As the season ticks on, we're starting to get a bit of data to work with, albeit sometimes in small samples. This season I am not working with a relatively complex player model but am really interested in trying to "play the fixtures" as much as I can. A couple of sources of frustration, therefore, have been as below: 1. Sites which provide the difficulty of fixtures often seem a bit simplistic. For example, the Premier League site shows Wolves as an average "3-rated" opponent, both at home and away yet the reality is more complicated. While at home they have been very solid defensively, with an Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) of just 4.71 in five games, which ranks third best, yet on their travels they have surrendered 7.94 xGC, which is the third worst . Even more confusing is that most sites ( though not all ) don't distinguish between attacking and defensive fixtures, so facing Leeds at home is presented as an easy "2-rated" fixture when in reali
Comments
Regards,
Sepak Bola
Just wanted you to know that you have an avid follower that follows your blog and uses your Projections for his own analysis blog :)
DO hope that you keep up the effort until the end of the season, your data and efforts have been ABSOLUTELY INVALUABLE.
Hope you have a good week and that work eases up, take care.
Lucien
Really miss your detailed write ups and analysis. The numbers are good, but not nearly as valuable as your insight.
Steve