Thursday, February 10, 2011

Gameweek 27 Rankings

Barring any unseasonable weather this is likely to be the last significant double gameweek of the season so you better make it count. I won't re-tread much covered ground here but I would urge, if not demand, that you trundle over to the double gameweek analysis posted earlier in the week.

Clean Sheet Rankings
(Team clean sheets - opponent failed to score)
  1. Arsenal (4 - 5) and (4 - 5)
  2. Birmingham (4 - 5) and (4 - 3)
  3. Liverpool (6 - 6)
  4. West Brom (1 - 6) and (1 - 5)
  5. Blackburn (5 - 3)
  6. Man Utd (7 - 4)
  7. Stoke (2 - 4) and (2 - 2)
  8. Sunderland (7 - 2)
  9. Blackpool (0 - 5) and (0 - 2)
  10. Tottenham (1 - 2) and (1 - 0)
  11. Newcastle (3 - 3) and (3 - 4)
  12. Chelsea (3 - 2)
  13. Fulham (6 - 5)
  14. Bolton (3 - 3)
  15. Everton (2 - 3)
  16. Wigan (3 - 1)
  17. Wolves (1 - 2) and (1 - 3)
  18. Man City (4 - 0)
  19. West Ham (0 - 2)
  20. Aston Villa (0 - 0)
Some will no doubt take objection at not ranking all the DGW teams at the top but, for most, the fixtures are just too tough to justify such a ranking. If your plan is to take the 4 appearance points and run then you might want to adjust the rankings accordingly but I stand by the above as giving you the best shot at clean sheets.

Attacking Rankings
(Predicted goals for the week)
  1. Arsenal
  2. Blackpool
  3. West Brom
  4. Tottenham
  5. Birmingham
  6. Newcastle
  7. Stoke
  8. Wolves
  9. Chelsea
  10. Blackburn
  11. Man Utd
  12. Everton
  13. Sunderland
  14. Liverpool
  15. Aston Villa
  16. West Ham
  17. Fulham
  18. Man City
  19. Bolton
  20. Wigan
Captain Stats (Non Arsenal players need not apply)

So far in the captain poll, Van Persie has 85% of the vote and with good reason. He is the clearly the form player in the Arsenal team with a frankly ridiculous 50 points over the past 4 gameweeks and 5 QGs in the last 6. When you consider that he has faced just one team who concede more than 1.5 GPG this season but gets two of them this week, his upside for the week is unmatched. His status as a differentiator is gone (21%) but he still ranks well below Berbatov and Tevez and is still a way to gain some points over the unattentive managers. The presence of Chamakh worries me a little as does his flu, so the potential for rotation or early withdrawal is there but so long as you think he can play 120 minutes or so, he should have enough time to shine.

Fabregas, who himself has 47 points over the last 6, is still a differentiator (11%) and it's this point which makes him intriguing this week. I don't believe in players being 'due' a goal but given the number of shots he has had over the past few weeks, the regression to the mean would indeed suggest that a goal will come soon. His 10 bonus points over the past 6 weeks are great and he generally produces points in more categories than Van Persie. Like Van Persie, Fabregas has the flu but he makes a slightly safer pick than the Dutchman due to the lack of obvious replacement for him and his status as club captain. Picking him is a risk and there's a real possibility it could be a Nani/Berbatov GM24 situation, but sometimes you need to make a bold decision to gain some ground.

A decent outside bet is Theo Walcott who has been astonishingly good from a fantasy perspective this season and is currently level with Van Persie (151) and just one behind Fabregas (152) in aPoints. My concern are his 11 bad games compared to just 6 quality games. In fact, in every game but one he has either contributed double digit points or 3 or less. His 5 double digit games are as many as Van Persie and Fabregas combined. He is surprisingly owned by more managers (15%) than Fabregas so his differential potential is lower than you might expect but you can be sure that the vast majority of those owners won't be captaining him and so you could gain ground if you need to make a last gasp move.

Bacary Sagna is the pick of the defenders with Djourou injured but despite the great fixtures I do not think this unit is captain worthy right now. They were a shambles in the second half against Newcastle and while a single clean sheet looks like a decent bet, the chance of double digit production from Sagna and co looks unlikely.

As always thanks for reading and I welcome all comments/questions below or at @plfantasy. You can also check out more fantasy ramblings over at Back Page Football where I write a weekly column.

7 comments:

rchampion31 said...

Hi Chris

Nice site, keep it up mate

Just a point on Charlie Adam who you strongly recommend (justifiably) in your dgw analysis.
There has been a mix up on the fpl site and Adam has in fact been booked 9 times in the premier league this season, not 8 as stated on the fpl site. So tread carefully as 1 booking means a 2 match ban and knowing Adam that booking won't be far away.

Simon said...

How wonderful that I have the choice of all of your top three captain picks! This week is make or break for me, I should make up a lot of ground. Fingers crossed...

The bigger concern for me is how do I cover for Arsenal's missing gameweek next week? Without playing any arsenal players, I'm forced to go five at the back, and that hasn't looked a very good idea all season. Do I sell a walcott/Fabregas/Van Persie?

rchampion31 said...

how many ars, brum, tot players do you have simon?
Most people will be playing 5 at the back in gw28 after loading up on attacking dgw players.

Chris Glover said...

rchampion - thanks for the advice, well spotted. That makes him less attractive as a buy though I will probably hold him through his suspension as I'm sat on a tidy profit.

Simon - the good news is that Arsenal-Spurs game might be moved to GW28 hence ending your concerns. If not, then you'd have to move one of your three on depending on who looks good next week (with the Utd double GW, Nani or Berb would be the obvious picks).

Steven said...

Chris or anyone else,

What conditions would cause the Spurs/Aresnal game to get rescheduled to GW28? What are the chances I guess is what I'm asking. right now I have 6 or 7 guys that will not be playing in GW28 which is a bit daunting.

Chris Glover said...

Steve - I think if Arsenal win/lose in the FA cup and avoid a replay, both teams would be free in the midweek (to play at the sametime as MnU-Che). So barring something unforeseen I see the chances at about the rate of Arsenal beating Leyton Orient. If anyone has any other insight, please share.

rchampion31 said...

Chris, Steven

In regards to the london derby possibly being placed back into gw28. There has been a lot of speculation that's what would happen if Arsenal didn't require a fa cup replay so I took the initiative and sent of e-mails to arsenal & tottenham basically explaining the reasons it seemed a likely date and asking if it was a possibility, weak or strong.
Arsenal weren't any help but this was tottenham's response -

Thank you for your email.

As you are aware, we still do not have a date for the Arsenal game.
However, at the time of writing it is very unlikely to take place in
early March.

Regards

So seems they haven't been eyeing up that date as we assumed.