenders. It would be a great addition to your already awesome blog!

Sunny said...

hey chris....we both have oshea on our teams....but he isnt doing much...and is being challenged by brown and rafael at RB....time to sell him???...give me your thoughts

Oshada said...

Hi Chris, do you think it's worth taking a point hit to do Nani > Nolan and Chamakh > Torres?