Friday, December 16, 2011

Gameweek 16 Reader Questions

@thatbensonguy I have 1.1m, looking to upgrade a DEF (probly Ass-Ek > Kompany) or MID, I have Brunt (5.8). What's the better move?
Spurs defensive prospects looks pretty sound over the coming weeks including 5 home games in the next 7 GWs (including the double gameweek). While I still have faith in City's defensive unit too, I would not be ditching Assou Ekotto at this point, and in fact rate him as one the better players to target. Brunt has been a huge disappointment and there is a real lack of talent in that WBA side. For 6.9m your options a bit limited. I guess I still like Ramsey and Walters but I'm not sure either are worth 2.0m more than the group of players on offer in that 4.5-5m range. If you can use the money elsewhere I'd go cheap, if not then I'd look at the aforementioned pair or perhaps Cabaye.

@Yitzeroo With newcastles defence on the down should I play Simpson this week, or have Morison up front? Will Norwich carry on scoring?
That's a tough call. The stats say go with Simpson but of course they don't account for S Taylor not being there. Swansea don't travel too well which is a boost for Simpson and Everton have been fairly stingy at home so I'd give the nod to Simpson for this week.

@Dafyddth I'm looking to play 3 from Enrique, Ekotto, Evans, Jones, Kompany in gameweek 16. Any ideas
Assou Ekotto is a definite play, and I think it's tough to drop Jones at the moment. Enrique has the toughest game on paper and probably misses out. You're then left with doubling down on United on the road or sticking with Kompany despite City's struggles. It's a really tough call but I think I might go with Evans and drop Kompany, which seemed unthinkable a few weeks back. City have scored 15 goals in their last 4 home games but failed to keep a clean sheet in any of those games. With Van Persie and co in decent form you fancy Arsenal to get a goal there while QPR may just buckle against United.

@NeilArrow A dumb reader question, from someone who hasn't been paying enough attention. What do you mean by "upside"?
There are no dumb questions here. And if there are, they're probably being asked by me! I use upside in two ways. Long term I mean that a player has sufficient talent to be good if the situation works out well for him (he gets more minutes, stays fit etc). More often though I mean in a given gameweek. Yaya Youre is a good fantasy player but his upside is limited in that he's unlikely to ever go off for a hattrick or 2 goals, 2 assists and 3 bonus points. Instead he just chips away with 4-7 points every week. Compare that to someone like Bale who already has 5 double digit games but also a high number of 2 pointers to his name this year. He has better upside but is way more boom/bust than Yaya. If you can find a player with consistency and upside, they tend to cost a lot of your budget.

Rohit Chochattu I'm taking my wildcard this week. Is this team good? Stockdale; Walker, Enrique, Evans; Johnson(Norwich), Bale, Nani, Mata; Sturridge(C), RVP(VC), Ba. Subs : Vorm, Vermaelen, Gower, Taylor.
The team looks great. As you may know, I don't really like expensive defenders so I probably wouldn't pickup Vermaelen though with so few midfield options, there is a better argument this year to own one and at least he does have a history of high production rather than just one season. I might also consider Assou Ekotto over Walker to save 0.5m as this might give you more flexibility if you want to shift Johnson or Gower around in the future. Other than those minor points though it looks great - I like it better than my team!

Vanilla At what point is 4pts worth saving 0.2M in budget? For example, assuming the worst-case, Schwarzer's value dips 0.1m this week, before a manager is due the next week's free transfer, and any of his worthy replacements would go +0.1m)
This is a really good question and one I feel like should be answerable with data but I'm not sure how to approach it. From my own strategy (not really based on facts) I would pay the fee if I had literally no flexibility in my budget and needed to make the move now. For example, I own Vorm and Schwarzer (at 5.0m) so if the only replacement option I liked cost 5.1m and I had 0.1m in the bank and I felt Schwarzer's value might fall, it might be worth paying the points, given that I really don't want to play Vorm this week. If I think he will concede twice he may only get 1 or 2 points and thus and thus the new keeper would only need a clean sheet to break even plus the fact that if I don't make the move now I won't be able to do so next week either. Other than that I'd still be reluctant to make the move as I'm not sure 0.1m or 0.2m here and there is going to make a huge difference (especially given that the free wildcard period is coming up).

Gummi What about going for Moreira (3.9, Vorm's replacement) and gambling on Vorm's ability to get points from saves on the road?
I get that you want to save cash but I'd prefer to get at least a warm body who can fill a role if you need him too. I'd therefore throw Ruddy or Cerny out there before I picked a bench player. I would still actually go with a ~4.5m guy.

