Ramble On / Gameweek 9 preview
I hope my previous post wasn't too downbeat as that was not the intention. It was more an expression of frustration in being unable to quantify where the fantasy success is coming from, even with the benefit of hindsight. For now though, let's put the stats aside and have our familiar (if abbreviated) ramble around the league.
Clean Sheets
Okay so I won't totally depart from the stats. Only 5 clean sheets this week, four of which came in two 0-0 stalemates at Villa and Ewood Park. I loved Blackburn to get the clean sheet this week but Sunderland were somewhat of a surprise given their torrid away form over the past 18 months. I did think that Villa might get a draw against Chelsea but I backed the 1-1 as suggested by my prediction spreadsheet.
So far we've had 43 clean sheets, only topping 6 for a week once (in a cagey week 1). I have suggested in the past that budget defenders might be the way to go as there is little historic correlation between cost and points and this seems to hold true this season, perhaps more so than ever. If, for example I was to select a backline of budget options like Gilks, Mignolet, El Mohamady, Bramble, Alcaraz, Jones and Coleman I would have sufficient cash to pick the fairly insane front 8 of Fabregas, Malouda, Arteta, Nani, Adam, Drogba, Berbatov and Odenwingie. That gives you six every-week starters meaning you need to start 4 players from your back line, Adam and Odenwingie. If you can play the fixtures right then this could be a real recipe for success.
I am seriously considering playing my wildcard to take this strategy now and I will be posting which teams' back lines complement others' next week. I might make one slight tweak and keep Alex thus having to downgrade one of my midfielders (probably Arteta). In truth this isn't wildly different to what I have now except I am overpaying for Vidic's services (0.503 PPMS and 0.453 aPPMS) based on his current form. He faces the chop this week I think.
The Big Four
How the might have fallen. It's worrying for fantasy purposes when a traditionally great team struggles to wins games, tussles with ownership and faces the prospect of losing their best players. And things are even worse for Liverpool. Who can we trust in this United side? Nani and Berbatov are in the form of their life yet they don't have the defense nor support strikers to capitalize. Fantasy wise I feel fairly comfortable with this pair's prospects with or without Rooney but it does damage them somewhat knowing that teams may opt to stick extra men on them if the likes of Macheda, Hernandez or Owen (remember him?) are drafted in to pick up the slack.
Defensively I am terrfied for United as while they weren't outplayed by West Brom by a long shot, there were periods of that game where WBA held possession very well and looked dangerous. The manner of the conceded goals was fairly shambolic and Van der Sar looks like he needs to retire now rather than at the end of the season. I would expect O'Shea to be back in the side after Rafael failed to impress and he still represents solid value. As for his pricier teammates though, the jury is out.
Gameweek 9 Preview
Clean Sheet Rankings
(After last week's questionable rankings I have switched to using a new weighting of current and prior year data. I now base the rankings using 2/3 of this year's data and 1/3 prior year).
Apologies for the condensed write up this week, I hope to back on the weekend with a write up of the action as well as a couple of features next week. As always thanks for reading and I encourage you to check out my twitter feed or post comments below.
Clean Sheets
Okay so I won't totally depart from the stats. Only 5 clean sheets this week, four of which came in two 0-0 stalemates at Villa and Ewood Park. I loved Blackburn to get the clean sheet this week but Sunderland were somewhat of a surprise given their torrid away form over the past 18 months. I did think that Villa might get a draw against Chelsea but I backed the 1-1 as suggested by my prediction spreadsheet.
So far we've had 43 clean sheets, only topping 6 for a week once (in a cagey week 1). I have suggested in the past that budget defenders might be the way to go as there is little historic correlation between cost and points and this seems to hold true this season, perhaps more so than ever. If, for example I was to select a backline of budget options like Gilks, Mignolet, El Mohamady, Bramble, Alcaraz, Jones and Coleman I would have sufficient cash to pick the fairly insane front 8 of Fabregas, Malouda, Arteta, Nani, Adam, Drogba, Berbatov and Odenwingie. That gives you six every-week starters meaning you need to start 4 players from your back line, Adam and Odenwingie. If you can play the fixtures right then this could be a real recipe for success.
