Friday, September 17, 2010

Gameweek 5 Preview

Apologies but I am in my final week of traveling and so this week's preview is going to be a condensed version. I will however respond to all comments in the previous post to answer your questions and will try and get to anything posted below before Saturday.

Injuries seem to be dominating the fantasy landscape at the moment with Valencia and Zamora the latest long term injuries. Modric will be back quicker than expected though this could be a double edged sword as the Spurs midfield remains a crowded place.

As this is the time of year when we all need to start making changes I have included the mid-long term ranks of all players I discuss below to indicate if they are one week options or should be transfer targets.

Clean Sheet Rankings
  1. Chelsea
  2. Man Utd
  3. Tottenham
  4. Blackburn
  5. Aston Villa
  6. Stoke
  7. Man City
  8. Everton
  9. WBA
  10. Sunderland
  11. Arsenal
  12. Fulham
  13. Wigan
  14. West Ham
  15. Birmingham
  16. Newcastle
  17. Liverpool
  18. Bolton
  19. Wolves
  20. Blackpool
 Captain Rankings
  1. Didier Drogba
  2. Florent Malouda
  3. Frank Lampard*
  4. Ashley Cole
  5. Nicolas Anelka
  6. John Terry
  7. Dimitar Berbatov
  8. Nani
  9. Nemanja Vidic
  10. Carlos Tevez
*Check injury status

It's all about Chelsea this week as they welcome Blackpool to Stamford Bridge in what, on paper, could be a massacre. Based on previous results, the statistics predict somewhere in the 5 to 6-0 range, which is obviously a stretch but you would be disappointed if Chelsea didn't notch 3 goals. Drogba, Malouda, Lampard and Cole have all been rested/suspended for either last week's game or the midweek game in Europe so barring injury (which only seems to threaten Lampard) they should all feature this week. Lampard is the sole risk but I would feel comfortable captaining him so long as you have another suitable captain ready to sub-in.

Elsewhere I like Man Utd alot to recover from last week's draw against a Liverpool side who struggle mightily for goals away from Anfield. While this led to a 0-0 at Birmingham, United are a different beast and even without Valencia I can see them having far too much quality for Liverpool in this one. While I am not predicting a whitewash, I would be comfortable backing the statistical prediction of 2-0.

Thanks for reading and we'll be back to full service for the first time this season for GW6 as my travels draw to an end. Expect some especially geeky analysis coming your way soon!

9 comments:

TD Ocho said...

Ancelotti said at his press conference that Lampard will miss the game.

David A said...

Chris:

I really enjoy the site, your analysis makes a lot of sense and I'm trying to follow it. I played my wildcard this week in the hopes that a radical move will salvage my current so-so showing and put me in contention again, so I want to get my lineup basically set for the long term.

So whats your take on the long term D prospects of a team like Arsenal? I'm trying to buy the cheapest defenders who almost always start on teams with good defenses. I have OShea and Konchesky to give myself some top 4 exposure (that is if Liverpool ever return to form), but I'm wondering if I should invest in a 6M Arsenal man and a cheap 4M D man like Foley to be my third sub, or if I should take two midpriced guys like Hughes and Jones? I'm nervous having three players from Arsenal at the same time out of fear of putting all my eggs in one basket, but then again its Arsenal. I'm staying away from Chelsea D for the next few weeks given their tough schedule. This is my team as it stands, I want to make sure its right though before my wildcard ends tonight.

G: Foster, Robinson
D: OShea, Konchesky, L Young, Hughes, Jones
M: Malouda, Arshavin, Bale, A Johnson, C Adam
F: Drogba, Carrol, Chamakh

auburn.tigers2011 said...

Chris, thanks for the response to my past questions. I think I will hold on to Milner through the Newcastle and Blackpool games and then take a look at Cesc. Of course if Milner keeping returning 2 and 3 point games and Cesc is putting together double digit ones then I may go ahead and move Milner out for him

Steven said...

Milner and Tevez out, Cesc and Berbatov in. Cesc is coming into form and Berbatov is already there .. now facing a questionable Liverpool back line. Reina has been their savior as of late. I feel good about this one but I'll still be crossing my fingers !

Ryan said...

Chris - As always, I'm a massive fan of your work. Keep it up! Your insightful and intuitive analyses really help us overcome our weekly fantasy quandaries.

I'm thinking of bringing in Konchesky after this gameweek (GW 5) as a medium-to-long-term solution. To afford him, I'll have to sacrifice either Hart, Sagna or Alex. Who do you think I should sell? Or do you think I'm better off just sticking to what I have?

Colin said...

Chris,

Just wondering how you are planning on handling the Fabregas situation. I've already got him in my side and was particularly pleased after much chopping and changing to have the four 'untouchables' in my team be Fabregas, Drogba, Malouda and Berbatov. However, now Fab is injured again, I am in a bit of a qaundry as to whether to move him out and if so then who to replace him with. The best I can see is some kind of multi-transfer rejig, involving bringing in Tevez and another solid midfielder (since I already have Malouda, I don't see too many other high scoring midfielders about). Bringing in Gerrard in a straight swap is also an option in the short term too I guess (but for some reason I don't find that too appetising). I definitely see him as being part of my side this season, whenever he gets his ass fit again, but he's proving to be my biggest problem, as 12M is a lot to have sitting on the bench and my side is pretty finely balanced, financially, so if he does come back and surprise us, then I won't be able to afford him if his price goes up!!! Any way I'd appreciate your thoughts on this...

Colin said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Andrew said...

Colin - Cesc has said that he hopes to be back after two weeks, with other reports saying four weeks. I've already pulled the trigger and transferred him out.

If you've read my comments over the last year, you know that I am a firm believer in playing the fixtures. Here's my Cesc replacement rankings:

1. Gerrard - Liverpool's next two games should see goals (and at least one clean sheet) from Liverpool. I've gone with Gerrard for the sole reason that he has the best fixtures of the "big name" midfielders.

2. Nasri - If you want to capitalize on Arsenal's easy game this weekend, Arshavin's your man. Arsenal is away to Chelsea next week though. Plus, Nasri will be on penalties, if the game vs. Tottenham is an indicator.

3. Arshavin - More of a natural attacker than Nasri, but not on spot kick duty.

4. Dempsey - Being played in an advanced role, which always increases goal potential. Fixtures are mediocre.

5. Milner - I'm not a big fan of Milner at Man City for his price. But, if you intend to just hold him for about 3-4 weeks, it's a fine swap.

Steven said...

Andrew/Colin:
I went with Arshavin for Cesc this week. I will be bringing in a replacement for the following week.. depending on injuries etc.. most likely that will be Gerrard, Nani or Milner in that ordre based on the fixtures while Cesc is out. Gerrard has a great fixture next week and Milner has the best 2 fixtures after this week's matchup with Chelsea. Nani looks to be a 90% starter on the right side with Valencia out.