Davefevs Vorm looks a very fine keeper, irrespective of fantasy football. Wonder if any big teams will look to make Swansea an offer in January?
If he arrived a year ago I would have pencilled him in for a move to United or Arsenal. However, despite what some think I think De Gea is locked into that United side for a while and Szczesny has shown enough to continue Wenger's trend of not spending big on a keeper. If Swansea were to go down he would almost certainly leave, possibly to another PL team, but if not I'm not sure how many teams want a keeper that would represent a huge upgrade from Swansea. Spurs maybe? It makes you wonder what Premier League scouting departments do all year really. It's not like Swansea plucked him from the Mongolian third division. I would think that keepers are one of the most translatable positions in that a good keeper in one league will, generally, be good in another. Strange that he never got a look from the likes of Arsenal who've needed a keeper for approximately 17 years.

Ratchet I would like to know which team has the least number of players that can be relied up for goals. Eg. Aresenal = Van Persie only whereas Spurs have 3 main goal threats.
Good question, and it ties into something I was thinking of posting: the percentage of team goals each player is involved is. It would be useful to know that, using fake numbers, Clint Dempsey scores or assists 45% of Fulham goals and thus may actually have more value than in a given week where Fulham are predicted to score twice, than David Silva, who accounts for 20% of City's goals might where City are predicted to score 3. I don't have this data yet, but I do plan to get it onto the site soon.

Ali Dia I love your blog! Need your input on this. I am undecided on who to captain this week among Mata, RVP, Rooney, Silva, Bale and even maybe Yakubu in a Blackburn side who score goals up against an obliging defence like West Brom..who knows what might happen. I also need to decide on who to start between Simpson or Brunt who has been a massive disappointment this season. Thanks!
Thanks Ali! To get onto my captain list you need to show consistent production and thus Yakubu is immediately out. I tend to lean on players at home all else being equal and that would point towards Silva. Van Persie is obviously in tremendous form but City away is pretty much as tough as it gets and his upside is surely limited. Bale also has a home game but he is so unpredictable that I'm a bit scared of captaining him. I would go with Silva based on his consistency and/upside potential.

Grounderz I can't decide who to start between Krul for Newcastle United (home) and Vorm for Swansea City (away) this weekend.
Despite the absence of S Taylor and possibly Colocinni, I would still go with Newcastle here. Swansea don't travel too well and Newcastle have a pretty potent attack at home.

Kavet Kerek What would you say to Demba Ba this week as a captain? Unless I'm blind I think I missed him and I'm wondering if he would be a better option than Silva. Silva is definitely consistent when it comes to grabbing points but due to the variety of sources that city scores goals he never seems like he can truly be relied on for a score along the lines of a brace. Thanks!
A couple of people mentioned Ba and it was definitely an oversight on my behalf. That said, his production is still pretty up and down and he's been a little bit boom or bust this year. There is certainly an argument to captaining him this week but I would still go for the proven consistency producer who can then also hit the highs fairly often. I'd probably slot Ba in after Aguero and Silva and possibly Van Persie but ahead of the rest of the group.

Vanilla What do you think of Landon Donovan joining Everton for 2mos in January? He was a firecracker during his last loan spell there.
I'm excited for Donovan in that (a) he's a good player and (b) he might reinvigorate this Everton side who is not without talent but has been pretty miserable this year. He should also provide another mid range option in that ~7.0m range providing the market makers don't go overboard with his price tag.

Cantona 808 First up, excellent blog Chris. Great to read an intelligent approach to Fantasy Football. Secondly, why don't you just consult the spread betting firms for accurate expectations of each team's goals. I think you'll find they're on the whole accurate or these firms wouldn't be in business. I'm talking about Sporting Index for example.
Thanks! I have thought about looking at betting sites before but the problem is that at the end of the day they are trying to make a market rather than predict what exactly will happen. The way the public bets therefore plays a bit part and so totals for 'public' teams are always going to be inflated. Fans of the NFL will know, for example, that public teams like Green Bay or Dallas (or the Pats of late) will always get inflated spreads as the public want to bet on glamorous teams. The same will be true in the Premier League in that people want to bet on Man Utd scoring a lot of goals. No one wants to take the under of bet that Swansea will score over/under 0.92 goals. There will be some value there for sure but I just worry that by using them I cloud the raw factual data with the bookies' view on how the market views teams.

WS For captain this week, Sturridge or Adebayor?
Of those two I like Adebayor. Chelsea have a slightly better fixture but Ade gets the penalty duties and Spurs are generally pretty good at home. Sunderland have been okay of late but I don't see a sudden and miraculous turnaround under O'Neil and they kind of quality at the back (particularly full back) to keep Spurs out all day.

As always, thanks for the questions and I hope the answers at least gave you some direction if not a direct answer. Good luck for the week ahead!

2 comments:

Matt said...

Hi Chris, looking at the stats for the past few weeks Edin Dzeko has just not been given the gametime but when he has played for longer periods or full games, he has racked up some respectable points, do you think it is time to move on from him because of this constant rotation? I am reluctant to do so because of the upside we saw earlier but this weekend saw another 1 pointer, and I can't see much changing unless balotelli or aguero get injured...

thanks in advance! cheers for the blog, great stuff

Davefevs said...

For Man City, it is almost as if you need to select Balotelli, Dzeko and Aguero each week and then perm 2 from 3. An expensive way to play it, I guess.