Model Review: A Comparison
After posting a review of the latest model , reader Agnar had the excellent suggestion of not just comparing the model to actual results, but benchmarking it against another simpler forecast system, likely employed by large sections of fantasy managers. As suggested, a simple and useful method here is to simply take the points per game (actually points per 90 minutes to avoid the odd sub appearance skewing things) accumulated in gameweeks 1-7 and then comparing that rate to the actual rate delivered in gameweeks 8-17. We can then plot that side by side with the model analysis and see (a) which is better, and (b) if there are any specific areas in which the model succeeds/fails. The first graph shows the P90 for gameweeks 1-7 plotted against the P90 for gameweeks 8-17 (filtered to only include players who racked up 600+ minutes). The second graph shows the forecast points for gameweeks 8-17 from the model plotted against the actual P90 for gameweeks 8-17 (again, limited t...