PLFantasy

Right off the bat, let's all dispose of our shock that this game didn't finish 4-3. Okay, those games happened almost 20 years but I really felt that Stan Collymore and Tino Asprilla would have a big impact on this game. In reality this game was along way from a classic, with two sides lacking something , quite what that is is hard to say. The optimist will say confidence while others will argue quality. I might argue Suarez and Cabaye. Liverpool The gap between Liverpool's dominance in possession (65%) and shot production (two SiB) is about as stark as I recall seeing and probably performs a reasonable summary for Liverpool's woes. I'm not going to make this 500 words on Balotelli's ineptitude as, simply, he just isn't a bad player. He is however not playing particularly well on a zero to Suarez scale and the system he's being used in does not seem to be working well for either party right now. The Italian seems to want to drop off the front, much l...

I've noted a couple of times this week that I'm personally looking to make changes to my side given budgetary constraints and I assume at least some of you are in the same (or similar) position. I'd suggest the most common solution is to go with a "stars and scrubs" strategy, holding the star players like Suarez and Aguero (when healthy) while trying to fill your squad with a smattering of low priced picks who you believe you can squeeze enough value from to give you the edge. Generally, this strategy can work quite well as (a) you're better off with two players who score 8 points and 4 points than two who score 6 due to the ability to captain the star player, and (b) the game tends to leave a number of players undervalued due to a sudden increase in playing time or player improvement. However, at this stage in the season, I am concerned about the lack of budget options. The best budget options have been bid up to mid level prices and thus if you want to ho...

As we all know, the fantasy season does not comprise 38 independent events. Medium and even long term plans need to be put in place based on the next 'x' number of games and over-reliance on the now can handcuff your team in the future. Though all teams are constructed differently and thus will encounter these periods at different times, there are also overarching factors which impact all (or at least most) teams in the same way. Sometimes these are obvious, such as the opening of the second-wildcard transfer window or the real-life transfer window which potential opens the door to new options for our teams. On other occasions, however, the trends are tougher to spot, especially when we're in the eye of them (they are much  easier to see with hindsight). We are potentially at a changing point for one of these period-changes. Like any mostly free market, the demand for players will settle into something of an equilibrium, and for most managers the leading role in de...

A slight change of pace with this week's fanning the flames piece due to a couple of observations over the last few weeks and months. First, I felt that old graphic didn't really show enough information that might lead us to fan said flame (or, more likely douse those hyped up fires). Second, looking at the data on a single week basis was always going to lead to a large number of 'variances' due to the ridiculously small samples involved. I've therefore currently included three gameweeks of data, but have built the model to allow for anywhere between one and five to be included so this may again be tweaked in the future. Finally, this is a piece which should probably run every two or three weeks to avoid too much repetition, so this new format lends itself more to that time frame. First then, let's look at the new graphic and a couple of lines to illuminate the way the data is intended to be read: Powered by Tableau The G , xG , A , xA , P and xP ...

<a href="#"><img alt="Dashboard 1 " src="http://public.tableausoftware.com/static/images/Ca/Captain_0/Dashboard1/1_rss.png" style="border: none" /></a> Powered by Tableau P90 Points scored per 90 minutes at home/away based on this week's opponents QG% Percentage of games played where the player scored 6 or more points xPct The percentage of his team's goals a player has accounted for, multiplied by the expected goals for this week Rating Based on the player's rankings in the other three categories. Many will be considering specifically bringing Suarez in for this week and his double gameweek deserves a bit of attention here. His xPct mark of 0.710 is solid and is based on Liverpool being forecast to score just over a couple of goals and Suarez accounting for around of thi...

Two weeks is a long time in both fantasy and reality. If it goes well you could being talked about as title contenders with the world at your feet (Mancini) but if things go wrong, even the strongest of resumes will be ignored (Wenger). Hopefully you find yourself in the former camp, but if not, don't panic, decide who needs to go then start trying to rack up some points, starting with this week. Clean Sheet Rankings It's always tricky at this point in the season to determine how much attention to pay to prior year and how much to focus on the current season. I have avoided the tough decision by simply adding/averaging the data to give hybrid values. The GPG conceded will therefore be over the 19 home/away games from last year plus this year's single game while clean sheets/ failed to score numbers are simply added together: [Defensive Pick vs Opponent - goals per game conceded (clean sheets kept - opponent failed to score)] Liverpool vs Bolton - 0.93 GP (9 - 7) Ast...

The initial reactions to the weekend's game can be found here but here are a few more random thoughts from scanning the chalkboards today. More concrete analysis along with ideas on how to use your free transfers this week will follow as soon as the site updates all their stats. Blackburn v Wolves Hunt took up the most dangerous positions out of the three potential options (O'Hara and Jarvis) and also took most of the set pieces. Jarvis grabbed the assist but on this display I might lean towards Hunt as the man to own here. I still believe O'Hara is the best player but he sat so deep that fantasy points are going to harder for him to come by. Formica's touches were fairly limited which brings into question how he was awarded the 7 EA Sports points. You have to think that goals are going to play a massive part of bonus points, thus suggesting that little will change from last year. Fulham v Aston Villa Strange deployment of Heskey, Agbonlahor and Bent with ...

Looking back at last season Finished 4th in clean sheets (14) despite notching just 2 in the first 9 gameweeks (Chelsea already had 7 at that point). 8 clean sheets over the final 15 games suggest the team may be ready to become an elite defense once again under Dalglish Better defensively at home (0.74 GPG ) but still serviceable on the road (1.58 GPG ) making defenders playable virtually every week. Failed to score just 7 times all season and only twice under Dalglish (the final two games of the season with little to play for). Scored 23 goals in 20 games under Hodgson then 36 in 18 with Dalglish at the helm.  Boasted the 4th best home offense (1.95 GPG ) but were only okay away (1.16 GPG ). Defensive unit ranked 5th in total points and 6th in P$ . Part of this is based on the successful usage of some cheaper youngsters but it's an impressive record nonetheless. The midfield did well in total points with 706 (4th) but this translated into poor value for money with a P$ o...