PLFantasy

Learn About Tableau

A couple of weeks back, we looked at the correlation between shots on goal and goals scored and (unsurprisingly) found a pretty strong link between the two. This ground breaking research probably won't make it into the next Freakonomics book but it might help illustrate players who are getting good looks at goal but not converting their chances. I went on to mess up my explanation of regression to the mean (h/t to mustardking for correcting me) but in essence, while players who have yet to capitalise on a number of shots on target, don't suddenly find themselves 'due' a goal, if a player continues to get in good positions and take good shots, over a period of time we would expect them to score at their historical rate going forward (normally around a goal every three shots on target for elite players). Building on the shots analysis, we can now move onto to trying to predict assists. This is inherently trickier as the inputs we need to use will almost certainly invo...

In the recent Everton preview , I noted that I would stay away from Leighton Baines given the need for him to produce historic numbers to justify the lofty price tag. This statement was somewhat abstract and so I thought I should expand on a theory which I have long followed in fantasy football: don't pay for offensive defenders. As with all overarching theories, the wording is too blunt and should really read, don't pay too much extra for last year's offensive defenders; but that isn't as catchy. Before we get too bogged down with words, let's get back on solid ground with some stats. Goals The below players have all had at least one season scoring 3 or more goals: Player 08/09 09/10 10/11 Cahill 3 5 3 Samba 2 4 4 Vidic 4 1 5 Huth 0 3 6 Johnson G 3 3 2 Lescott 4 1 3 Baines 1 1 5 Hangeland 0 1 6 Nelsen 0 4 3 Ridge...