Reader Questions
mustardking - I have to quibble with your explanation of regression to the mean, however. it does not mean that players who are underperforming will have final numbers in line with their talent level - it means that they should hit their natural talent level going forward. So if van persie usually scores once per match but doesn't score at all in the first two matches, it doesn't mean that he is more likely to score twice in upcoming matches. it means that he is likely to average one goal per match in the upcoming matches.
You're absolutely right and explained it much better than I did. I find it easier to explain in baseball where we have averages rather than soccer/football where the stats tend to all be counting stats (number of goals scored, assisted etc). I think the analysis still kind of holds up in that a player like Gyan is unlikely to continue to take 10 shots a game and not his the back of the net, but you're right that he won't suddenly score every 2 shots to make up for this shortfall. What I really need to do is find out every players shots per goal ratio and then see who is under-performing their historical rate this year. Perhaps that can be be a project over the long weekend. Thanks for the post, I really should have done better here.
Daniel Brian - Long, Yaya Toure or Whelan and Suarez
I would suggest that Yaya looks a little overpriced now with the arrival of Nasri and Aguero as he will often be forced back into the two 'defensive' position in the 4-2-3-1, pushing his scoring more into the Barry range (~100 points). I'll assume you had around 14.0m which gives you 5.3m if you go with Suarez. In that range I still like Moses (5.0m) and if you want to go even cheaper I think Dyer (4.5m) has some value when the fixture is right. I'd take both of these players over Whelan at the moment.
amtosh - When can we expect that post about wildcards and is there a previous one you've done which is pretty current? I'm considering whether or not to play mine this week and replace Torres with Rooney, Bent with Dzeko, Silva with Yaya Toure and Ben Watson with Arteta as well as finding a good replacement for Senderos. I stand to lose 12 points or use my WC.
There are a few general thoughts from this post last year, but I'm not sure it'll tell you more than you already know. Obviously you'd like to delay using the wildcard as long as possible, but given that you can use another in GW20-23 it is far from a disaster to use it now. My main advice I'd have (and I'll try and expand on this this week) is not to chase points by picking 'form' players or players who have a great matchup this week. Remember that you need to stick with this lineup for 16 gameweeks save for your weekly freebie.
Specifically on the players you mention, I would do Rooney for Torres is a second, and Bent to Dzeko also makes sense (even if I am still scared of rotation). I think Yaya's value has declined with Nasri's arrival, though you could argue Silva's has too (see answer below). I like Arteta at Arsenal but I'd like to see how many set pieces he gets before buying. I'm not sure you need to play your wildcard to be honest though I can see the attraction of grabbing Dzeko for this week's Wigan game. The cautious side of me would suggest bringing in Rooney now and then ditching Bent or Silva next week.
stooshermadness - I'm not sure I agree with your analysis of Bendtner as a prospect after transfer. In the 2 years he actually got decent minutes, he scored 9 goals in what was effectively 19 games and in the other he scored 6 goals in what was effectively 13/14 games. And he was often pushed out on the right wing, obviously not his best position. I think with a run of, say, 2700 minutes at Sunderland, the numbers suggest 12-14 goals, certainly in Fletcher or Rodellega ballpark
Good analysis, and I can't argue with any of those facts. However, my main issues with Bendtner are when he has scored, and who helped him score, those goals. I haven't been through his complete history but from memory and via quick scan of his goal history, many of his goals have come from either sub appearances or late strikes in garbage time. Of course, they all count but I wonder if some of his goals are a product of the sheer number of chances Arsenal create rather than his particular talent.
He had a nice run in 09/10 where he scored 5 goals in 8 games but outside of that he's rarely shown that he is a natural goalscorer. I actually think he's a decent player and was probably hard done by at Arsenal, but he was far from prolific when playing with Fabregas, Nasri, Van Persie etc so how will he fare with Colback, Cattermole, Larsson and Gyan playing him in? If he was 5.5m I might be interested but there is a premium baked into that 6.5m tag based on the fact that if he got the chance to play at Arsenal he would have been doing so with an elite crop of player (you know, before they sold them all).
