Friday, May 11, 2012

Gameweek 38 Captain Data



P90 Points scored per 90 minutes at home/away based on this week's opponents QG% Percentage of games played where the player scored 6 or more points xPct The percentage of his team's goals a player has accounted for, multiplied by the expected goals for this week Rating Based on the player's rankings in the other three categories.

Note: above data assumes 90 minutes of action, with rotation risk not being factored in.

The data hasn't liked anyone as much as Aguero this week for some time and when you look at the numbers on a granular basis it's hard to argue. Aguero has been simply dominant at home all year (10.0 P90) and welcomes a QPR side with plenty to play for, but insufficient talent to do so barring what could be one of the biggest upsets of all time. There's an argument to be made for nerves playing a factor with City and they may play defensively if they were 1-0 up at half time, though I'd counter that with an equally (or more) likely scenario where City get ahead early and prove to be simply too much for QPR (Arsenal vs Everton springs to mind when they won the title a number of years back).

Rooney of course will be doing all he can to secure a win this week too, though with the goal difference gap so wide, I don't see United playing a ridiculously cavalier game from the start (they have to be mindful remember that City could draw). He's a good bet as always but the fixture is just so much harder than Aguero's that to pick him you're really getting too deep into who's "motivated", "nervous" or "good in clutch situations" which doesn't sit well with the statistical leanings of this humble blogger.

Arsenal, of course, have something left to play for too, with 3rd spot taking on an even greater important this year with Chelsea's presence in the Champions League final (England only gets four spots so if they win, only the top three qualify). Regardless, I would never pick against Van Persie and Arsenal are a team whose peaks and troughs don't seem to overly correlate with any one factor so just ride the waves and play Van Persie every week. As for captaining him, again the fixture is much tougher than Aguero's though if you're getting into possible outcomes, you could see West Brom going for this one, resulting in a high scoring affair (one could also argue that Hodgson will rouse one last performance from his team though and win, so like I say, the narrative isn't too informative).

If I owned van Persie and Rooney (indeed, I do) I would certainly consider selling one of them for Aguero this week, dependent on other areas of need in your team. Needless to say, I wouldn't pay 4 points to do so. Of the two, I am leaning towards selling Rooney, mainly based on the percentage of goals Van Persie accounts for. For the final game it's tough to tell how many goals will be scored with so many factors in play, so give me the bigger slice of an unknown pie, rather than a smaller piece of a possibly larger pie.

I wouldn't personally touch the Chelsea game given the total lack of incentive for them to win the game (they can't even move up or down one place in the league). Indeed, if I had money tied up in Torres or Mata I would looking to divest those options this week, not double down by captaining them.

Of the sleeper picks (sleeper in terms of captain picks rather than ownership numbers) you have to like Tottenham against a Fulham side who have been poor away from home all year, making Bale, Adebayor and van der Vaart viable options. Adebayor's xPct gives him the advantage here as when's he's played he's had a hand in 45% of Spurs' goals, a much better rate than teammates Bale (32%) and van der Vaart (37%). Spurs obviously have to go out for a win and hope for some help from West Brom to secure 3rd, but also need to win to hold off a potential challenge for 4th (which could still lead to Champions League football) from Newcastle. He's inconsistent, to be sure, but Adebayor's ceiling is as high as anyone this week and he would make a superb risk/reward bet for those looking to think outside the box in the final week.

3 comments:

Jason said...

Chris,

Thanks for all your advice this season, it's my 2nd playing FF.

This year I set a goal of 2000 points and head into this GW happy on 1982. A lot of that is down to your help.

Looking forward to the pre season analysis!

DtotheT said...

many thanks Chris, hope to see you around here next season, Dave

GoatPoo FC said...

In second position with 1990 and about 40 points back from 1st place! Would not have been there without your help! Looking forward to defending my league title with some bold moves this week. Keep it going strong next season!

LBC, CA USA