Expected goals plus-minus
As the season ticks on, we're starting to get a bit of data to work with, albeit sometimes in small samples. This season I am not working with a relatively complex player model but am really interested in trying to "play the fixtures" as much as I can. A couple of sources of frustration, therefore, have been as below: 1. Sites which provide the difficulty of fixtures often seem a bit simplistic. For example, the Premier League site shows Wolves as an average "3-rated" opponent, both at home and away yet the reality is more complicated. While at home they have been very solid defensively, with an Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) of just 4.71 in five games, which ranks third best, yet on their travels they have surrendered 7.94 xGC, which is the third worst . Even more confusing is that most sites ( though not all ) don't distinguish between attacking and defensive fixtures, so facing Leeds at home is presented as an easy "2-rated" fixture when in reali
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Nevertheless, I still love reading your statistic findings.
1) Using the numbers to supplement your knowledge.
The numbers don't lie (well, unless you want them too) and will sometimes produce strange results (such as Drenthe in seventh this Gameweek) that need investigating. I'm not saying follow the numbers blindly, but use them to validate or to disprove your theories.
2) Statistics can also form the basis of your decision. This is the way I believe Chris uses. This way, you build your team around likely scorers and use your gut feeling/own judgement/personal oppinion seldom.
I am sizing up a swapout of Sturridge for either Demba Ba or Bobby Zamora this week. QPR's schedule is terrific but NWC's isn't bad either (esp at home). One observation on the captain ratings here - Ba's rating in your chart is tipping me toward Ba, but Zamora's rating here has been skewed by his transfer, I think. If you take his % and multiply it times QPR's expected goals v. Wolves (as opposed to Ful v. MC as it appears to be in the chart), Zamora's rating is 0.72, if I'm not mistaken. That puts him near the top. Obviously, the data is not as valid as he has not been with QPR all season (thereby skewing the %), but it's probably got enough heft to make me think Ba is not quite a no-brainer.