PLFantasy

As we enter another drab international week, it presents a well-overdue chance to dig a little deeper into this year's model and look at some of the results which don't necessarily align with what the majority of people appear to be thinking. I don't want to get too bogged down in the merits of any particular assumption in the model, though obviously as we look back and see where the model missed reality, tweaks can and are made. I do however want to illustrate how individual forecast numbers are made up and why that leads to the situation, for example, where Alexis Sanchez has so-so forecast numbers despite leading all midfielders in points to date (by a distance). Regressing conversion rates The first and most obvious point to note is that Sanchez has a particularly high goals per shot on target ratio (50%) which based on history is unlikely to be sustained. The model uses a regressed conversion rate based on a combination of a player's history (where applicable)...

This was an enjoyable game to watch for the neutral spectator, with two teams that were fairly evenly matched on the day and a couple of quality moments which defined the game. If we're being honest, the game was generally close because of Everton's inability to really push on and dominate against the supposed "lesser" team, but credit must be given for Burnley's industry and the way Dyche had his team setup which countered much of what Everton wanted to do. The game stats show Everton dominating in overall possession (64%) though less so in the amount of time spent in the opponents' half (56%) which highlights the fact that Everton were cautious for long stretches of this game; something that was always likely to be true with Barry, McCarthy and Osman all used in the middle of the field. Though perhaps harsh to criticise a team who scored three away from home, without Mirallas, Barkley and Pienaar I believe this team lacks a bit of creativity and at times t...

Learn About Tableau Given their tough fixture list to date - Everton have already faced Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man Utd - and having not seen too many of their games myself, I figured a deeper look at the stats would reveal a team who had either been particularly unlucky with their results or were simply victim to those tough teams. To a degree that's true, as they picked up just two points from the three games in which the data falls into the top right quadrant yet their defense has been below average in the other five contests as they've struggled along with just a couple of clean sheets. This week's 3-0 win over Villa will have many assuming the team have turned the corner but those three goals came on just eight SiB (six SoT) suggesting there is still some way to go until we see this attacking unit hit the heights of last season. It's not surprising to see that Everton have tended to favour the left side of the pitch when going forward with 49% of their cre...

In this weekly series, each player has been assigned a 'Buy', "Hold' or 'Sell' status. These don't necessarily reflect what I would do, more what I believe to be reasonable action at this time: Buy - the player can be purchased immediately taking consideration of his playing time, fixtures, injury status etc. This status does not necessarily mean you should buy him now as it depends who else you own, only that it is reasonable to do so Hold, and monitor - if you own the player you're not in a rush to ditch him but there's sufficient risk here to justify potential buyers holding off. Sell - the player has too many risks and should either be sold or not purchased. This does not mean he might not have value in the future, just not right now. Ashley Cole 15 points Cole took his goal very well this week but it was probably another factor which boosted his value more: John Terry being benched. With that, along with the ominous presence of A...

Looking back at last season 9 clean sheets for the year made the team a mid level defense but their higher cost delivered fairly poor value Managed 3 clean sheets over the final 7 gameweeks  Consistent GPG conceded at home (1.21) and away (1.16) though clean sheet split was more pronounced (6-3) Ranked 8th in home GPG (1.63) and 11th on the road (1.05). Again the number of times failing to score shows a clear distinction (2-7). Defensive unit ranked 5th in P90 including a top ranking in bonus points thanks to stellar totals from Baines (20), Distin (16) and Jagielka (10). Due to their comparatively high cost though, they delivered a P$ ranking of just 11th. The midfield really contributed little all year, ranking 11th in P90 and 19th in P$ . Full, healthy seasons from Cahill and Arteta should help improve these totals. The front line also gave a lackluster performance with 198 points only just eclipsing Tevez's individual total. To be fair, this is pa...

In prior years, many fantasy players' defensive strategy has been to pick 4 players from the big four and watch the points role in, with very little need for tinkering. Three factors have conspired to reduce the effectiveness of this strategy: - the big four's defenses have not been excellent this year with Liverpool and to a lesser extent Arsenal looking vulnerable at the back - injuries and rotation have lessened the number of every week starters who are guaranteed to suit up for their respective sides. Arsenal look settled with Clichy, Gallas, Vermaelen and Sagna but each of the other big four sides have seen some form of rotation due to injury of to rest players. - several middle tier sides have emerged with improved defenses, most notably City, who are yet to concede this season and Stoke, whose home form is again stellar. Defensive points are the consistent lifeblood of any fantasy team as no striker can match the consistency of a 8 game clean sheet run, or the 25 total ...