Finally, of the 11 players to score 13 or more goals last year, only OdemwingieBendtner is in the same class as Odemwingie or Bent (Campbell is the outlier here and the reason why you could be right). For me, Bendtner's ceiling is more like 7-9 goals unless I see a new skill set he never really showed at Arsenal.
konliney - My proposed team for the coming gameweeks:
Begovic-Vorm
Simpson-De Laet-Enrique-Kompany-Bosingwa
Young-Silva-Sessegnon-Brunt-Dyer
Suarez-Dzeko-Rooney
Any thoughts?
You've got a nice balance of guaranteed minutes and upside in the team and it looks like a solid unit. I would be a touch concerned about the back line as I still feel Bosingwa is a rotation risk which makes Simpson and De Laet more likely to be pressed into action. While I see the value of both this pair, you really need to be picking your spots with them rather than being pressed into playing them when the fixture is bad. It is also worth nothing here that Norwich and Newcastle's fixtures no not particularly gel well so be sure to track injuries/suspensions to ensure you don't need to play both these cheap options.
I like the team and wouldn't necessarily change anything but one idea would be downgrade Sessesgnon or Brunt (Sessegnon for me, based on Bendtner's arrival) to someone like Moses, Cleverly or Petrov and then switch De Laet for a 4.5m option from a more reliable team like Senderos (if he keeps his first team place), Woodgate, Knight or Brown.
Eric008 - Hey, what do you think about Rosicky from Arsenals new lineup, he should have enough minutes and FPL points if Wenger completes Wednesdays transfers?
When everyone is fir, my guess for the Arsenal first team would be Song, Wilshere, Gervinho, Arteta, Benayoun and Van Persie in a 4-2-3-1. You've then got Ramsey, Walcott, Rosicky, Arshavin and Chamakh competing for minutes off the bench. Wenger will clearly engage in some rotation and my prediction would well be wrong but I'd be surprised if Rosicky (who rarely started in the past) locks down a first team place ahead of the new arrivals.
FFFan - Quick question re fantasy prem: how much attention do you pay to team values? With prices now rising, dropping the wildcard early this week (and making some shrewd transfers based on numbers of transfers in) could allow players to boost their team value by a mil or so - given the long game week. In theory, couldn't the extra half a million you could make this way be incredibly useful later in the season?
I've tried to do this before, and indeed I recommended employing this strategy during the free wildcard in GW2 until the administrators finally confirmed that no price rises will occur. It's probably worth doing but to be honest you are unlikely to make significant profit given that a 0.2m is required just to make 0.1m. If you know for sure you want to play your wildcard then it's worth a shot, but be sure to not transfer anyone out who you will eventually want back as just a 0.1m price rise there will actually cost you 0.1m.
Colin - Here's my team, any comments before Saturday very welcome.
Given, Vorm
R. Taylor, Warnock, S. Taylor, Enrique, Senderos
Young, Silva, Jarvis, Moses, Cleverley
Rooney, Aguero, Dzeko
You're on a similar wavelength to Konliney above which suggests we're all likely to win or lose together! Again, I like the team a lot of would not necessarily change anything but the same defensive concerns exist. I would think Ryan Taylor will miss out with the arrival of Santon and it looks risky to hold two Newcastle defenders anyway (on a side note, I missed Santon off my transfer deadline analysis but I'm very excited to see his arrival. I've seen him in action a couple of times before and he looks like he could be a dynamic attacking option. I'm surprised to see him receive a 4.5m tag and he could well be the best Newcastle defender to own sooner rather than later). I like Senderos but Grygera's arrival clouds his place a bit while Warnock looks risky considering you already own Given.
I would try and steer clear of owning two defenders from any team unless they are one of the elite few, or it's a short term plan to take advantage of a good run of games. I very much like the depth and quality in your front line and midfield with the only issue being that you're going to find yourself with a similar side to many others in the league (but that seems to be hard to avoid right now).
