PLFantasy

Over half the teams have now played and to be honest - with the exception of the impressive Germans - I am pretty underwhelmed. Too many team have been overly cautious and are scared of losing rather than trying to win. As a keen amateur economist I must once again point to risk aversion - the fear of losing something weighs greater on the mind than the joy in gaining. So, the fear of losing a point prevents teams risking it all to win three (a two point gain). How true then is the notion that you simply can't lose your first game? Let's look at the data from the last 3 World Cups to see the trends: 2006 - of the 16 teams that qualified there were 11 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in the first game 2002 - of the 16 teams that qualified there were 9 wins, 6 draws and 1 losses in the first game 1998 - of the 16 teams that qualified there were 11 wins, 5 draws and 0 losses in the first game The above data shows that if you lose your first game, the chance of making the last 16 based...

I am assuming here that most of us are playing the official FIFA fantasy game and so I will focus all strategy ideas and player picks on that game. Before we start, here's a quick run down of the key rules regarding lineups and transfers: Transfers Once the tournament kicks off, its only 1 transfer before round 2 and 1 before round 3 (without incurring a 3 point penalty) and so your squad really needs to carry you through the group stages (save for an injury or an unexpected benching). After the group stages you can reload your entire team so there isn't an absolute need for your squad to be made up players challenging for the trophy. However, with the price rises, it will pay somewhat to get on board a player early who you think might make an unexpected run to the last 8 and beyond. Substitutions At the start of each day, you can replace any player in your starting eleven with a player from the bench who is yet to play (provided he wasn't sent off). You do not have to re...

The official game price list is out and it makes for some interesting reading. Before delving too much into strategy I thought I'd throw out a few names of players who jump off the page as being potential bargains or players I like better than those for the same value: Casillas 8m lloris 6.5m Stekelenburg 6.5m Cole 7.5m Chiellini 7m Evra 7m Van der Wiel 6.5m Albiol 6m Subotic 4m Kaka 10m Xavi 9.5m Di Maria 8m Lennon 7m Fernandez 6.5m Gourcuff 6.5m Hamsik 6m Dempsey 5.5m Messi 10m Villa 10m Van Persie 8m Suarez 7m Sanchez 6m Frei 5.5m Keepers are valuable in the game given their extra two points for clean sheets and so I think it's worth paying extra for a premium guy. Strikers probably have slightly more value that midfielders as all players score 5 points for a goal regardless of position. However, I think that the position falls off quickly and so I will load up on two or even three top guys and go for the mid range midfield option (not unlike my favourite EPL tactic for th...

There aren't many things I like better than prospect lists and I'm a huge sucker for 'the next big thing', spending countless hours watching high school football prospects, soccer phenoms from Brazil and college baseball. When I can combine some crystal ball gazing with the World Cup, well, it just doesn't get any better. Here then is my list of prospects to look our for this World Cup. The only rule is that you can't have been in your country's squad in the World Cup before, so a couple of these guys are household names while a couple will hopefully give you someone new to look for (depending on how much you play Football Manager or scour the internet and YouTube) GK Hugo Lloris Lloris has been on the world scene for several years, often tipped as the long term replacement for Edwin van der Sar or the answer to Arsene Wenger's goalkeeper woes. It's incredible to think that Fabian Barthez (yeh, remember him?!) was Les Bleus number one in ...

Get your bets in now guys, Doc Brown has fired up the old Delorian and left us a treat on the Sky Sports website. The highly anticipated England-US game is going to finish 2-2. For reference, Bet365 are quoting 22-1 (+2200) on that result.

We're getting closer to the final squads being announced but before then let's look at the fixtures for the group games and determine which ones to target. Reader David has already highlighted a few in a recent post so I thought I'd add my picks based on form, odds, goal scoring record and propensity to keep clean sheets. My top picks for each round of group games are below: Round 1 Slovakia vs New Zealand Brazil vs North Korea Spain vs Switzerland Argentina vs Nigeria For three of the games here (Brazil, Spain and Argentina), the key here is not to indicate that the likes of Messi, Villa and Kaka are good picks (no kidding!) but that you might want to double up rather than have, say a Brazilian and a Dutch strikeforce (with the Netherlands facing a much tougher opener against the Danes). For the record I think the key in week 1 is get to get 11 men on the field so going with captains and irreplaceable players rather than long shots is the key. While I always sing the prais...

