PLFantasy

Quick note: One of the reasons I restarted the blog this year was that my wife and I were expecting twins in late September so I knew I would be home a lot more with plenty of sleepless hours available to mindlessly consume football matches. Well, the twins didn't think this was a great idea and decided to convert xTwins into Twins on August 13th. This means I've been a bit delayed rolling out some of the models and ideas I had to kick off the season but once we get into a routine I will ramp up the content a bit. I like to think that they are already concerned about the potential issues around small sample sizes and wanted to force me to wait until the season was a few weeks old before overreacting. Selecting defenders and 'keepers requires a different strategy to your attacking options, given that so much of their value is locked up in their team's performance. Of course, playing on a good team will help any player but while it's possible to have a lot of succes...

I've posted at length before about the GK rotation strategy , with the basic idea being that good keepers with great fixtures tend to perform better (and score more points) than great keepers with average fixtures. To maximise the strategy you need two teams' fixtures to 'gel', that is, maximise the number of home fixtures and weak opponents and minimise the number of times both teams face a tough opponent. Though I have always focused this strategy on keepers, there is no reason it cannot be used for defenders, and I'm sure many of you do it already. The availability this year of players from good mid-range teams for a budget price suggests that this strategy might be even more fruitful this year. With that in mind, I have expanded the GK-ranking combinations to include all teams which contain a regular starter available for 5.0m or less (thus excluding 6 teams - Man City, Man Utd, Arsenal, Liverpool, Everton and Chelsea). I know Liverpool do have a 5.0m starter i...

In the recent Everton preview , I noted that I would stay away from Leighton Baines given the need for him to produce historic numbers to justify the lofty price tag. This statement was somewhat abstract and so I thought I should expand on a theory which I have long followed in fantasy football: don't pay for offensive defenders. As with all overarching theories, the wording is too blunt and should really read, don't pay too much extra for last year's offensive defenders; but that isn't as catchy. Before we get too bogged down with words, let's get back on solid ground with some stats. Goals The below players have all had at least one season scoring 3 or more goals: Player 08/09 09/10 10/11 Cahill 3 5 3 Samba 2 4 4 Vidic 4 1 5 Huth 0 3 6 Johnson G 3 3 2 Lescott 4 1 3 Baines 1 1 5 Hangeland 0 1 6 Nelsen 0 4 3 Ridge...

Having done earlier posts on forwards and midfielders , it's time to sneak in the defenders before the season starts. As indicated in an earlier piece on value against points earned , you can often find good value in cheaper defenders, along with those consistent performers who aren't flashy or exciting but do the business each year and give you consistent returns each week. Here are my favorite players 'under the radar' along with a couple of players just off the radar who need a bit of help before they become good pickups. Under the radar Fabio Aurelio (6.0m) Given that Liverpool were willing to let Insua leave, it seems likely that he isn't going to be first choice at Anfield this season. There is a chance that Hodgson will bring in someone else (such as Konchesky who would become a steal at 5m) but until then Aurelio looks like he will be first choice at LB. Hodgson made Fulham into one of the best defensive units around and similar success at Liverpool, w...

Without wishing to tread on the toes on the first weekly preview post for the season, I thought it might be useful to quickly run through the strength of schedules for the new season, as these should factor into - but not wholly drive - your initial squad. Readers from last season will know how much I love looking at a team's fixtures, and I will often state how I prefer a good fantasy player (say, Clint Dempsey) with a great fixture over a great fantasy player (say, James Milner) with a so-so fixture. This holds true to an extent though two important caveats should be noted here: Don't get too cute - I would never drop Lampard on a weekly basis for someone like Steve Pienaar as there are sound reasons why Lampard costs twice as much: he plays for a top team, takes penalties and dominates the bonus category. You may look at Lampard's fixtures and decide that over a 6 game period his production might be limited and therefore look to sell him, but dropping a ...

After the Villa double gameweek and a few injuries and suspensions I assume many of you will be looking to make changes this week. The natural choice would be to gravitate to towards Fulham and Everton defenders due to their double gameweeks but a few other teams also look appealing. Over the next eight gameweeks, the average GPG scored by opponents at home/away in brackets, the average goals each team have conceded per game this season and their calculated strength of schedule are as below: The top two aren't exactly big surprises historically though United have been far from reliable this season and it's encouraging to see them on this list. Blog reader Andrew pointed out how good United's fixtures are in the coming weeks and the above stats back it up, with United getting the fourth best opposition GPG. Their only red light game (1.7 GPG+) for United is the trip to Upton Park to play West Ham (1.8 GPG) while the visit of Villa (1.33 GPG) also looks like it could be trick...

One of my favourite ways to select defenders is to select a player from a team who is valued at a lower value than his teammates (like Armand Traore last year who at 4.5m was considerably cheaper than his Portsmouth teammates). A lot of fantasy players tend to select a particular player based on reputation even though you are really picking a defensive team, save for a extra goals and bonus points that accompany some players. Putting these aside for now, lets look around the league for the potential cheap links this year: NB. Goalkeepers do not count here as they are all generally cheaper than the defensive counterparts: Man United - Rafael (5.5)/O'Shea (5.5)/Brown (6m)/Neville (5.5m) If any of these players can lock down the position then they instantly become almost a must own player as they will be playing alongside the best defence in the league, who are valued at 8m, 7m and 6.5m but will only cost you the same as a Villa or West Ham defender. If Rafael can become an every wee...