PLFantasy

Over half the teams have now played and to be honest - with the exception of the impressive Germans - I am pretty underwhelmed. Too many team have been overly cautious and are scared of losing rather than trying to win. As a keen amateur economist I must once again point to risk aversion - the fear of losing something weighs greater on the mind than the joy in gaining. So, the fear of losing a point prevents teams risking it all to win three (a two point gain). How true then is the notion that you simply can't lose your first game? Let's look at the data from the last 3 World Cups to see the trends: 2006 - of the 16 teams that qualified there were 11 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in the first game 2002 - of the 16 teams that qualified there were 9 wins, 6 draws and 1 losses in the first game 1998 - of the 16 teams that qualified there were 11 wins, 5 draws and 0 losses in the first game The above data shows that if you lose your first game, the chance of making the last 16 based...

With only hours to go until the greatest show on earth kicks off, it's time to lock in my predictions. I'm finding it hard to find too many great underdogs this year - though I'm sure they'll be some - some there's the potential for these predictions to go horribly wrong early on: Last 16 France Greece England Serbia Netherlands Paraguay Brazil Chile Argentina Uruguay Germany USA Italy Denmark Spain Cote D'Ivoire Quarter Finals France Serbia Netherlands Brazil Argentina USA Italy Spain Semi Final France Netherlands Spain Argentina Final Netherlands Spain Champions Netherlands Golden Boot Leo Messi (dark horse Van Persie) Biggest Surprise Team Serbia / USA Player that earns a big money move Marek Hamsik / Alexis Sanchez

I am assuming here that most of us are playing the official FIFA fantasy game and so I will focus all strategy ideas and player picks on that game. Before we start, here's a quick run down of the key rules regarding lineups and transfers: Transfers Once the tournament kicks off, its only 1 transfer before round 2 and 1 before round 3 (without incurring a 3 point penalty) and so your squad really needs to carry you through the group stages (save for an injury or an unexpected benching). After the group stages you can reload your entire team so there isn't an absolute need for your squad to be made up players challenging for the trophy. However, with the price rises, it will pay somewhat to get on board a player early who you think might make an unexpected run to the last 8 and beyond. Substitutions At the start of each day, you can replace any player in your starting eleven with a player from the bench who is yet to play (provided he wasn't sent off). You do not have to re...

The official game price list is out and it makes for some interesting reading. Before delving too much into strategy I thought I'd throw out a few names of players who jump off the page as being potential bargains or players I like better than those for the same value: Casillas 8m lloris 6.5m Stekelenburg 6.5m Cole 7.5m Chiellini 7m Evra 7m Van der Wiel 6.5m Albiol 6m Subotic 4m Kaka 10m Xavi 9.5m Di Maria 8m Lennon 7m Fernandez 6.5m Gourcuff 6.5m Hamsik 6m Dempsey 5.5m Messi 10m Villa 10m Van Persie 8m Suarez 7m Sanchez 6m Frei 5.5m Keepers are valuable in the game given their extra two points for clean sheets and so I think it's worth paying extra for a premium guy. Strikers probably have slightly more value that midfielders as all players score 5 points for a goal regardless of position. However, I think that the position falls off quickly and so I will load up on two or even three top guys and go for the mid range midfield option (not unlike my favourite EPL tactic for th...

There aren't many things I like better than prospect lists and I'm a huge sucker for 'the next big thing', spending countless hours watching high school football prospects, soccer phenoms from Brazil and college baseball. When I can combine some crystal ball gazing with the World Cup, well, it just doesn't get any better. Here then is my list of prospects to look our for this World Cup. The only rule is that you can't have been in your country's squad in the World Cup before, so a couple of these guys are household names while a couple will hopefully give you someone new to look for (depending on how much you play Football Manager or scour the internet and YouTube) GK Hugo Lloris Lloris has been on the world scene for several years, often tipped as the long term replacement for Edwin van der Sar or the answer to Arsene Wenger's goalkeeper woes. It's incredible to think that Fabian Barthez (yeh, remember him?!) was Les Bleus number one in ...

Get your bets in now guys, Doc Brown has fired up the old Delorian and left us a treat on the Sky Sports website. The highly anticipated England-US game is going to finish 2-2. For reference, Bet365 are quoting 22-1 (+2200) on that result.