PLFantasy

Even though we're still just seven weeks into the new season, we've already observed a number of interesting and somewhat strange happenings at the Emirates: in terms of underlying data, the defense has been more impressive than the usually explosive attack in terms of actual results though, the defense has struggled with just a single clean sheet to date Wenger did bring in a relatively big name forward - who's looked great so far - yet there still seems to be a feeling that they need more - probably in part due to the success of Diego Costa on the other side of London the team has quietly assembled the best depth they've enjoyed in recent memory yet they've suffered through so many injuries that the average bench has tended to be more Campbell and Coquelin than Giroud and Cazorla Arsenal out shot Chelsea 10 to five and enjoyed more possesion at Stamford Bridge last time out, yet lost the game (their first of the season) and now find themselves nine points beh...

As we all know, the fantasy season does not comprise 38 independent events. Medium and even long term plans need to be put in place based on the next 'x' number of games and over-reliance on the now can handcuff your team in the future. Though all teams are constructed differently and thus will encounter these periods at different times, there are also overarching factors which impact all (or at least most) teams in the same way. Sometimes these are obvious, such as the opening of the second-wildcard transfer window or the real-life transfer window which potential opens the door to new options for our teams. On other occasions, however, the trends are tougher to spot, especially when we're in the eye of them (they are much  easier to see with hindsight). We are potentially at a changing point for one of these period-changes. Like any mostly free market, the demand for players will settle into something of an equilibrium, and for most managers the leading role in de...

As a quick introduction for those new to the blog, this piece runs every couple of weeks during the season and looks to shine a light on those "hot" players whose "form" looks unsustainable and those "cold" players who should enjoy success in the future if they keep playing the way they have to date. The below chart shows this week's subjects, with those on the left having outscored their underlying data and those on the right having outperformed their score. Before we start, as is becoming a tendency on this blog, I need to add a quick caveat as to exactly what we're saying here. First, we are not  saying that a player will somehow "get back" or "give back" their production to date or that bad luck will necessarily follow good luck. We are saying that players' (and teams') conversion rates should regress to the mean , seeing them earn points at a rate more in line with their underlying stats (which could be a good ...

This will just be a quick post, to address a very good point raised by reader chemikills regarding the inclusion of Arteta in the recent 'long list' of underowned players (chemikills makes some other good suggestions of underowned players in the comments section, which are well worth taking a look at). Anyway, I have a confession to make. The comment that Arteta will benefit from the opportunities afforded to Fabregas was a bit cheap and probably not really based in reality. Fabregas is one of the best players to play in the Premier League, and no matter who replaces him, to suggest they can enjoy the same heights was hyperbole. Anyway, the question did raise an interesting side point: who will benefit most from Arsenal's revival? Arteta or Ramsey? I had been fairly high on Ramsey a few weeks back, but I must admit, he has somewhat slipped from my mind in recent weeks. Looking at the chalkboards from the last 3 weeks, I think it's hard to conclude that Ramsey...