PLFantasy

Anytime a team - particular one with budget options available - scores 5 goals, there is almost certainly going to be plenty of fantasy reaction. Many of us will be seriously looking at Newcastle players this week and so here are some factors to consider before pulling the trigger: Newcastle have the 4th best attack this year overall and the 3rd best at home. Seven players have scored for the Magpies this year but only three (Nolan, Carroll and Ameobi) have more than one. Midfielders account for 10 of Newcastle's 19 goals so far. Newcastle players have been awarded 38 bonus points to date, joint 3rd highest in the league behind only Chelsea (47) and United (40), and level with Arsenal. Newcastle rank as the 5th best attacking team based on strength of schedule over the next 6 weeks and the next 12 weeks. Kevin Nolan (5.7m) I will always have a soft spot for Nolan due to the role he played during Big Sam's glorious run in charge of the Wanderers (the goal at Arsenal was...

I am going to post a quick statistical dis-proof of all the 'common sense' nonsense the commentators spew on a weekly basis. The first is the oft-quoted rule that Drogba and Anelka can't play together. It is hard (if not impossible) to prove things like how well they interchange passes, link up and create space together but what can be proven is the ultimate result of all that work: goals. Looking at this season only (a small but still useful sample size) we see the following data (including the Champions League and Community Shield): Games played with Drogba and Anelka starting: 8 Goals per game in these games: 2.89 Goals by Drogba and Anelka in these games: 8 (3 for Anelka, 5 for Drogba) Games played with either Drogba or Anelka starting: 7 Goals per game in these games: 2.29 Goals by Drogba and Anelka in these games: 7 (6 for Anelka, 1 for Drogba). Conclusion The pair seem to be able to play well together given that they are averaging over half a goal more...

I'm putting all the design nonsense to one side to get down to some actual fantasy writing. As I'm sure most of you are chomping at the bit to get into your transfers/lineups so I will get straight down to business. Clean Sheet Rankings Aston Villa (0.43) Arsenal (0.49) Chelsea (0.56) Man City (0.69) Everton (0.72) Bolton (0.72) Newcastle (0.72) Fulham (0.77) Man Utd (0.82) Blackburn (1.26) Wolves (1.26) Wigan (1.60) Blackpool (1.72) Liverpool (1.74) Stoke (1.93) Sunderland (1.95) Birmingham (2.05) Tottenham (2.44) West Brom (2.79) West Ham (4.53) Captain Rankings Cesc Fabregas: Arsenal are the top rated team for the week with an expected 4.5 goals. Arsenal have scored 10 league goals with Fabregas on the pitch this season and he has scored or assisted three of them. This would suggest he should notch points this week and I wouldn't bet against him getting one of each, even after his penalty miss last week. Dimitar Berbatov: 38 points in 4 home ga...

Many thanks for all the comments, I will respond to individual questions within the other post. In the meantime please take a glance at the tables below and see which one you like best. I am hoping to move the blog to a more 'website' feel with extra tables of data etc so I'm starting to see what will look good where, and of course, what will be most important. Here they are: They all tell essentially the same story but top right and bottom left put a number (expected goals conceded) to the green/red rating. I think the top left and bottom right are cleaner so I am leaning towards including either of those as a quick look guide on the sidebar, and then put the more detailed table within a post for users to drill down into. As before, any comments/advice is welcomed.

CSIs have their crime scene. Football coaches have game film. I have some limited stats provided by premierleague.com and chalkboards . When things go wrong I like to open up the stat book, make some spreadsheets and graphs and try and desperately spot some trends or linkages that might help us predict future fantasy production better than the last 4 miserable weeks (unlike CSIs and football coaches though, I don't see CBS picking up a show focusing on me sat in my living room on my laptop anytime soon. Wait, what the hell am I saying, they picked up Shit My Dad Says. Perhaps I can get Mark Zuckerberg to play me). Clean Sheets Something that has frustrated and intrigued me so far this season is the lack of clean sheets and the seeming randomness in which they occur. To the first point, there have been 7 more clean sheets through GW 9 than last season. In fact, the weekly distribution is uncannily similar so far: As for consistency, 8 teams account for 30 of the...

