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Getting defensive
Attack-minded defenders have long been considered one of the key ingredients to a successful fantasy team, and while I may personally suggest this quest is sometimes overpursued, there's no arguing with the overall premise that such a player can be extremely valuable. Two issues arise though. First, managers tend to overvalue this threat, paying huge premiums which simply cannot be justified. The most obvious example of this in recent times has been Leighton Baines (who has rarely justified the huge premium required to get him) though we've seen similar trends in the past with the likes of Thomas Vermaelen, Nemandja Vidic and even Joleon Lescott. Second, managers tend to overvalue past success, which can be ill advised at the best of times but is particularly dangerous with defenders. With a few notable exceptions, defenders tend to enjoy limited chances to earn points and the sample sizes involved are generally very small. Thus, a player with the odd goal coming from a ...
Will some players always underachieve?
We had an interesting comment from a reader this week regarding the visualization posted plotting actual points with expected points. My proposition was that the players whose xP trailed their actual points by a distance were likely undervalued by the market, and while we wouldn't suggest they will somehow "make up" those points left on the table to date, we would expect their production to take an uptick assuming they continue to get chances and playing time at a relatively consistent rate. The reader had a different view: "When I look at this chart I don't see underperformers or overperformers all I see is players on form who are capitalising on their chances (Ramsey and Rooney) and players who are of such quality that they will always out perform the normal (Aguero and Yaya) . . . I believe that if you reconstructed this table after xmas with a start date of tomorrow then the same players would occupy the two sides." It's a fair proposition and...
Points versus expected points
The below chart is something I've posted before and am tweaking for the new website so I thought I should post it now and get your feedback while also hopefully providing a quick view to identifying some players to research further: Learn About Tableau
Gameweek 11 Preview
Post any questions in the comments below, on Twitter or on Facebook and I'll get to the best ones before this week's deadline. Learn About Tableau