Thursday, April 19, 2012

Double vision: A look ahead to Gameweek 36



CS Clean sheets kept at home/away based on this week's fixture Opp FTS Number of times this week's opponent has failed to score at home/away GPG Conceded Predicted goals conceded this week based on a team and their opponent's performance this season Opp CS Clean sheets kept at home/away by a team's opponent GPG Scored Predicted goals scored this week based on a team and their opponent's performance this season

So what does this mean for individual players? Let's look at how the data suggests the fantasy stars will do from here on in: Each bar represents the players' xPct over the final four gameweeks.



I won't get into particulars of captain picks etc now as that's something for next week, but the above will hopefully give some initial guidance when making any transfers this week. I'll add some of my thoughts tomorrow.

5 comments:

Bitzoboard said...

Hi Chris,

Love the look of the 4-weeks xPct chart, and wonder whether the recently popular HBA could be in the chart if his first half of the season playtime was not limited.

By the way, saw a mistake in the first 2 tables; Arsenal is playing Stoke isnit?

Steve said...

I love the graphics for upcoming player ratings!

Cisse looks to be at the moment in the same place that Sigurdsson was a few weeks ago in terms of ratings/predictions - if the season wasn't about to end you would expect his stats to drop soon.

For what it's worth, here are my player ratings for the rest of the season. They are worked out in a not dissimilar way from Chris', although obviously not quite the same:-

name pred_pts price minutes
Cisse 39.29 7.8 678
Dempsey 34.28 9.4 2964
Lampard 32.15 11.0 2145
Aguero 31.61 11.1 2216
Ben Arfa 30.66 6.0 1145
Van der Vaart 30.43 9.5 1912
Mata 28.64 9.5 2388
Baines 28.17 7.9 2880
Jelavic 27.55 5.8 512
Sigurdsson 27.41 5.7 1138
Eagles 26.74 5.1 1801
Sturridge 26.35 6.6 1869
Petrov 26.21 5.1 2036
Pienaar 26.04 7.0 811
Gerrard 26.02 9.5 1134
Crouch 25.88 6.2 2348
Ba 24.99 7.1 2289
Cahill 24.69 5.5 2402
Suarez 24.5 9.2 2190
Adebayor 24.24 9.1 2467
Miyaichi 24.24 4.9 539
Dzeko 23.87 7.8 1466
Van Persie 23.49 13.5 2971

(Apologies if the formatting looks aweful!)

@Blitzoboard as you can see, HBA comes out quite well in those. Obviously the ratings for those with more minutes are less suspect.

I'm planning to take a couple of hits to get in DGW players (probably Dempsey in for 35), as I am going for the highest possible ranking and willing to take a punt for some explosive potential..

Chris Glover said...

Thanks bitzoboard, Arsenal should now be updated - not sure how that one slipped through.

amtosh said...

Worth putting the armband on Petrov this week?

Or leave it with Aguero.

Or Dempsey.

Thoughts?

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