I hope my previous post wasn't too downbeat as that was not the intention. It was more an expression of frustration in being unable to quantify where the fantasy success is coming from, even with the benefit of hindsight. For now though, let's put the stats aside and have our familiar (if abbreviated) ramble around the league. Clean Sheets Okay so I won't totally depart from the stats. Only 5 clean sheets this week, four of which came in two 0-0 stalemates at Villa and Ewood Park. I loved Blackburn to get the clean sheet this week but Sunderland were somewhat of a surprise given their torrid away form over the past 18 months. I did think that Villa might get a draw against Chelsea but I backed the 1-1 as suggested by my prediction spreadsheet. So far we've had 43 clean sheets, only topping 6 for a week once (in a cagey week 1). I have suggested in the past that budget defenders might be the way to go as there is little historic correlation between cost and points a...

I really don't know what to make of this season. The increased parity (by EPL standards) we are witnessing is great for competition but is wreaking havoc with the fantasy game. My top 7 ranked teams this week were about as good a clean sheet bunch as you're going to get on paper yet only Blackburn (2nd) and Everton (7th) managed to live up to their ranking with United (1st) and Newcastle (3rd) each conceding two goals at home. At the start of the season I wrote a piece about the correlation between points and cost which was strongest among forwards and hence we should focus our attention on the big name strikers. Meanwhile bargains at the defensive positions, and to an extent the midfield, meant that value can be found more easily here and hence it was less important to spend big on premium players. 8 weeks into the new season and the correlation between cost and points per 90 minutes is as below: Goalkeeper 18% Defender 42% Midfield 41% Forward 36% What does this mean?...

Boy those international weeks drag. It seems like months ago that Alex wrapped up the week with that goal but fear not as we return with some tasty fixtures for both fantasy and real reasons. The Merseyside derby looks even more interesting than usual thanks to the takeover drama at Anfield while home games against West Brom and Birmingham for United and Arsenal suggest goals a plenty for the big boys this week. You never can be sure though so hopefully the below stats and rankings can at least give us some clues who to back this week. Defensive Rankings (Based on current and prior year stats. Current year only rank in parenthesis) Man Utd (4) Blackburn (6) Newcastle (5) Bolton (11) Arsenal (15) Wolves (2) Everton (10) Fulham (6) Chelsea (9) West Ham (18) Aston Villa (6) Man City (3) Stoke (15) Tottenham (12) Liverpool (17) Blackpool (13) Sunderland (14) Wigan (1) Birmingham (20) West Brom (19) With Chelsea facing a tough trip (on paper) to Villa Park you hav...

Given my reliance on stats I sometimes refer to various formulae I have devised to measure success in the fantasy game. In case I ever forget to define anything in an article, have a look below for a quick explanation of the jargon used: aPoints A predictive tool to try and suggest how many points a player has earned compared with others if the schedule to date had been equal. In theory, the player leading this category should be the best player from here on if he maintains the same form. aPPG Adjusted points per game . Calculated by taking the standard PPG calculation and adjusting it based on the SoS faced by a team to date. This is calculated by comparing the average goals per game of a team's opponents and the average goals per game throughout the league to generate a factor. This factor is then applied to the standard PPG to give a schedule adjusted number. aPPMS Adjusted points per million spent . Calculated by taking the standard PPMS calculation and adjusting it ba...

I'm not sure there are many things in the fantasy world I enjoy more than tinkering with my team and seeing what I can get by using my wildcard. In previous years I have been forced to use my wildcard early but this year my team is still fairly strong so I could delay if I want to. However, there are pros and cons to holding onto your wildcard: Pros You can use the wildcard at a later date to take advantage of double gameweeks or if your team falls prey to numerous injuries. You can play your wildcard towards the end of the season when fantasy teams tend to get stale but real teams can hit runs of good form. We are still not totally sure which teams and players are for real and so using your wildcard now might result in you bringing in a load of in-form but ultimately overpriced lemons. With the other wildcard in your back pocket, you can select a team now based purely on the next 15 gameweeks and then redo your team again during the transfer window. Cons If you fall too fa...

