Expected goals plus-minus
As the season ticks on, we're starting to get a bit of data to work with, albeit sometimes in small samples. This season I am not working with a relatively complex player model but am really interested in trying to "play the fixtures" as much as I can. A couple of sources of frustration, therefore, have been as below: 1. Sites which provide the difficulty of fixtures often seem a bit simplistic. For example, the Premier League site shows Wolves as an average "3-rated" opponent, both at home and away yet the reality is more complicated. While at home they have been very solid defensively, with an Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) of just 4.71 in five games, which ranks third best, yet on their travels they have surrendered 7.94 xGC, which is the third worst . Even more confusing is that most sites ( though not all ) don't distinguish between attacking and defensive fixtures, so facing Leeds at home is presented as an easy "2-rated" fixture when in reali
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I hope Manchester United will be better next season
For the avoidance of doubt, I want to confirm that I was being sarcastic in my post above. I am repeatedly staggered by the lack of gratitude that some people display when offered an amazing free service such as your blog.
My lines about Serie A, etc were intended to play Graeme's tone back to him in an exaggeration fashion.
It would be extremely unfortunate if they were interpreted in any other way.
As ever, I look forward to another post from you in hope rather than expectation.
Zog
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Hope all is well.