EddieO - I'd consider Nasri over Silva (I have the latter atm). Nasri is a differential, proven point magnet and should start regularly whereas Silva (quality player) has a well recognized propensity to assist the assister.
I was feeling pretty smug in my rating of Silva as the single best fantasy option to own this year, until Nasri arrived and potentially ruined everything. Silva took a back seat on many attacking moves against Spurs and as you say, was often playing the ball which sprung open the defense but was eventually not the final pass. The good news is that they're in the same price range so Silva owners should be able to make the switch without too much of a headache if this trend continues. Personally I plan to stick with Silva for now but my expectations for him have been revised down a touch and a sustained period of deeper play will force us to rethink that position.
I hope to get plenty done over the long weekend with no games to watch so continue to check back or follow on Twitter at @plfantasy for the latest posts.
You're absolutely right and explained it much better than I did. I find it easier to explain in baseball where we have averages rather than soccer/football where the stats tend to all be counting stats (number of goals scored, assisted etc). I think the analysis still kind of holds up in that a player like Gyan is unlikely to continue to take 10 shots a game and not his the back of the net, but you're right that he won't suddenly score every 2 shots to make up for this shortfall. What I really need to do is find out every players shots per goal ratio and then see who is under-performing their historical rate this year. Perhaps that can be be a project over the long weekend. Thanks for the post, I really should have done better here.
Daniel Brian - Long, Yaya Toure or Whelan and Suarez
I would suggest that Yaya looks a little overpriced now with the arrival of Nasri and Aguero as he will often be forced back into the two 'defensive' position in the 4-2-3-1, pushing his scoring more into the Barry range (~100 points). I'll assume you had around 14.0m which gives you 5.3m if you go with Suarez. In that range I still like Moses (5.0m) and if you want to go even cheaper I think Dyer (4.5m) has some value when the fixture is right. I'd take both of these players over Whelan at the moment.
amtosh - When can we expect that post about wildcards and is there a previous one you've done which is pretty current? I'm considering whether or not to play mine this week and replace Torres with Rooney, Bent with Dzeko, Silva with Yaya Toure and Ben Watson with Arteta as well as finding a good replacement for Senderos. I stand to lose 12 points or use my WC.
There are a few general thoughts from this post last year, but I'm not sure it'll tell you more than you already know. Obviously you'd like to delay using the wildcard as long as possible, but given that you can use another in GW20-23 it is far from a disaster to use it now. My main advice I'd have (and I'll try and expand on this this week) is not to chase points by picking 'form' players or players who have a great matchup this week. Remember that you need to stick with this lineup for 16 gameweeks save for your weekly freebie.
Specifically on the players you mention, I would do Rooney for Torres is a second, and Bent to Dzeko also makes sense (even if I am still scared of rotation). I think Yaya's value has declined with Nasri's arrival, though you could argue Silva's has too (see answer below). I like Arteta at Arsenal but I'd like to see how many set pieces he gets before buying. I'm not sure you need to play your wildcard to be honest though I can see the attraction of grabbing Dzeko for this week's Wigan game. The cautious side of me would suggest bringing in Rooney now and then ditching Bent or Silva next week.
stooshermadness - I'm not sure I agree with your analysis of Bendtner as a prospect after transfer. In the 2 years he actually got decent minutes, he scored 9 goals in what was effectively 19 games and in the other he scored 6 goals in what was effectively 13/14 games. And he was often pushed out on the right wing, obviously not his best position. I think with a run of, say, 2700 minutes at Sunderland, the numbers suggest 12-14 goals, certainly in Fletcher or Rodellega ballpark
Good analysis, and I can't argue with any of those facts. However, my main issues with Bendtner are when he has scored, and who helped him score, those goals. I haven't been through his complete history but from memory and via quick scan of his goal history, many of his goals have come from either sub appearances or late strikes in garbage time. Of course, they all count but I wonder if some of his goals are a product of the sheer number of chances Arsenal create rather than his particular talent.