I'm in a dangerous position. I'm happy with my team but two back-to-back average weeks (which were an Alex wonder goal away from being poor) have me feeling antsy. It's like when you're sat in a good bar on a Saturday night. You're happy. The beer is good. And the atmosphere is decent. But, you can't help wonder what else is available. Sure you're gonna have fun, but is it going to memorable? I think my team if fine. But is is memorable? There has been talk on the boards of wildcards but I've decided that with Drogba, Berbatov, Nani, Alex being locks to stay put and the fact I'm happy with Vidic, Odenwingie and Adam, there doesn't seem to be much point wasting my wildcard too soon. Hence I am looking to reload rather than re-build my squad. The obvious (and likely) choice is to switch Koncheky out for Boateng who I am very high on . I could also bring Boateng in for one of my budget defenders given that I have 2.8m sat in the bank. However, I...

The stars are aligning in City's first team and for Boateng's fantasy prospects: " Without flying full backs like Boateng and Kolarov, who can push forward, I’ve had to adjust the team to get results and stay in touch with the leaders. But only until everyone is back and fit .” The positive signs here are two fold: Being specifically mentioned by your manager as an important first team player is always a big deal and this ends any worries I had that Boateng might share time at the right back spot. Being described as a 'flying' full back suggests that Boateng (and Kolarov) will have plenty of freedom and will be allowed to attack the opposition regularly. Boateng's game against Newcastle does not really suggest any more freedom than Richards had but we will see if Mancini opens up the team more when everyone is fit. A further boon to Boateng's value is City's relatively kind fixture list which, while seeing City entertain both Arsenal and Unite...

It seems that Alex picked up an injury at the end of the Arsenal game and now looks set to miss 3 weeks of action. Before you press the panic button I thought I should lay down a few words of caution. 1. Alex has been sensational value this season and is third among all defenders I track in aPPMS. With the other two being El Mohamady (who is overly reliant on attacking points) and Salcido (who has only played 3 games) I would not bet against Alex leading the lot when the season is done. 2. Three weeks sounds bad but it could result in him missing just one EPL start - at Villa in GW8. This isn't a great defensive fixture anyway and so if your squad works out well you may not even lose that much. They also play Wolves at home (a very good defensive fixture) in 18 days so if Alex missed that one it would be a blow. 3. Alex has seen his price rise by 0.1m already this week after his big week so only a massive fire sale will cause his value to fall. My advice: stick with him. C...

We're seven weeks in and we're really starting to get a good idea on who we can rely and what trends are for real. I thought - in honor of the title of this weekly post - I would employ the help of Led Zeppelin to help explain the season so far: "Been dazed and confused for so long it's not true" Though the top five has a familiar look, the rest of pack appears upside down and fantasy value has been scattered throughout the league with minnows like Blackpool and West Brom providing good fantasy picks while teams like Liverpool and Everton have struggled to contribute. One of the lessons as always is to play the fixtures, which explain why Everton's midfield and forwards (hardest attacking schedule to date) have struggled while Birmingham's defense (2nd easiest defensive schedule) have provided some value. More confusing is the fact that West Brom have conceded 6 in 6 since GW2 while facing one of the hardest schedules around while Spurs have managed just ...

Alright I haven't done this before but alot of other blogs do the whole 'team of the week' thing and I thought it might be fun given that my actual team is pretty boring right now (Drogba, Malouda, Berbatov, Nani and maybe Bale are all locks to stay for now). The team has to fit in with the standard rules and my budget is whatever I can afford with my current squad (currently 103.3m). Without further ado then, here are my picks for this week: GK B.Foster DF D.Boyata DF A.Hutton DF S.Carr MD F.Malouda MD J.Milner MD Nani MD R.Van der Vaat FW D.Drogba (c) FW F.Torres FW P.Odenwingie GK S.Carson DF A.Faye DF G.Jara MD S.Parker I'm pretty happy with my first stab at a team of the week and the strategy is clearly to take advantage of value spot starters in defense to free up cash for a top line front line and midfield. Still, all my starting defenders rank in the top 5 in my clean sheet rankings but only cost a combined 18.2m. That allows me to keep the un...