Friday, March 9, 2012

Gameweek 28 Captain Data



P90 Points scored per 90 minutes at home/away based on this week's opponents QG% Percentage of games played where the player scored 6 or more points xPct The percentage of his team's goals a player has accounted for, multiplied by the expected goals for this week Rating Based on the player's rankings in the other three categories.

Many will be considering specifically bringing Suarez in for this week and his double gameweek deserves a bit of attention here.

His xPct mark of 0.710 is solid and is based on Liverpool being forecast to score just over a couple of goals and Suarez accounting for around of third of their goals when he plays. However, we probably have a tendency to overvalue double gameweeks and I'd suggest there's a fairly strong argument to be made for Arsenal scoring as many or more against Newcastle than Liverpool will in two games (neither of which is particularly easy).

The reason Suarez finds himself so far down the list is because the rating is also based on production to date, an area where Suarez is obviously not in the elite class so far this year. Potential? Yes. Undoubted skill? Of course. Tonnes of baggage and patchy form? Unfortunately, also yes.


Throw in the fact that his shot totals have really taken a beating of late (6 total shots and 3 on target in the last 4 gameweeks) and you get to a point where a Suarez pick is really based on potential and a bit of educated conjecture. Would I be surprised if he has a decent week? Of course not. But there's a non zero chance that he simply picks up 3 or 4 points and fades into anonymity once again. Consider that Suarez has more games (11) where he failed to top 3 points, than Van Persie (10) despite Van Persie playing 5 more games than Suarez.

On the positive side, what the above ranking does not factor into account, at least not to a level it perhaps should, is that Suarez (and the other elite Liverpool players) is close to a guaranteed 4 appearance points and has a double chance at bonus points, so his floor is probably higher than anyone this week.Consider, for example, that if he plays 180 minutes and notches just a loan assist, that will still be good for 7 points (plus bonus) which would probably match a goal scoring week for Van Persie et al. Avoiding 2 pointers should be a consideration for your captain (or -1 pointers in Ba's case last week) and Suarez clearly has an advantage in this area.

I'd be more than happy owning Suarez for the week - indeed, I may make that move myself - but I see captaining him as overly risky given Van Persie's home fixture. With Arsenal out of Europe there is little reason for the Dutchman to rest, especially given that they then have 9 days until the next game, and so he looks like the clear captain pick for this week again.

If you don't own Van Persie (shame!) then Rooney would be the next obvious candidate. I am ignoring Lampard for a second, as I don't believe he's worth long term investment, though he's obviously a great play this week. Aguero owners might want to think about grabbing Rooney for the next 3 weeks as City's fixtures look tough and a fit again Dzeko, Balotelli and even Tevez look like an ominous group to threaten Kun's minutes. 

2 comments:

RLB said...

Your thoughts on Captaining a Liverpool defender??

Genevapics said...

@RLB:

I have Enrique and I have certainly given it a thought. The problem with (C) a defender is, one fluke goal and you go from 6pts to 2pts in the blink of an eye. It's a bold move and I am just not sure it is worth the gamble.