Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Alex injury

It seems that Alex picked up an injury at the end of the Arsenal game and now looks set to miss 3 weeks of action. Before you press the panic button I thought I should lay down a few words of caution.

1. Alex has been sensational value this season and is third among all defenders I track in aPPMS. With the other two being El Mohamady (who is overly reliant on attacking points) and Salcido (who has only played 3 games) I would not bet against Alex leading the lot when the season is done.

2. Three weeks sounds bad but it could result in him missing just one EPL start - at Villa in GW8. This isn't a great defensive fixture anyway and so if your squad works out well you may not even lose that much. They also play Wolves at home (a very good defensive fixture) in 18 days so if Alex missed that one it would be a blow.

3. Alex has seen his price rise by 0.1m already this week after his big week so only a massive fire sale will cause his value to fall.

My advice: stick with him. Concentrate on improving your bench around him to plug the gap for one or two gameweeks and get ready to welcome him back soon as Chelsea's defensive fixtures are great until GW15.

4 comments:

Steven said...

My plan exactly.

Craig B said...

Can't role with two injured defenders and it sounds as though you, Chris, are beginning to sour on Konchesky. I have 2 transfers and a little money in the bank and this is what I am thinking:

K.Davies, Konchesky => Elmander, J.Boateng
or
Bale, Konchesky => Parker, J.Boateng
could also just do
Konchesky=> G.Cahill (though I have Jussi as one of my keepers, just don't like any other budget def right now) and save a transfer

What do you think. Will Boateng be fit and starting after the break? Still a rotation risk? I would still have Williamson, P.Jones, & Elmohamady in a pinch.

The Gaffer said...

I have had Alex since GW 3 and intend to keep him till end of season

Chris Glover said...

Craig - you're right. I have turned on Konchesky quicker than Liverpool fans will turn on John Henry. I still like his value given that he costs 1m less than his teammates, but Liverpool just aren't a good team right now which makes Konchesky no better value than he was when at Fulham. I do think Hodgson is a good manager and perhaps with the new ownership the club will stabilise and he even spend some cash in January but I would want to see 3 or 4 back to back performances from Liverpool before I touch any of their players.

I like Boateng alot and I think he'll slot in and play most weeks after the break. Toure is probably a slightly safer play but given Boateng's attacking presence I might just give him the edge. I plan on making the Konchesky > Boateng sub myself this week.

Elmander has been on tremendous form, though last season I would say stay away given his past offensive struggles. However, I have been looking at some numbers trying to quantify 'form' and the early signs are that you should jump on bandwagons (even if a week or two late) provided you believe that player can deliver at least some value in the future even if he cools down (this would exclude a player who will get 3 games and then return to the bench, which I would deem as too little of a return for the cost of two transfers). Therefore, I like Elmander and he has always been a player who needs confidence. Over the season I would say they finish on a similar level but if you can ride Elmo for now and are prepared to use another transfer at Christmas to ditch him, then the move seems to make sense.

I see you are eyeing up ditching Bale and that too is a course I am considering. However, he is still owned by 48% of all players so it's a huge blow if you don't own him and he scores. I think over the course of the season Van der Vaat may outscore him (but costs more) so I am holding off on that move.

I agree Steven and Gaffer - Im on Alex until further notice.