Friday, January 10, 2014

Gameweek 21 Preview

Thankyou for all the kind words of encouragement this week after my confession of apathy surrounding my fantasy scribbles of late. It wasn't meant as a plea for attention but the messages were genuinely humbling and have forced me back to my senses quicker than expected. I still don't have anything interesting to write this week, but here is the week's data and my model is at least up to date again. Here's hoping to see you back in these pages soon.


7 comments:

df0d40a8-7b0b-11e3-89a4-000bcdcb8a73 said...

Glad to see you back. Your site is really helpful. Even better to see that you've updated the player dashboard. Why no love for Lallana? The model doesn't seem to favor SOU players. Why? They seem to have great fixtures.

df0d40a8-7b0b-11e3-89a4-000bcdcb8a73 said...

I don't know why my post is under the name with all of the crazy letters/numbers. I'm Ralxa.

Sean H said...

Great to see you back! Kolarov looking like a real option now, as opposed to the 'pretend' one he's been in the past. Price rise incoming...

Sean H said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Jon Gray said...

Good to see the Blog active again.

@Sean H

He seems to be ahead of Clichy. I've just hit the wildcard button on hearing Aguero's return is imminent, and I think I'll take a punt on Kolarov while I'm at it.

Steven said...

It's funny Chris, I was still checking your blog. But I have to say, I could tell that you were less enthusiastic about it this year. Let's face it; this is a game and at the end of the day, it's not always high on the priority list. That said, your insight in years past was truly valuable.

That said, as a consumer, my suggestion is to simplify. Data is always interesting and the conclusions made from it can be interpretted many different ways as you know. I would suggest presenting it in such a way that your conclusions are at the front and center rather then the raw data. I'm always interested in hearing commentary rather then looking at raw data all the time.

Anyway, welcome back. Looking forward to your future posts.

Steve

scout said...

Chris,

first of all, thanks a lot for a great site (yes, did buy the guide pre-season) - so many opinionated fantasy writers/bloggers out there, but very very few with a proprietary fact-based approach. Your original content makes this a must read. Sorry to hear about the lack of positive and quality commentary – personally I just have little to contribute, your analysis and data tells the story and there is little to add.

Below is something (lengthy) that I cannot recall you’ve penetrated over the couple of years I’ve read your blog. Would be great to hear your views, even if you don’t have a deep analysis.

Related to the 'value' of players (points divided by player price) and building ‘the optimal wildcard team’ – how do you distribute your funds optimally across GK-DEF-MID-FWD?

A few observations:
a) Expected / actual points and player price are highly correlated
b) If you did the ‘value’ calculation it seems GK and then DEF offers most ‘bang for the buck’ while MID and FWD offer less
c) Lower-priced options typically provide higher value than the highest-priced players (e.g. Brady vs. Ozil)
d) You probably want at least one very expensive player as captain, since the points and price are correlated
e) You probably want as little money as possible on your bench any given week, again since points and price are correlated. Meaning that you need to balance players with high value with actually using all of your funds.

1. That would seem to suggest a hypothesis want a lot of money tied up in GK and DEF due to high ‘value’ – however, since even the expensive defenders are lower-priced, you need to make sure the MID and FWD you play are expensive enough so you leave little money on the bench (e.g. cheap GK, cheap DEF, cheap MID, cheap FWD). It could also suggest you actually SHOULD be investing in the attack-minded defenders, the Baines of the world… (sorry…) so you maximize money invested where the price vs.. points curve is steepest.

2. A caveat to the hypothesis (there are probably more): Predictability of points: If the points earned by GK and DEF are more easily predicted (e.g. by home vs away game). Then it might not be as clear cut.

3. The reasoning above would suggest that you should fill your team with expensive defenders such as Baines, Kompany, Coleman, Mertesacker, make sure you have the most expensive players (Suarez, Aguero) as captain choices and then distribute the cash among the rest so that you maximize expected value but make sure you spend your cash in a way so that you have three very cheap players that can fill your bench. Goalkeepers: If the precision in points predictions is high enough, you want to have two rotating goalkeepers (which then need to be cheap, since half of the cash invested sits on the bench every week), if points prediction is too low you would go with e.g. Hart and Speroni, since GK offer great value per invested pound.

Best regards,

Bill