CS Clean sheets kept at home/away based on this week's fixture Opp FTS Number of times this week's opponent has failed to score at home/away GPG Conceded Predicted goals conceded this week based on a team and their opponent's performance this season Opp CS Clean sheets kept at home/away by a team's opponent GPG Scored Predicted goals scored this week based on a team and their opponent's performance this season
So what does this mean for individual players? Let's look at how the data suggests the fantasy stars will do from here on in: Each bar represents the players' xPct over the final four gameweeks.
I won't get into particulars of captain picks etc now as that's something for next week, but the above will hopefully give some initial guidance when making any transfers this week. I'll add some of my thoughts tomorrow.
Love the look of the 4-weeks xPct chart, and wonder whether the recently popular HBA could be in the chart if his first half of the season playtime was not limited.
By the way, saw a mistake in the first 2 tables; Arsenal is playing Stoke isnit?
Cisse looks to be at the moment in the same place that Sigurdsson was a few weeks ago in terms of ratings/predictions - if the season wasn't about to end you would expect his stats to drop soon.
For what it's worth, here are my player ratings for the rest of the season. They are worked out in a not dissimilar way from Chris', although obviously not quite the same:-
@Blitzoboard as you can see, HBA comes out quite well in those. Obviously the ratings for those with more minutes are less suspect.
I'm planning to take a couple of hits to get in DGW players (probably Dempsey in for 35), as I am going for the highest possible ranking and willing to take a punt for some explosive potential..
Powered by Tableau The above visualisation is going to form the centrepiece for a new regular post (probably bi-weekly) which is kind of the opposite of the fanning the flames piece. Rather than focus on players who did well this week, we're going to look at players who didn't, and particularly those who haven't for a number of weeks and identify whether, yes you guessed it, the panic button should be pushed. Before we get into specific players, a quick review of what the table above shows: Goals xG - This is the expected goals a player should have scored in a given week based on the number of shots he took (inside/outside the box), his historic skill level regarding hitting the target and the league average rate of converting shots on target (SoT) to goals. This metric gives an overview of the chances a player is receiving, along with the quality of them and the way he is converting them. Pts - simply the points scored by the player over the last five g...
Happy holidays everyone; it's been a while. For those not on Twitter, I was away in Costa Rica over the break without much - if any - internet access hence the lack of posts around these electronic pages. Well, actually, that's only the main reason, not the only one. In truth I've become a bit disillusioned with the fantasy game the past couple of months, partly due to my other commitments which make copying data at 2am somewhat less appealing, partly due to a lack of excitement in this year's game and finally due to the constant frustration I have with today's internet culture. This blog is a labour of love and aside from the small amount of money I made from the pre-season guide many of you graciously purchased, I don't get much out of this beyond the enjoyment of interacting with readers and hopefully helping a few of you to gain a couple of extra fantasy points every now and then. While some of that enjoyment remains, I feel it has waned over time and th...
I try not to get involved in too much "will-he-won't-he" speculation in these pages with, for example, the weekly statistical rankings being provided regardless of rotation risk. I'm not saying, of course, that this shouldn't be a factor, only that I'm in no position to offer a worthwhile opinion, other than collating other news stories (which are often based on nonsense quotes from managers anyway). There are plenty of other sites who offer opinions on whether Tevez will play or if Vidic has recovered from injury but in almost all cases it's pure guess work and so I try and stay away from such discussions. With that in mind, my initial reaction to Ba's move was negative. I have no idea whether he will play every week at Chelsea, and while you'd think it would extremely odd for a player to leave a good team to go and ride the bench, other players have done the exact same thing before. All I therefore see is a player who has gone from being the e...
Comments
Love the look of the 4-weeks xPct chart, and wonder whether the recently popular HBA could be in the chart if his first half of the season playtime was not limited.
By the way, saw a mistake in the first 2 tables; Arsenal is playing Stoke isnit?
Cisse looks to be at the moment in the same place that Sigurdsson was a few weeks ago in terms of ratings/predictions - if the season wasn't about to end you would expect his stats to drop soon.
For what it's worth, here are my player ratings for the rest of the season. They are worked out in a not dissimilar way from Chris', although obviously not quite the same:-
name pred_pts price minutes
Cisse 39.29 7.8 678
Dempsey 34.28 9.4 2964
Lampard 32.15 11.0 2145
Aguero 31.61 11.1 2216
Ben Arfa 30.66 6.0 1145
Van der Vaart 30.43 9.5 1912
Mata 28.64 9.5 2388
Baines 28.17 7.9 2880
Jelavic 27.55 5.8 512
Sigurdsson 27.41 5.7 1138
Eagles 26.74 5.1 1801
Sturridge 26.35 6.6 1869
Petrov 26.21 5.1 2036
Pienaar 26.04 7.0 811
Gerrard 26.02 9.5 1134
Crouch 25.88 6.2 2348
Ba 24.99 7.1 2289
Cahill 24.69 5.5 2402
Suarez 24.5 9.2 2190
Adebayor 24.24 9.1 2467
Miyaichi 24.24 4.9 539
Dzeko 23.87 7.8 1466
Van Persie 23.49 13.5 2971
(Apologies if the formatting looks aweful!)
@Blitzoboard as you can see, HBA comes out quite well in those. Obviously the ratings for those with more minutes are less suspect.
I'm planning to take a couple of hits to get in DGW players (probably Dempsey in for 35), as I am going for the highest possible ranking and willing to take a punt for some explosive potential..
Or leave it with Aguero.
Or Dempsey.
Thoughts?