Thinking Outside the Box
“ It never occurred to them that, if everyone had to think outside the box, maybe it was the box that needed fixing ” [ Gladwell, What the Dog Saw ] When picking a fantasy team, like when trying to win anything, most participants will search for an ‘edge’ or secret formula to give them a jump-start over their opponents. This may take the form of relying on industry knowledge (“a friend of mine is a scout at Spurs and he assures me Assou Ekotto will retain his starting LB position from last season”), trend analysis (“Rooney scores 69% of his goals against bottom half teams”) or historical performance (“high price midfielders always out deliver their expensive forward counterparts”). This quest for more information works on the assumption that the common ‘knowledge’ is at best limited and at worst incorrect. How true is this though? In NFL fantasy we are told to draft running backs in the first round, in baseball anyone who can deliver speed and power is a sure fire ...