Friday, October 29, 2010

Gameweek 10 Preview

I'm putting all the design nonsense to one side to get down to some actual fantasy writing. As I'm sure most of you are chomping at the bit to get into your transfers/lineups so I will get straight down to business.

Clean Sheet Rankings
  1. Aston Villa (0.43)
  2. Arsenal (0.49)
  3. Chelsea (0.56)
  4. Man City (0.69)
  5. Everton (0.72)
  6. Bolton (0.72)
  7. Newcastle (0.72)
  8. Fulham (0.77)
  9. Man Utd (0.82)
  10. Blackburn (1.26)
  11. Wolves (1.26)
  12. Wigan (1.60)
  13. Blackpool (1.72)
  14. Liverpool (1.74)
  15. Stoke (1.93)
  16. Sunderland (1.95)
  17. Birmingham (2.05)
  18. Tottenham (2.44)
  19. West Brom (2.79)
  20. West Ham (4.53)
Captain Rankings
  1. Cesc Fabregas: Arsenal are the top rated team for the week with an expected 4.5 goals. Arsenal have scored 10 league goals with Fabregas on the pitch this season and he has scored or assisted three of them. This would suggest he should notch points this week and I wouldn't bet against him getting one of each, even after his penalty miss last week.
  2. Dimitar Berbatov: 38 points in 4 home games including 5 goals and 8 bonus points. His worst home total is 7 points. That's all I need to hear.
  3. Nani: Almost as good as Berbatov at home: 33 points in 4 games.
  4. Didier Drogba: Not a stellar matchup and he looked a bit slow last week but I can't drop him any lower than this. Played against Blackburn three times last season (twice at Ewood) and notched a goal in each game.
  5. Samir Nasri: I'm a believer. Of the 9 goals the Gunners have netted with Nasri on the pitch, he has scored or assisted 5 of them: better than Fabregas. Why is he below him? You know my unfaltering love for Cesc.
  6. Marouane Chamakh: Yeh I like Arsenal this week. All Chamakh's league goals have come at home and despite the threat of a returning Bendtner, I like him to start this one and provide a huge threat to West Ham's shaky back line (which could be without Upson too). 
  7. Florent Malouda: As with Drogba you daren't drop him too low but I don't love the fixture so I'm holding back a bit on Chelsea this week.
One week tips
These are players who I don't rank as captain options but are good sleeper picks if you need to bring someone in for a weekly play:
  • Javier Hernandez: I'm not as high on him as some but he's in hot form and appears to be a cool finisher.
  • Charlie Adam: Great fixture on paper which should see Blackpool get a couple of goals. Adam is involved directly or indirectly in most good things the Seasiders do so I'd expect bonus points with a decent chance of a goal here.
  • Kevin Davies: With Carragher pushed out to the right, the likes of Kyrgiakos and Skrtel will have to try and deal with Davies and Elmander and I'm not convinced they can. Elmander has scored more so far this year but Davies got a goal and an assist in this fixture last season and I like him here to heap more misery on poor Roy Hodgson.
I will on and off here all weekend trying to improve the usability of the site so any requests or comments are welcomed while I ring the changes. Of course, fantasy questions are also welcomed so please post away below or @plfantasy.

Please cast an eye over the proposed schedule analysis tables and let me know which one people prefer.

8 comments:

Shedboy said...

I'm thinking of selling Lee.
You said Nasri is the best option and he is in the captain contenders.
But i think with Fabregas back, Nasri's involvement will be limited. And what about Walcott? He is back and scored a brace against Newcastle in midweek. Is he a regular starter in his side?

bjørn said...

Is there any point in selling tevez when i bought him early on for 10.4?

Simon said...

Can you remind me/us how your defensive ranking scores are generated? I take it the lower the number the better, so the teams at the top of the list have more chance of keeping a clean sheet?

Mmmarek83 said...

is there point to sell tevez for adebayor? any recommendations?

other forwards are drogba and obinna.

held5034 said...

I have Drogba, Nani, and Berb in my lineup, but I am thinking of captaining A. Cole. Am I crazy?

Chris Glover said...

Shed - I think nasri's value takes a small hit with the return of fabregas (including the loss of pen duties) but he still has v good value. Arsenal's fixtures are great and with the team getting fit I think they're due for a run.

I love Lee but he simply isn't delivering fantasy points right now. I would consider moving him. As for Walcott, his PPG are very strong but I can never be sure I he'll play ech week. I need proof of that before I committ.

Bjorn - I wouldn't sell tevez due to injury as it seems he'll miss just one game. However I like Berbatov more anyway based on his home form, fixtures, fitness and lack of rotation threat. If you liked tevez before though I'd ignore the injury.

Simon - sorry I didn't add an explanation. The number represents the expected number of goals conceded based on historic stats. So a lower score and higher rank is preferable.

Mmmarek - I rate Ade but I think he won't get enough minutes to give you value especially as Balotelli gets fit.

Held - Cole is always in contention I just dont love backing defenders on the road as the system tends to be more defensive so you're only chance of points is a clean sheet. Chelsea aren't as good in that category either away hence he fell down the rankings. That said, he's on a great run so I wouldn't have an issue with anyone handing him the armband.

Colin said...

Chris,

I'm just beginning to start wondering about Torres. I think there are some signs that he might be stirring into life. Do you think that he is close to becoming a viable Fantasy option again. I like Berbatov, but I'm thinking that with a bit of defensive rejigging along the lines of what you might be about to attempt with budget defenders, that I could have a potential line-up in a few weeks time containing Fabregas, Drogba and Torres! If Torres starts to play again as we all know how he can, then that is a hell of a lot of firepower! Obviously it relies on him fully recovering form to have any chance of working, but I was just wondering what your honest feelings were about him...

Chris Glover said...

I hope Torres gets back to fitness and form and I back him to at some point as he is just to good. I have been known to call him the best forward in the league a year or so ago before his and Drogba's career started to go in different directions.

Drogba developed this affable passionate attitude while Torres has been pretty sulky over the past year and endured a below par World Cup despite his team winning it all.

After next week Liverpool only have one game against one of the big 6 sides until GW26 so things could be alligning for them. However, until I see Hodgson take the reins off I do not trust this unit to go out and score 2 or 3 goals on a given week.

Torres v Berbatov and Tevez is closer but he costs so much more that the real argument is v Drogba. For me is not there yet (although Drogba has been extremely quiet in this game again so maybe I will change on this soon).