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It's been a busy couple of months for me which has unfortunately meant that posts around these parts have been minimal and basically limited to weekly stat updates. Hopefully my proverbial calender is now a bit clearer so for the first time we can get back to actually providing some analysis. I'm going to start with a quick one - just something that came together while looking at some other data. I've calculated the expected goals (xG) for every player in the league (regressed using league conversion rates) for the first 19 weeks of the season and then the gameweeks since. I'm not generally a fan of arbitrary cut off points but the one advantage of using the 19 game mark is that, generally, this will mean that each team has played each other once. Individual circumstances may apply to specific players (such as a change in club, or change in position) but as a general point I believe the 19:19 split is useful. With that then, here's the data plotting players...

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Arsenal Szczesny, Sagna, Mertesacker, Jenkinson, Monreal, Arteta, Wilshere, Ramsey, Walcott, Giroud, Cazorla.  Subs: Mannone, Diaby, Rosicky, Podolski, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Miquel. Podolski was a surprise ommission here, though that one would appear to be an issue of fitness rather than form. Whether or not the German represents good value for money when in the side is another issue, though I do believe he'll be back there soon. Walcott was once again pushed back out wide, though again he was able to enjoy a good statistical game (including five total shots, four SiB) so there's little reason to downgrade the winger based on Giroud's inclusion this week. The deployment at centre back and subsequent dismissal of Jenkinson is a concern in that the team would obviously be weakened with Miquel playing regularly, but Vermaelen and Koscielny both appear to have a chance at making the team next week so owners of Sagna et al shouldn't panic yet, particularly with that promi...

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Powered by Tableau As in prior weeks, each player is assigned a 'buy', 'hold/monitor' or 'sell' status. These do not necessarily reflect what I would personally do, rather what I suggest to be a decision based in logic. For example, I might feel that Rooney represents better value than van Persie, but I would still 'buy' the Dutchman's success and consider him very ownable. The different assigned statuses are summarised as:  Buy  - the player can be purchased immediately taking consideration of his playing time, fixtures, injury status etc. This status does not necessarily mean you should buy him now as it depends who else you own, only that it is reasonable to do so.  Hold, and/or monitor  - if you own the player you're not in a rush to sell him but there's sufficient risk here to justify potential buyers holding off.  Sell  - the player has too many risks and should either be sold or not purchased. This does not mean he might n...

It's been a busy couple of weeks for me personally with non-blog commitments but hopefully we can get back to normal now, starting with this week's lineup lessons. Saying that, with the transfer window now behind us and teams coming into the home straight, we're seeing less changes of note within the key lineups so these updates may move to fortnightly, allowing room to focus on other niche matters like double gameweeks or short term fixtures. Arsenal Szczesny, Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Monreal, Diaby, Arteta, Wilshere, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Walcott, Giroud Subs: Mannone, Rosicky, Podolski, Andre Santos, Ramsey, Cazorla, Jenkinson Monreal arrived at the end of the transfer window and came straight in here for the injured Gibbs, looking very accomplished in doing so. At 5.5m though, we didn't see a great deal to suggest he's worth 0.4m more than Sagna, unless you believe Jenkinson offers a genuine threat to the Frenchman's playing time (I don...