Thursday, September 30, 2010

Gameweek 7 Preview

Clean Sheet Rankings
 I am hesitant to try and over-engineer these rankings but it has always been my view when I read other fantasy sites that I'd prefer to have as much info as possible and then use my own judgement to decide what is best to rely on. Therefore, given that we are now 6 weeks in, I am going to include the rankings to reflect both the hybrid stats (based on last year's results and this years) as well as the rankings if you purely use this season's data. I have also included below some trends that need factoring into your decisions this week.

Hybrid rankings (based on 2009/10 and 2010/11 seasons)
  1. Birmingham (0.51) +
  2. Tottenham (0.53)
  3. Liverpool (0.56) -
  4. Stoke (0.62)
  5. Man City (0.66) +
  6. West Ham (0.76)
  7. West Brom (0.78)
  8. Chelsea (0.79)
  9. Everton (0.91) +
  10. Wolves (1.11)
  11. Wigan (1.13)
  12. Man United (1.20) +
  13. Sunderland (1.31)
  14. Fulham (1.63) +
  15. Blackburn (1.67) +
  16. Aston Villa (2.00)
  17. Newcastle (2.13)
  18. Bolton (2.16)
  19. Arsenal (3.17)
  20. Blackpool (3.68)
2010/11 rankings only
  1. Birmingham (0.00) +
  2. Chelsea (0.00)
  3. Man City (0.16) +
  4. Everton (0.32) +
  5. Wolves (0.36)
  6. Tottenham (0.48)
  7. Fulham (0.72)
  8. West Brom (0.80)
  9. Liverpool (1.08) -
  10. Blackburn (1.28)
  11. Stoke (1.28)
  12. West Ham (1.44)
  13. Newcastle (1.60)
  14. Sunderland (1.68)
  15. Aston Villa (2.16)
  16. Man United (2.24) +
  17. Wigan (2.34)
  18. Bolton (2.40)
  19. Blackpool (2.40)
  20. Arsenal (2.87)
+ indicates the trends below show favor for the defensive side, - suggests the opposite

Scoring Trends
  • Wigan have conceded 9 goals to forwards this year making Doyle and Fletcher intriguing starts this week.
  • Birmingham have conceded just one goal to a midfielder this year, while Everton's goals (4) have all come from middle men. This suggests that either Birmingham are an even better defensive play, or Everton forwards are due a goal this week (I lean towards the former).
  • Meanwhile Birmingham have been fairly reliant on the set piece goals this year (43%) while Everton have conceded just a single goal to a training ground play. As with the Wigan fixture last week, this one could be a decent 0-0 bet this week.
  • Blackburn have only conceded to midfielders this season while Stoke's midfield are yet to score. This would suggest that the above stats undervalue Blackburn this week but they remain a risky pick.
  • United haven't conceded to an opposition striker this year and Bent is pretty much Sunderland's only offensive weapon. This goes with my gut that United are a better play than they look though Bent showed last week and last season against United that he can score against anyone. That said, if you hold the likes of Vidic you really need to play him every week anyway.
  • West Brom have conceded 5 forward goals this season while Davies and Elmander account for all Bolton's goals this year. If Bolton score, chances are it comes from this pair once again.
  • West Ham are yet to score from open play this year though Fulham have surrendered two set piece goals. Fulham are an okay road bet for the clean sheet in what should be a tight game.
  • Newcastle have played well this year but have been somewhat reliant on their set pieces for goals (44%). City are yet to concede from a set piece so bump them in the rankings accordingly.
  • Liverpool are conceding lots of goals (78%) to forwards which account for 56% of Blackpool's goals. I wouldn't be blown away to see Blackpool sneak a goal at Anfield though Liverpool remain a solid play.
  • Arsenal have already given up 5 goals to forwards but just 1 to midfielders. Hot tip: some guy called Didier Drogba might be a useful play again this week. Which brings me to . . .
Captain Rankings
  1. Didier Drogba
  2. Florent Malouda
  3. Fernando Torres
  4. Carlos Tevez
  5. Steven Gerrard
  6. Nicolas Anelka
  7. Dimitar Berbatov
  8. James Milner
  9. Nani
  10. Rafael Van der Vaat
Some good captain options this week with Chelsea and Liverpool looking like particularly good pools of talent. Considering Arsenal's shaky defense and penchant for letting forwards score, I cannot look beyond Drogba but anyone looking to play Liverpool players against Blackpool will be totally justified. Arsenal have only shipped 3 in 3 on the road but Chelsea have been simply incredible and after last week's defeat, a rested Drogba and co might be looking for blood. Look elsewhere for your armband choice at your peril.

