Gameweek 16 Preview
Attacking Rankings
Clean Sheet Rankings
Individual Rankings
A couple of quick notes on player rankings which will likely cause some consternation:
A couple of quick notes on player rankings which will likely cause some consternation:
- At City, United are forecast to register just six SiB which gives van Persie a couple, based on his 36% share to date. On those numbers the model just isn't going to forecast big returns for the Dutchman this week.
- Ba's ranking over Berbatov looks a bit odd given that you would fancy the home team in the contest, but the ranking accounts for each player's share of their team's shots to date, and Ba simply dominates in that metric (53% SiB vs 26% for Berbatov). Berbatov's assist potential makes it close and the risk that Ba doesn't play would likely make me pick the Bulgarian here, but the model doesn't account for injuries.
- The Reading players get the edge of Sunderland due to the other game, as while the model likes the extra fixture to be fairly close, it favours Reading against Southampton rather than Sunderland against Chelsea.
Comments
Brilliant work BTW.
Many plan to pick him this week due to a lack of obvious choices (including me) but this is really putting me off.
Berbatov is my VC but I just can't justify captaining him given his/Fulham's form of late, arguably in part due to the ongoing absence of Ruiz.
Thoughts on who you'd pick outside of the DGW players?
In home games he has accounted for 20% of Swansea's SiB, and despite their perceived 'hot form' they've managed just 7, 4, 9 and 9 SiB in the last four home games, so we can immediately see that Michu is unlikely to enjoy a day filled will scores of chances.
If you believe he can continue to hit the target at a 48% rate (unlikely, but possible) and that those shots will continue to be converted into goals at a 53% rate (almost impossible) then there's reason to be very optimistic. However, my model is based on likelihood of success and thus while Michu remains a tremendous pickup at 7.8m, it's impossible to say his current conversion rates are sustainable without basically making the statement that he is literally one of the best players in history.
If you don't like any other options (which is reasonable given the lack of options this week) I'd be okay captaining Michu, but you do so betting against the kind of regression which has come for all but the very best players in the league, and even them when it comes to goals per SoT.
Try plugging your team into http://fantasyoverlord.com and see what transfers it recommends
This feature of yours on Thursdays is absolutely my go-to post before selecting my team for the weekend. Great stuff, thanks.
2) Michu does it again...Cisse of last year is the best comparison by far