Expected goals plus-minus
As the season ticks on, we're starting to get a bit of data to work with, albeit sometimes in small samples. This season I am not working with a relatively complex player model but am really interested in trying to "play the fixtures" as much as I can. A couple of sources of frustration, therefore, have been as below: 1. Sites which provide the difficulty of fixtures often seem a bit simplistic. For example, the Premier League site shows Wolves as an average "3-rated" opponent, both at home and away yet the reality is more complicated. While at home they have been very solid defensively, with an Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) of just 4.71 in five games, which ranks third best, yet on their travels they have surrendered 7.94 xGC, which is the third worst . Even more confusing is that most sites ( though not all ) don't distinguish between attacking and defensive fixtures, so facing Leeds at home is presented as an easy "2-rated" fixture when in reali
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You mention in one of your replies last week that Swansea are conceding a lot of SIB which made me reassess weither they are a good defensive outfit and sure enough they conceded 3 goals at the weekend.
So is there any chance of an early season assessment of team defenses?
I know you like to leave it until half way throught the season (so that every team has played the same sides) but it seems as if every FF team consists of
Mignolet/Boruc --- Dawson/Southampton/Coleman
but with fixtures turning against them until the winter WC (except Liverpool) is it worth considering a differential defense? Maybe Stoke/Newc/WBA?
Or will the template teams most likely continue to score well?
Any article about defenses would be greatly appreciated :)