Thursday, May 10, 2012

Gameweek 38 Preview



CS Clean sheets kept at home/away based on this week's fixture Opp FTS Number of times this week's opponent has failed to score at home/away GPG Conceded Predicted goals conceded this week based on a team and their opponent's performance this season Opp CS Clean sheets kept at home/away by a team's opponent GPG Scored Predicted goals scored this week based on a team and their opponent's performance this season.

Here we are again. The end of another long season. Well, of course, there is still the small matter of deciding whether the Premier League trophy will reside in Manchester or Salford for the next 4 months or so, but for fantasy players, this is the end. The last transfer will be made soon or already has been and that final lineup will be set in a matter of days. Then it's time to sit back, watch your team complete the final moments of the year and reflect on all those missed transfers and botched double gameweeks.

There's some interesting storylines for the final day which may impact fantasy players, though in truth too much is probably made of team's "having their head on the beach" already as that narrative only ever seems to be applied retrospectively to teams who had a bad final game. Take Blackburn for example. I can write the story for the Lancashire papers now. If they lose, you couldn't blame the relegated players for being unmotivated as they face a season of trips to Peterbrough or Bristol City rather than Man United and Arsenal. If however Blackburn should win, they'll have done so as "brave soldiers" keeping their heads high as they show that they'll be back soon. In short, you can apply a narrative either way. The team hasn't been very good all season and chances are they won't suddenly be any different this week.

It's an understatement to say that Man City still have something to play for, with just their first title for over 40 years on the line. Again, after the results come in there will be plenty of people who "knew" what was going to happen but in reality there's a non-zero chance they blow the game or destroy QPR with the most common outcome being a solid win given the gulf in talent. Both teams need to win (assuming United don't slip up) so I'm comfortable with the data here and suggest City look like the best play of the week.

Now, one team who should be considered outside of their yearly stats is Chelsea, who have the Champions League final on the horizon. With a top-four position now out of their hands, they have nothing to play for this week and widespread changes could be seen as Di Matteo can't afford any more absentees given the list of injured and suspended players he has for the final. I don't believe many of their assets are widely held anyway, but despite the great fixture, the uncertainty over who will play is enough to make me look elsewhere for the week.

Captain data to follow later.

7 comments:

Genevapics said...

Chris:

I just wanted to say that it has been a pleasure reading the Premier League Fantasy Football Blog each and every week. Discovering your site has added much joy and excitement to my FPL experience. Keep up the good work and I look forward to reading you here and over at The Scout next season.

Cheers

amtosh said...

I second the above comment. Cheers Chris.

First in my mini-league by a good 120 points, so (barring catastrophe) it should be a procession towards victory this week.

Your blog helped win my money, cheers mate.

thebingster said...

+1

Your blog has been invaluable this season - I've relied on it every week when choosing my transfers and line-ups, and it's led to my best fantasy season ever, currently top of my mini-league and in line for a payday if I can negotiate the final set of fixtures successfully.

Cheers for your dedication and insight and keep up the good work Chris.

CDI said...

Amazing blog Chris. Thanks for answering so many questions over the season. I'm ahead in most my of my mini leagues and in the top 4 in your league and its partially down to all the info you provided.

Why did you move from Bolton to Canada? Do you miss the UK and being able to watch most of the games on Sky sports? Do you think bolton can avoid the drop?

stooshermadness said...

Chris - great blog. The one "can't miss" view to prepare for each GW. Sitting 60+ points on top of my minileague and ~5000 in the world. A lot of that is down to you. Invaluable blog in terms of setting up my squad each week. Thanks.

Looking forward to your captain's data. I am leaning to riding it out with RvP(c) since I can't get Aguero w/o a hit.

Ramya Haider said...

It has been a pleasure reading the Premier League Fantasy Football Blog each and every week. Discovering your site has added much joy and excitement to my FPL experience. Keep up the good work and I look forward to reading you here and over at The Scout next season.

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Nobanno said...

After all of these busy weeks I feel i am not in a good position. FPL is now so big and exciting. Numerous websites compete for the attention of millions who play fantasy sports. free fantasy football is getting more popularity.