Sunday, November 7, 2010

aPoints

I have alluded to aPoints before and the individual rankings through GW10 can be found to the right but I haven't ever fully explained what this rating shows.

Simply, it is my way to giving an adjusted number of points a player 'should' have scored, if injuries/suspensions hadn't occurred and every player had faced the same schedule.While this is admittedly somewhat absract as injuries and suspensions do occur, it is nevertheless useful as form and schedule are a better indication of future success than the fact that a player has missed time to date through injury.

If you lead this category then you will be, in my calculations, the best fantasy player over the course of the season if the current trends continue. 'Best' being defined as achieving the most points as opposed to the best value (which is dealt with by aPPMS).

I will continue to track this stat through the season and I like it as a key indicator of fantasy value to date. It can also be used to indicate future success by looking at the difference between aPoints and actual points scored. A high number indicates that a player is underscoring due to either a lack of playing time (such as Lampard) or a tough schedule (Tim Cahill). I will include these numbers on my new stats page once I work out how to best present it.

4 comments:

Oshada said...

Hi Chris, do you think it's worth taking a points hit to do Nani > Nolan and Chamakh > Torres? Thanks

Colin said...

Chris,

I'm having a pretty horrible time right now. My team stands as:-

Foster, Jasskeleinen.

Coleman, Bosingwa, Konchesky, O'Shea, Williamson.

Fabregas, Albrighton, Adam, Malouda, Van der Vaart.

Berbatov, Drogba, Odemwingie.


This week I was saved by the forced substitutions of Albrighton and Coleman! For too long now I have been suffering <40pt weeks sometimes even <30pt weeks under the assumption that Drogba, Malouda and Berbatov will click back into gear, but it hasn't happened yet. All the while, my lead in my league has been chipped away by those who have held Nani and the top Chelsea defenders. I'm thinking it's time for action! For me Drogba and Malouda have dropped off pretty dramatically from their early season form and a double substitution for Torres and Nani is immenent. Nani has been in must have status for the last few weeks (and I haven't had him!!) while Torres looks to me like he is recovering his form. I'm still in a bit of a quandry regarding Berbatov, who was out this week, but hasn't really been getting stellar results lately. I'm also pretty unhappy with O'Shea and Bosingwa, but that will have to wait for another week to sort out! I guess what I'm asking is, do you think I'm justified in this analysis?

I'm reasonably happy with some of my low cost players. They've all played pretty regularly (Odemwingie excepted for injury lay-off) and have more often than can reasonably be expected chipped in with decent scores. My difficulty lies more with the more expensive players of my side. Are there better options out there for our stud players? Right now, I potentially have Berbatov, Drogba, Malouda and even possibly Fabregas on the potential chopping block. I'll certainly be keeping Fabregas and Berbatov for a few weeks yet, to see if they can move back into form, but mainly because I don't see too many other options out there!!!

Simon said...

Chris,

Fabregas has got to go, surely!?

I bought him the week before he came back, since then he's scored so few points, it's killing me. I can't have £11.8m worth of player sat in my starting 11 each week scoring 1 or 2 points. I want to saeel him and get Nasri or Cahill.

I know you're a big fan of Cesc, but given his price tag, isn't it silly to keep hold of him and hope he comes back into form?

Ryan said...

Chris,

Which outcome is more likely - Spurs scoring against Sunderland at home (White Hart Lane) or Stoke scoring against Birmingham at home (Britannia Stadium)?