I am seriously considering playing my wildcard to take this strategy now and I will be posting which teams' back lines complement others' next week. I might make one slight tweak and keep Alex thus having to downgrade one of my midfielders (probably Arteta). In truth this isn't wildly different to what I have now except I am overpaying for Vidic's services (0.503 PPMS and 0.453 aPPMS) based on his current form. He faces the chop this week I think.
The Big Four
How the might have fallen. It's worrying for fantasy purposes when a traditionally great team struggles to wins games, tussles with ownership and faces the prospect of losing their best players. And things are even worse for Liverpool. Who can we trust in this United side? Nani and Berbatov are in the form of their life yet they don't have the defense nor support strikers to capitalize. Fantasy wise I feel fairly comfortable with this pair's prospects with or without Rooney but it does damage them somewhat knowing that teams may opt to stick extra men on them if the likes of Macheda, Hernandez or Owen (remember him?) are drafted in to pick up the slack.
Defensively I am terrfied for United as while they weren't outplayed by West Brom by a long shot, there were periods of that game where WBA held possession very well and looked dangerous. The manner of the conceded goals was fairly shambolic and Van der Sar looks like he needs to retire now rather than at the end of the season. I would expect O'Shea to be back in the side after Rafael failed to impress and he still represents solid value. As for his pricier teammates though, the jury is out.
Gameweek 9 Preview
Clean Sheet Rankings
(After last week's questionable rankings I have switched to using a new weighting of current and prior year data. I now base the rankings using 2/3 of this year's data and 1/3 prior year).
- Chelsea
- Tottenham
- West Brom
- Man City
- Sunderland
- Birmingham
- Liverpool
- Everton
- Bolton
- West Ham
- Blackpool
- Newcastle
- Fulham
- Stoke
- Man Utd
- Blackburn
- Arsenal
- Aston Villa
- Wigan
- Wolves
- Chelsea (5.04)
- Bolton (2.30)
- Sunderland (1.92)
- Man City (1.76)
- Liverpool (1.68)
- Stoke (1.39)
- Man Utd (1.33)
- West Brom (1.32)
- West Ham (1.27)
- Birmingham (1.07)
- Newcastle (1.02)
- Wigan (0.93)
- Tottenham (0.92)
- Blackburn (0.78)
- Blackpool (0.77)
- Aston Villa (0.64)
- Arsenal (0.63)
- Fulham (0.57)
- Everton (0.37)
- Wolves (0.14)
- Didier Drogba
- Florent Malouda
- Ashley Cole
- Carlos Tevez
- Darren Bent
- Dimitar Berbatov
- Nani
Apologies for the condensed write up this week, I hope to back on the weekend with a write up of the action as well as a couple of features next week. As always thanks for reading and I encourage you to check out my twitter feed or post comments below.
Comments
My other option is to bring in a defender for Stam or Faye.
Any advice?
Chris: what do you make of the return of Bosingwa? He is scheduled to start this week against Wolves. How do you think his resurgence will affect Ivanovic and, more importantly, Alex? Thanks!
West Ham's fixtures are boom and bust so if you're looking for a spot starter Parker looks like a nice consistent option with decent upside.
I think Stam is the man to ditch though. Wigan are ranked 19th in the current/prior year rankings and 16th based on solely this year so Stam looks to have little value. I love Seamus Coleman as his replacement and plan to buy him myself this week. Williamson is also an option but I am discouraged by Newcastle's defense and much prefer Everton for the medium term. Sunderland's fixtures are also very good making El Mohamady an interesting prospect.
I would ditch Stam for sure, and my pick would be Coleman.