I have snuck Van der Vaat in there mainly to emphasis how well I think he had played since joining Spurs. He has drawn two fantasy blanks in 3 games so I would understand if people call this pick crazy but he has basically been Spurs' best player since he arrived and he is getting better and better. Midweek was a mixed bag as he missed a pen (and likely his duties if Pavlyuchenko is on the field) but he did manage another goal and was widely applauded for his performance until his red card (which actually serves fantasy managers well as it will give him a week off from European action). I think he is a buy target and I am considering moving Bale (who also scored in midweek) to make room. Not sure on that one yet though.

Thanks for reading and please post your comments or questions below or @plfantasy. I also urge you to take a glance at yesterday's post where I discuss my new stat 'schedule adjusted points per million spent (aPPMS). I will also be following in the footsteps of other fantasy sites by picking a team of the week each week, following the standard pl.com rules, though for ease the budget I use will be my own team's bank balance. I will post this before the action starts on Saturday so why not dream up your own team for week 7 and we can compare thoughts.

7 comments:

auburn.tigers2011 said...

Chris or anyone, is transferring Arshavin and Carroll out for Yaya Toure and Tevez worth a 4 point hit? I'm thinking it is but I want to hear some confirmation or reasons why I shouldn't before I make the move.

I'm not worried about rotation risk for Tevez but would Y Toure have risk since he played yesterday?

Thanks guys

auburn.tigers2011 said...

Where is everyone today?

Steven said...

I'm around!! I swapped out Arshavin and Carrol for Odemwingie and Nani. I realize that City has a great matchup schedule, but I needed a mid and I didnt want to grab Milner who seems to be overpriced for the value he provides. That and I want to keep the room in my cap for Cesc when he's healthy again. I wasn't ready to drop Drogba or Berbatov to accommodate Tevez just yet. Then again, I'm 55th in the league :)

Steven said...

To answer your question, I think it's a great move .. Toure has played every match and at his price, he's a great value. Why didn't I do that? Ugh, now I'm second guessing waiting for Fabs.

auburn.tigers2011 said...

Well I guess its just you and me Steven.

Yea I got rid of Milner a couple weeks ago, he just wasnt getting the job done. And I agree that Tevez right now isnt worth dropping Berbatov or Drogba. I went ahead and made the transfers I mentioned earlier so I hope they pay off on Sunday

Chris Glover said...

Sorry for the delay Auburn - Im not a huge fan of the 4 pointer unless you are getting someone on a double GW. Arshavin has a decent record against the bigger sides and Caroll is in good form which means there is a decent chance one of them gets at least some points. Hence, they should get 5 or 6 points minimum. That means you need 10 from the City duo and given Toure's relatively low ceiling you could end up with Tevez scoring and you still losing points.

If you have no captain picks this week and plan to captain Tevez then the deal may work but otherwise Id be nervous. It isnt a bad deal now and again but too many 4 pointers cost you over the season I think.

Over the next 6 weeks Arsenal and Newcastle rank 3rd and 4th in goal potential while City are 6th.

Oshada said...

Hi Chris, do you reckon it'd be worth it to bring in Salcido for Hangeland? And do you think that Nani's run of form has ended?