Tuesday, October 12, 2010

PLFantasy Glossary

Given my reliance on stats I sometimes refer to various formulae I have devised to measure success in the fantasy game. In case I ever forget to define anything in an article, have a look below for a quick explanation of the jargon used:

aPoints A predictive tool to try and suggest how many points a player has earned compared with others if the schedule to date had been equal. In theory, the player leading this category should be the best player from here on if he maintains the same form.

aPPG Adjusted points per game. Calculated by taking the standard PPG calculation and adjusting it based on the SoS faced by a team to date. This is calculated by comparing the average goals per game of a team's opponents and the average goals per game throughout the league to generate a factor. This factor is then applied to the standard PPG to give a schedule adjusted number.

aPPMS Adjusted points per million spent. Calculated by taking the standard PPMS calculation and adjusting it based on the SoS faced by a team to date. This is calculated by comparing the average goals per game of a team's opponents and the average goals per game throughout the league to generate a factor. This factor is then applied to the standard PPMS to give a schedule adjusted number.

DGW Double gameweek. Occurs when a team faces two opponents in a single gameweek.

Differentiator A player who performs well despite not being widely held by other managers. Essential for any team trying to extend their lead or catch their opponent.

Green light game A game in which a player has a favorable matchup. Specifically, when a defender faces an opponent who score less than a goal a game or an attacker faces an opponent who concede more than 1.5 goals per game.

GW22 Gameweek 22

PPMS Points per million spent. Calculated as PPG divided by a player's cost at today's date. Designed to try and assess a player's relative value rather than just his points production. A rate of 0.658 is required to achieve a 2,000 season (see Value Line below).

PPMS diff The difference between standard PPMS and aPPMS. A player with a high value has played tough fixtures to date and should benefit from increased returns in the future.

PPG Points per game. Simply calculated as total points scored divided by the number of appearances made.

Red light game A game in which a player has an unfavorable matchup. Specifically, when a defender faces an opponent who score more than 1.5 goals per game or an attacker faces an opponent who concede less than 1.0 goals per game.

SoS6 The strength of schedule for a player/team over the next 6 weeks. When discussing an attacker this will be based on the opposition's defensive rankings while for a defender it will be based on the opposition's attacking prowess. The 6 refers to the number of weeks over which the strength of schedule is taken from (normally either 1, 6 or 12).

Value line The point which players need to generate sufficient points to help you to a 2,000 season. This equates to 53 points per week, 4.8 PPG for an individual player and a PPMS of 0.658 (based on the assumption that you will spend 80m on your starters and 20m on your bench).

xDF The points scored by a defender that are exclusively due to defensive performance (appearance, clean sheet and bonus points). Used to predict long term returns as assist and goals by defenders are generally hard to forecast.

1 comment:

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