PLFantasy

Updated goalkeeper rotation numbers after four gameweeks. Data is based on current and prior year data, weighted towards the 2012/12 data. The below number shows the average goals per game conceded of the best fixture for each combination of players. For example, the average forecast goals conceded if you own Foster and Jaaskelainen would be 1.27:

One of the first ideas I wrote about on the blog was the idea of utilizing two budget 'keepers to deliver the same value as one elite player. As a quick reminder, the basic premise of the strategy is that: A player's opponent has a strong influence on his weekly success and thus if you select players whose fixtures 'gel' well together, you can maximise the number of games played against weaker opponents. If you select an elite keeper, you still need to spend at least 4.0m on your second keeper who will likely never see the light of day. Hence, to enjoy the right to play Joe Hart every week will cost you at least 11.0m where as playing a pair of average players in the best circumstances will set you back 10.0m or even less. It's tricky to predict how teams will perform this year using only prior year statistics, but by and large we can get a decent idea of what to expect as teams rarely change dramatically on a yearly basis. The calculation for the promoted t...

[edit: thanks to Ben for pointing out that I forgot to include Foster's loan move to West Brom below. Replace all Myhill references will Foster but be mindful of his higher price] I've been talking about the GK combo strategy for a number of years now, though the basic premise is worth repeating. There are two main issues which give to my support for this strategy:  If you go for a 'big name' keeper you effectively burn 4.0m as you are highly unlikely to ever play the lesser player. Only in a perfect storm where Petr Cech travels to the Emirates while John Ruddy welcomes Swansea will you bench the 7.0m man. The correlation between cost and points for 'keepers (right) has never been particularly strong with low budget options showing up every year (Al Habsi, Foster) to rank close to, if not above, their expensive counterparts (van der Sar). With a combo strategy you play the best fixture each week, on the basis that if you stick to the logical projectio...