PLFantasy

The below visualization shows the share of their team's shots inside the box (SiB) and created chances (CC) each player have accounted for this season. The share represents only the games when the player was on the field so as to not penalise them for missing games. This also therefore means that the total team percentage will not add up to 100%. While shots inside the box are generally more valuable than those from outside, this data does not control for quality beyond that, so an overly trigger happy player like Andy Carroll might appear more valuable than he is, while a clinical finisher like Aguero might be underrated. Still, the idea here is provide a quick sense check as to where players rank within their respective teams. We often see people cite team A's superior fixtures to team B as the key reason to select player A over player B, but this misses the impact of the likelihood of these players benefiting from their team's favourable fixtures, which I hope this p...

It wasn't really my intention to roll out pieces of the model in various stages but I've been a bit slower than I hoped in finalising this year's version so wanted to at least present the different pieces as they're available. We first looked at the team +/- which gives an indication of how a team might perform in future weeks beyond a simply shots/game type metric which fails to adjust for strength of schedule. Next up is to look at the players' share of their team totals, which will help turn the forecast team data into something we can use for individuals. This isn't a complex calculation, but a couple of points are worth noting: The calculation excludes any games the player misses and only uses team data from games they appear in. It isn't, therefore, the same as simply looking at player's shots to date for the season divided by his team's total.  I do not make an adjustment for minutes played, so players who make a lot of substitute appeara...