Friday, October 26, 2012

Medium Term Goal Forecast

The mechanics of the new model were expanded on here, so check that out specific questions on how the below forecasts differ from the old goals based system (clue: the differences are varied and significant!). While the weekly forecast is more related to line-up decisions, the below chart should hopefully help with transfer decisions and longer term planning.

Attacking Forecast

Defensive Forecast
Weekly Forecast Predicted goals per game scored for the next eight gameweeks, based on shot data and team conversion rates
Avg Average goals per game forecast for the next eight gameweeks
Gr The percentage of 'green light' games over the next eight gameweeks, currently defined as a forecast goal tally equal or greater than two for attacking sides and less than one for defensive teams.
Am The percentage of 'amber' games over the next eight gameweeks, currently defined as a forecast goal tally between 1 and 2.
Rd The percentage of 'red light' games over the next eight gameweeks, currently defined as a forecast goal tally less than or equal to 1 for attacking teams or more than two for defensive teams.

6 comments:

Alex & Samantha Barrett said...

Thanks, you're blog is helpful and insightful...any captain data this week?

thebingster said...

Interesting post, thanks.
Are the green and red the wrong way round on the Defensive chart?

JT said...

as thebingster pointed out, the colours are wrong on the defensive chart. For example, Stoke's rating of 0.6 for the Sunderland game should obviously be green!

Mitchell Stirling said...

Chris, following on from your Money ball piece and this I have swapped A Cole and Suarez for Shawcross and Aguero. It seems the next logical step may be Lambert and Aguero out for Pogrebynak and Van Persie as I have no Man U players currently.

Pog also works well for me as I have Nolan, Bale, Carzola, Pienaar and Ben Arfa in midfield.

Charl Du Plessis said...

Okay, so I want to ask this in general.. so anyone with an opinion - fire away! I'd like to do any changes asap as price rises are imminent.

I had RVP for 3-4 weeks or so and then about 3 weeks back I took him out and put Aguero in instead.

Now it seems like it might have been a mistake. I've currently got £1.4 in the bank. I've got Cazorla and Bale in midfield. Would like to keep both, but I'm wondering whether to swap Cazorla + Aguero for something like RVP + Michu (I'd still have £1 left, but I don't see a much better alternative than Michu for £8 and under).

Is this a good move? RVP scoring seems inevitable and the situation at City is always an issue (even though I still like Aguero as a fantasy asset). It's going to suck if Arsenal get back up on their feet and Cazorla's great stats (chances created) start generating points, but it might be worth the gamble on RVP?

Charl Du Plessis said...
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