Here's a quick run around the World Cup teams including goals, injuries and who will miss the final squad cuts: Van Persie scored twice for the Netherlands in their defeat of Mexico. I am really high on the Netherlands and Van Persie becomes a legitimate option to start from week one (vs Denmark). Michael Essien will miss the World Cup which is a huge blow to Ghana's chance. I like Serbia to progress from Group D after which they will likely meet a relatively strong England side. Philip Lahm has been handed the German armband guaranteeing his place in the starting XI and making him one of the most valuable defenders around. Like fellow ex-teammate Essien, Lassana Diarra will also miss the tournament . The injury should pave the way for PL Fantasy favourite Abou Diaby to play alongside Jeremy Toulanan, as they did on several occasions in the qualifiers. Okay it was against Canada but Argentina finally put on a display that matches their talent levels. Goals for Tevez, Aguero...

Here in the UK, Spain's chances are considered to be greatly hampered by the injuries to Torres and Fabregas, but in reality they still have an extremely strong team and should feature heavily in most fantasy conversations. Fabregas was, and is, likely to take the number 12 shirt ie being a very gifted substitute. Not much has changed since Euro 2008 when Cesc only started in the third group game (after Spain had already qualified) and then the final. He has played in more qualifiers lately but Xavi, Iniesta, Silva and company is far from a bad bunch so I am not sweating Cesc's absence despite my full blown man crush. Torres however is a different story as the Liverpool hitman started every game of the Euro champs (aside from the meaningless 3rd group game) and has featured in most games during the qualifying period. In the 23 man squad, there is only real Fernando Llorente who would be identifiable as a 'striker' to partner Villa with the other forwards being more supp...

Thanks to David among other readers for pointing out that the McDonald's fantasy game is now up and running, and is far superior to the Sky game. I'm still going to play the Sky Sports game as, well, can you ever have too many fantasy teams, but I will be focusing the site on the McDonald's game due to it's similarity to the EPL game we are all familiar with. I have setup a blog league with the code: 128022-30277 Stay tuned for more team previews and some strategy thoughts in the coming days.

Brazil are the second favourites (5/1) for the whole tournament thanks to good form in the qualifiers (top of their group) and an improved 'team' concept that should lead to a tighter defence (emphasis on the word 'should' rather than 'has'). Brazil have been drawn in Group G along with Portugal, Cote d'Ivoire and North Korea which is tough but should not prevent their advance to the next round. A week 1 fixture against North Korea is beyond appetising and with 15 transfers to use in the group stages it makes alot of sense to bring a couple of Brazilians in for this week and move them later if they aren't hitting the highs of previous years. Fantasy Picks The team has been fairly unsettled during the qualifiers so it is hard to pick the final XI but there are several players who should feature in early games and therefore deserve fantasy consideration. Kaka (MD) Undoubtedly one of the top picks for this year's competition, Kaka is the only true world...

A couple of readers have asked whether I will be running a World Cup fantasy competition and I'm pleased to say that the answer is yes. I have setup a mini league over at Sky Sports , though I am open to suggestions if people find a game that they think is better. The pin code in 902 if you want to join in the fun. I will get to focusing on the strategy involved with the game later, especially given the strange format of having 15 transfers (yes 15!) to use over the group stages, but for the time being lets look back at how all the teams have got here. I have taken the teams that all the qualifying nations played in qualification to look at the number of goals they scored and conceded. I have then tried to adjust the results based on the opponents world rankings to try and equalise the results. While this is a pretty crude measure it should give a better idea of where teams' strength lies rather than just "Germany always have a tight defense" (somew...