Expected goals plus-minus
As the season ticks on, we're starting to get a bit of data to work with, albeit sometimes in small samples. This season I am not working with a relatively complex player model but am really interested in trying to "play the fixtures" as much as I can. A couple of sources of frustration, therefore, have been as below: 1. Sites which provide the difficulty of fixtures often seem a bit simplistic. For example, the Premier League site shows Wolves as an average "3-rated" opponent, both at home and away yet the reality is more complicated. While at home they have been very solid defensively, with an Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) of just 4.71 in five games, which ranks third best, yet on their travels they have surrendered 7.94 xGC, which is the third worst . Even more confusing is that most sites ( though not all ) don't distinguish between attacking and defensive fixtures, so facing Leeds at home is presented as an easy "2-rated" fixture when in reali
Comments
My captain choices going into this week were Aguero, Dempsey, and Ba. I gave Silva and RVP consideration, but I'm a little worried about RVP's knock. I've decided to go Aguero C and Dempsey VC.
I'm concerned that Balotelli may start stealing most of Aguero's thunder, at least in the scoring department so ill be watching the game and if that indeed is the case, ill most likely transfer in Balotelli or Suarez for the stretch run with some thought on Rooney but he's been hit or miss.
My team this week, thoughts
Vorm
Kompany, R Taylor, N Taylor
Sessegnon, Dempsey (A), Silva, Bale
RVP, Ba, Aguero (C)
Subs - Sigurdsson, J Evans, Tourney, Mignolet
Good work Skehoe, Dempsey as captain would've got you a few points!
My team at the moment:
Vorm | Mignolet
Kompany | Simpson | Enrique | J Evans | G. Kelly
Bale | Silva | Dempsey | Sessegnon | Surman
RVP | Aguero | Ba
I'm thinking:
A)Sess and Aguero -> Rooney and McLean
B)Sess and Aguero -> Rooney and Danny Murphy
C)Sess and Ba -> McLean and Suarez
Whaddya reckon?
I like your c option, but that might be because I went for broke after seeing Sessegnon out until late this month and transfered Suarez in myself.
I'm taking an 8 pt hit, but worth it imo.
I did
Aguero>Suarez
Sessegnon>Miyauchi (sp?)
Tourney>Jose Enrique
A cs or decent performance by Suarez in the dgw should make up for the 8 pts (hopefully), but if not at least my D is set for season.
I also figured Sess is going to drop in value quick and no reason to have $7 mf just sitting for month.
Best of luck
I'm in the final of an FA cup style comp in my minileague this week (been running for 3 weeks) so I need all the points I can get this week.
My team:
Mignolet (Vorm)
Evans | Enrique | Kompany (Kelly, Simpson)
Bale | Dempsey | Adam (vc) | Silva (Surman)
Ba | Suarez (c) | RVP
Come on Suarez!!!! Score some goals!
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