Gameweek 11 Preview
Post any questions in the comments below, on Twitter or on Facebook and I'll get to the best ones before this week's deadline.
Expected goals plus-minus
As the season ticks on, we're starting to get a bit of data to work with, albeit sometimes in small samples. This season I am not working with a relatively complex player model but am really interested in trying to "play the fixtures" as much as I can. A couple of sources of frustration, therefore, have been as below: 1. Sites which provide the difficulty of fixtures often seem a bit simplistic. For example, the Premier League site shows Wolves as an average "3-rated" opponent, both at home and away yet the reality is more complicated. While at home they have been very solid defensively, with an Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) of just 4.71 in five games, which ranks third best, yet on their travels they have surrendered 7.94 xGC, which is the third worst . Even more confusing is that most sites ( though not all ) don't distinguish between attacking and defensive fixtures, so facing Leeds at home is presented as an easy "2-rated" fixture when in reali
Comments
Januzaj has been added but you'll need to lower the risk slider to see him as he was benched for so long to open the year.
As for Swansea, while there's value to be found there and they look like a reasonable play this week, I don't think this a borderline top-5 unit as some suggest. They've held opponents to less SiB than they average just three times in ten weeks and while they did register a couple of clean sheets recently, giving up 12 SiB to teams like West Ham will likely ensure such continued success is limited. Indeed, only CAR and FUL have surrendered more SiB at home this season.
Ozil has been better at home than away, but it's closer than his fantasy points suggest and I would have no worries playing him in every game. United have been barely above league average in terms of shot suppression to date (+/- of -9%) and there's really no reason to overly discount players heading to Old Trafford these days, at least until we see signs that United have become a formidable defense again. That's not to say I would personally captain him or sign him for the week but I'd stick by the model here.