He had a nice run in 09/10 where he scored 5 goals in 8 games but outside of that he's rarely shown that he is a natural goalscorer. I actually think he's a decent player and was probably hard done by at Arsenal, but he was far from prolific when playing with Fabregas, Nasri, Van Persie etc so how will he fare with Colback, Cattermole, Larsson and Gyan playing him in? If he was 5.5m I might be interested but there is a premium baked into that 6.5m tag based on the fact that if he got the chance to play at Arsenal he would have been doing so with an elite crop of player (you know, before they sold them all).
Finally, of the 11 players to score 13 or more goals last year, only OdemwingieBendtner is in the same class as Odemwingie or Bent (Campbell is the outlier here and the reason why you could be right). For me, Bendtner's ceiling is more like 7-9 goals unless I see a new skill set he never really showed at Arsenal.
konliney - My proposed team for the coming gameweeks:
Begovic-Vorm
Simpson-De Laet-Enrique-Kompany-Bosingwa
Young-Silva-Sessegnon-Brunt-Dyer
Suarez-Dzeko-Rooney
Any thoughts?
You've got a nice balance of guaranteed minutes and upside in the team and it looks like a solid unit. I would be a touch concerned about the back line as I still feel Bosingwa is a rotation risk which makes Simpson and De Laet more likely to be pressed into action. While I see the value of both this pair, you really need to be picking your spots with them rather than being pressed into playing them when the fixture is bad. It is also worth nothing here that Norwich and Newcastle's fixtures no not particularly gel well so be sure to track injuries/suspensions to ensure you don't need to play both these cheap options.
I like the team and wouldn't necessarily change anything but one idea would be downgrade Sessesgnon or Brunt (Sessegnon for me, based on Bendtner's arrival) to someone like Moses, Cleverly or Petrov and then switch De Laet for a 4.5m option from a more reliable team like Senderos (if he keeps his first team place), Woodgate, Knight or Brown.
Eric008 - Hey, what do you think about Rosicky from Arsenals new lineup, he should have enough minutes and FPL points if Wenger completes Wednesdays transfers?
When everyone is fir, my guess for the Arsenal first team would be Song, Wilshere, Gervinho, Arteta, Benayoun and Van Persie in a 4-2-3-1. You've then got Ramsey, Walcott, Rosicky, Arshavin and Chamakh competing for minutes off the bench. Wenger will clearly engage in some rotation and my prediction would well be wrong but I'd be surprised if Rosicky (who rarely started in the past) locks down a first team place ahead of the new arrivals.
FFFan - Quick question re fantasy prem: how much attention do you pay to team values? With prices now rising, dropping the wildcard early this week (and making some shrewd transfers based on numbers of transfers in) could allow players to boost their team value by a mil or so - given the long game week. In theory, couldn't the extra half a million you could make this way be incredibly useful later in the season?
I've tried to do this before, and indeed I recommended employing this strategy during the free wildcard in GW2 until the administrators finally confirmed that no price rises will occur. It's probably worth doing but to be honest you are unlikely to make significant profit given that a 0.2m is required just to make 0.1m. If you know for sure you want to play your wildcard then it's worth a shot, but be sure to not transfer anyone out who you will eventually want back as just a 0.1m price rise there will actually cost you 0.1m.
Colin - Here's my team, any comments before Saturday very welcome.
Given, Vorm
R. Taylor, Warnock, S. Taylor, Enrique, Senderos
Young, Silva, Jarvis, Moses, Cleverley
Rooney, Aguero, Dzeko
You're on a similar wavelength to Konliney above which suggests we're all likely to win or lose together! Again, I like the team a lot of would not necessarily change anything but the same defensive concerns exist. I would think Ryan Taylor will miss out with the arrival of Santon and it looks risky to hold two Newcastle defenders anyway (on a side note, I missed Santon off my transfer deadline analysis but I'm very excited to see his arrival. I've seen him in action a couple of times before and he looks like he could be a dynamic attacking option. I'm surprised to see him receive a 4.5m tag and he could well be the best Newcastle defender to own sooner rather than later). I like Senderos but Grygera's arrival clouds his place a bit while Warnock looks risky considering you already own Given.
