As the season ticks on, we're starting to get a bit of data to work with, albeit sometimes in small samples. This season I am not working with a relatively complex player model but am really interested in trying to "play the fixtures" as much as I can. A couple of sources of frustration, therefore, have been as below: 1. Sites which provide the difficulty of fixtures often seem a bit simplistic. For example, the Premier League site shows Wolves as an average "3-rated" opponent, both at home and away yet the reality is more complicated. While at home they have been very solid defensively, with an Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) of just 4.71 in five games, which ranks third best, yet on their travels they have surrendered 7.94 xGC, which is the third worst . Even more confusing is that most sites ( though not all ) don't distinguish between attacking and defensive fixtures, so facing Leeds at home is presented as an easy "2-rated" fixture when in reali
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My system is to support players who have both the ability AND the underlying stats, like the Southampton midfield to date, and then adjust for fixtures as needed.
For example, Sessegnon has hit the target 6 times versus Puncheon's 10 and Nolan's 13. Larsson and Johnson have 16 and 15 chances created each, but that still trails Sterling (23) and Lallana (25) by a way.
As I've said in the past few lineup lessons, they're talented enough to monitor but I don't see enough to make them great buys yet.
1) with Norwich keeper Ruddy out for up to 3 months, what do you think his backup's chances are? The name's Bunn.
2) have you ever seen a player score across 4 categories? Gareth Bale did today -- 1 goal, 1 assist, 1 yellow, 1 own goal.
I can't believe all of the DGW-chasers out there (at FFS and FFC). Even if Sunderland and Reading players did turn into princes when you kiss them, they still cost 1 transfer coming and 1 transfer going. No, thanks.
Fantastic blog. I may not comment as much as i did last season, but I check in multiple times daily. One of my favorite bookmarks -- keep it up!
Piper
www.trendone.net
www.joeydavila.net