Expected goals plus-minus
As the season ticks on, we're starting to get a bit of data to work with, albeit sometimes in small samples. This season I am not working with a relatively complex player model but am really interested in trying to "play the fixtures" as much as I can. A couple of sources of frustration, therefore, have been as below: 1. Sites which provide the difficulty of fixtures often seem a bit simplistic. For example, the Premier League site shows Wolves as an average "3-rated" opponent, both at home and away yet the reality is more complicated. While at home they have been very solid defensively, with an Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) of just 4.71 in five games, which ranks third best, yet on their travels they have surrendered 7.94 xGC, which is the third worst . Even more confusing is that most sites ( though not all ) don't distinguish between attacking and defensive fixtures, so facing Leeds at home is presented as an easy "2-rated" fixture when in reali
Comments
Some comments:
1. With OPTA now incorporating Expected Goals into their stats displayed on TV, surely it'll become a common topic of conversation eventually... Do you have plans on incorporating those or at least estimating causality/projections? I'd love to see what your models can come up with, especially with the latest visualisation techniques you're using
2. I'd suggest that you take a punt at developing alternative shot profiles. Inside/outside the box shots are a fantastic start, but should the 18 yard line really be the chief metric?