Forecasting player performance: goals
WARNING : This post is going to skew long and won't contain any directly relevant fantasy advice to help you make your transfers this week. It might get a bit nerdy at times, though I'm far from classically trained in statistics so the concepts, if not always the terminology, should be accessible to all. I also won't reach any definitive conclusion as these models are a work in progress. Any input on anything not considered below or anywhere where you disagree with any conclusions can be posted in the comments or over at Shots on Target where you'll find a handy forum to discuss these issues. We're also only looking at forecasting goals here, assists will need a separate post. Tracking historic success The way I look at it, there are three distinct ways to track historic success: Historic classic stats (goals, assists etc) Historic fantasy points (similar to classic stats but accounting for all fantasy relevant events) Historic underlying stats (a much de...