I would try and steer clear of owning two defenders from any team unless they are one of the elite few, or it's a short term plan to take advantage of a good run of games. I very much like the depth and quality in your front line and midfield with the only issue being that you're going to find yourself with a similar side to many others in the league (but that seems to be hard to avoid right now).
EddieO - I'd consider Nasri over Silva (I have the latter atm). Nasri is a differential, proven point magnet and should start regularly whereas Silva (quality player) has a well recognized propensity to assist the assister.
I was feeling pretty smug in my rating of Silva as the single best fantasy option to own this year, until Nasri arrived and potentially ruined everything. Silva took a back seat on many attacking moves against Spurs and as you say, was often playing the ball which sprung open the defense but was eventually not the final pass. The good news is that they're in the same price range so Silva owners should be able to make the switch without too much of a headache if this trend continues. Personally I plan to stick with Silva for now but my expectations for him have been revised down a touch and a sustained period of deeper play will force us to rethink that position.
I hope to get plenty done over the long weekend with no games to watch so continue to check back or follow on Twitter at @plfantasy for the latest posts.
Comments
To my question,i'm wondering what you think about Arsenal midfield, i currently have Ramsey, and i'm wondering what would happen with him when Arteta and Wilshere come around. who do you think will take the top spot of the triangle (in the hole MF)
It will be interesting to see what happens actually as a lot of people are suggesting Arteta is a like-for-like replacement for Fabrecas but he never really played in the same advanced attacking positions for Everton. In fact it might be suggested that he will be in a selection battle with Wilshere and Ramsey will play the in front of (one of) them (similarly to what he did for Wales on Fri night).
Having said all of this Wenger may throw Arteta in at the deep end and push him forward. I'd keep an eye on it before making any decisions.
Thanks for such an informative blog, it's really given me some new angles to consider when choosing teams or deciding between players.
How do you think QPR's recent transfers will function together?
Luke Young was my Villa Defender in a rotation pair with Jonathan Woodgate. Now that hes moved over to QPR I'm trying to decide if he's worth holding on to on the off chance that QPR suddenly become a mid table force.
What are your thoughts? My alternative strategy is to bring in Santon as a replacement given how good Newcastle's defence has been so far this season.
Would like to hear your oppinion on my actual squad, i dunno if i should play my WC.
Given/Ruddy
Kompany/A.Cole/Baines/Senderos/Simpson
Nani/Toure/Larsson/Moses/Ferguson
Rooney/Bent/Holt
Iam thinking about making 3 transfers atm. :
Nani --> Silva
Toure --> Arteta
Bent ---> Dzeko
So i would lose 4 points by this way, but would save my WC for later. What ya think ?
Given
Ward
Taylor S
Bosingwa
Anderson
Mata
Young
Nasri
Sturridge
Dzeko
Rooney
Vorm
Jose Enrique
Brown
Dyer
More than likely will be changing Bosingwa to Kompany just got him there to see if I can get lucky. Should have picked him up last week though as he went up 0.2.
They seem to be holding up a lot better than the other promoted sides, though that could partly be due to Vorm making them look good.
Hilario, Vorm
Evans, Jose Enrique, R.Taylor, Rangel, Senderos
Brunt, Silva, Young, Taarabt, Ferguson
Suarez, Torres, Rooney
Who would you swap for Torres, Aguero or Dzeko (or other? Also, I'm now worried about Taylor, Senderos, Evans and Hilario. When do you advise spending the 4 points to make 2 transfers? Or should that only ever be a last resort or very special circumstance such as a team having 2 matches during a gameweek?