Thursday, April 14, 2011

Gameweek 33 Mercenaries

With five teams (Bolton, Fulham, Man City, Stoke and Wolves) not in action this week a few of us might be scrambling for one-week mercenaries this week. With the DGWs falling to Arsenal, Chelsea and Birmingham the one week filler pool is somewhat limited with the big boys tending to be largely overpriced. Saying that, there is some potential within both these teams and others with good fixtures if you need a quick fix.


Theo Walcott (6.9m) - he isn't extremely cheap at 6.9m but given his production I think he justifies a much loftier price. Over the season he ranks 4th among midfielders in aPoints and 9th overall. The downside, of course, has been his inability to stay on the field but Wenger tends to play him at home with Walcott starting the last 7 home games he was available for, so you should be able to avoid the dreaded 10 minute garbage time appearance. At worst I would expect 120 minutes and given the majority of that should be against a Liverpool side who have conceded 26 goals away from home, Walcott makes a great replacement for any of the mid range options missing this week (such as Dempsey, Silva or Milner).


Jack Wilshere (5.1m) - this pick is purely based on the fact that Wilshere should play twice this week, has shown an ability to catch the bonus judges' eye (12 BPs) and is available at a cost significantly below his teammates. With just one goal and three assists his upside is low but for this price tag you're buying into safety and I think Wilshere gives that as good anyone in this price bracket.


Jermaine Beckford (4.7m) - of all the non-double teams this week, Everton have the best fixture (Blackburn have conceded 2.4 GPG on the road) but not necessarily the players to take advantage. The silver lining could be the chance this presents Jermaine Beckford, who has quietly added 7 goals this year, despite playing just 1000 minutes (Torres has 2 more goals despite playing 2300 minutes). With Cahill, Arteta and Saha all looking to miss out again this week, the onus is once again on Beckford to lead the line for Everton and that could well lead to fantasy spoils for owners looking for quick replacements for Elmander or Davies. Normally his public spat with Moyes would scare me but with so few alternatives it seems likely Beckford will once again get the nod.

Thomas Hitzelsperger (5.1m) / Scott Parker (5.7m) / Mark Noble (5.3m) - the true definition of a one week play as West Ham get a very favourable fixture (Ast H) followed by two of the three hardest around (@Che, @MnC). The Hammers have been much improved of late with 8 goals in their last 3 home games despite entertaining Man Utd and Liverpool. The problem is picking which of this trio will have success in a given week. Each of the three have had a double digit game in the past few weeks but have also suffered through several 2 pointers. I really like Hitzelsperger's game but Noble's penalty duties and Parker's bonus ability makes him the odd one out here. I would advise Parker as the safer option likely to give you points in that 4 - 6 range with Noble having a slightly higher upside.

Charlie Adam (5.9m) - I'm sure anyone who reads this blog and takes a shred of notice of anything I say already owns the impressive Scot but just in case, Adam makes a particularly useful play this week as he welcomes a Wigan side who are yet to register a clean sheet in 2011.

Roger Johnson (5.3m) - Birmingham do enjoy a DGW but with one of those games at Stamford Bridge it's hard to get overly excited for any of their players. With little promise up front we need to look along the back line to find some value and I think it's Johnson who can best deliver (provided he proves his fitness in the next day or so). With Sunderland really struggling right now, Birmingham's first game of the week ranks as the second best around so anything they could pick up at Chelsea (likely appearance points at best) is a bonus. With a trip to Anfield on the horizon I see Johnson as purely a one week plug but a potentially valuable one nonetheless who can contribute across all categories (2 goals, 2 assists, 20 BPs this year).

There are obviously other bigger names who warrant attention this week (Van Persie, Lampard, Fabregas etc) but unless you're inexplicably holding a Torres or Gerrard, it's unlikely you have the cash to bring these players in at short notice. More focus will of course be placed on these players in the upcoming captain ranks later in the week. Until then, why not post your question below or at @plfantasy.

11 comments:

Chris Oien said...

I actually did bring on Drogba on short notice, swapping out the injured and GW-less Tevez. Hoping that Torres starts riding the bench now, where he clearly belongs.

Nick said...

Would you do VDV=>Walcott? Problem is I would lose .4 on the sale of VDV...

I could also do Nasri=>Walcott, but I lose .2 on that...

Would Nasri and Walcott be overkill, but is it ok for a DGW? But if each only play one game of the week is it too much trouble over nothing?

anthony said...

Chelsea have quite an 'easy' run in, so you could look at luiz, Terry or Cole if you have the money. Benayoun could even be worth a gamble now he is back from injury. Nick, It's not worth doing the Nasri to Walcott switch, as the idea is to get extra games out of your players, but saying that, Nasri hasn't been in the best of point scoring form lately.

Mell 10-11 said...

I agreed with Anthony that taking advantage on the numbers of double gamers is the way to go not transferring out one of their first eleven.

Between the three doublers, Chelsea are having the best set of fixtures, no doubt. Dont give up on VDV yet as they have home fixture against Arsenal and we already knew what is the result between them last season. A breathtaking thriller with a lot of goals:D

mark said...

thinking a doing gordon => cech, vdv=>walcott for a four point hit. is it worth it?

VDV has been so poor lately must be time to drop.

Chris Oien said...

Yeah VDV is crap lately, who cares if you take a hit of .4 on a guy maxing out at 3 points a game.

Chris Glover said...

Chris - I should have touched on Tevez here. He is a really hard player to deal with if you're sat on a profit. With an off week it's really hard to leave such a pricey player on the bench but with @Bla, WH and then the DGW it's hard to get rid of him. Given Chelsea's DGW though I think you made the right choice if you like Drogba. I would not sell tevez for anyone but Drogba or RvP.

Chris Glover said...

Nick - I feel that VdV (who has been dormant in 2011) is definitely sellable and while the loss of cash hurts I don't think you will be bringing him back (granted he gets the DGW in GW36 but with one of those games @MnC I'm not sure he holds too much value). I like Walcott a lot as a fantasy player and holding him and Nasri does hedge you somewhat against rotation (at the very worst you lock in 180 minutes assuming Arshavin played both games this week). Their fixtures are good and I'd be pretty happy riding out Nasri and Walcott for the remainder of the year, accepting the fact that I will suffer the odd 1 pointer when Arshavin plays. Both have a sufficient ceiling to justify that move if you believe Arsenal can hit the weak teams hard.

Chris Glover said...

anthony - agree with all your comments. despite Nasri's form it's hard to ever transfer out a player coming into a DGW even if he isn't guaranteed 180 minutes. Chelsea rank as the best defensive team from here on by some distance so if you have the spare cash a combo of Luiz AND Terry/Cole is worth a thought. I like Luiz as a must own due to his goal threat and lower price tag.

Chris Glover said...

mark - who is your other GK? If Cech is a massive upgrade over your other starter then the 4 extra appearance points for Walcott/Cech should ensure you break even plus you get the upside of extra games. I would make that move.

Chris Oien said...

Chris G. -- Yeah, and I sold Tevez before the news came out that his injury will likely keep him out for all but maybe the last 2 games of the season. Turned out to be a slick move.